CFHC Talkback For News Story #49:
Newest Talkback: 05:37 PM 08-13 EDT

Proved Wrong
04:59 PM EDT - 12 August 2000

I gave up a little too early on the Gulf system. It now looks like it could become a depression tonight or tomorrow. Mike A. picked up on it before I did.

Anyway, we'll be watching it closely. So much for the weekend prediction, but that's what makes the tropics interesting.

Alberto is amazing, for being so far up north and achieving category 3 status. This season has been really amazing so far even if nothing has made landfall yet.

Comments or Questions? Use the comment button by the story Headline.

Nice Satellite Image of Atlantic (IR Colorized)

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #7 (of 7 total)

Posted by: Mike (
Posted On 06:33PM 12-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNUX*)

IM sorry the URL I posted with my last message did not work, I believe it's corrected now.
The system in the Bay of Campeche is developing right on schedule as posted by my early message here on CFHC.

This system has all the potential to be a significant cyclone, I have stated my concern about the trough that has moved into the gulf, this trough for this time of year is remarkable and is shown up well on water vapor imagery.

The cyclone should be closing in on tropical storm status later tonight and I anticipate more of a northwestward motion to begin.

I have full updated information on this developing system on my site as well, There you can access tropical Model tracking from BAMM,BAMD,A90,CLIPPER once the system has been named, also the live storm chat room is always open and will be again tonight to discuss live the possibility's this new system may have on the gulf coast, you are all welcome to join in the chat.

GOM (#2)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 06:35PM 12-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNRQR*)

The interesting thing will be, which way will it head? This trough we have is so unusual, it has me concerened. Guess we will find out soon enough, eh? Colleen

Beryl?? (#3)
Posted by:
Perry Williams (http://N/A) Location: Douglasville, Georgia
Posted On 07:39PM 12-Aug-2000 with id (RPYNRTPNRPPNQTU*)

In answer to Colleen's question, climatalogically--most tropical storms and hurricanes in the south central Gulf of Mexico --in August--move toward the west or northwest--the trough has only a very slim chance of turning this developing system toward Florida--Residents of the Western gulf coast--especially from Morgan City, LA westward should monitor this system closely. It is over very warm ocean waters--85-87F--in an enviroment conducive for developing--possibly explosively as Hurricane Bret did only last year.
I really like you're site--Best of luck!!

GOM Tropical Disturbance (#4)
Posted by:
Richard Byett ( Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 01:14PM 13-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNTPNRTT*)

Well i had lost faith that the Gulf of Mexico disturbance would develop. It fell apart last night and i did not expect it to reorganise as well as it has done. Convection is increasing on the eastern semicircle of the system, with some banding now becoming evident around the north and northwestern parts of the system. It appears to be organising quite rapidly today. I will wait to see what the recon flight has to say before i make any predictins but i think we could see TD5 from this sytem shortly.
Any way i have to dash, back later with my forecast on this system.
Take care.

depression in Gulf (#5)
Posted by:
Rick Shade Location: Mobile, Al
Posted On 02:53PM 13-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNSV*)

The depression sure looks better defined. I understand too that the forecast centers are not sure exactly what might happen. This one will be interesting...albeit not much of a threat yet to the Florida people. However, one current forecast indicated that it is on a drift to the NNE....this is what Opal did, and that storm went from a depression to cat 4-5 in short order. Not that all the variables are in place for that...still, the current SST's and the high pressure on top indicate that anything might happen. I don't have any feeling either way on this one...but it sure looks like it could develop and give us all something to think about. Long range predictions are nothing more than a guess at this point......

TD #5 forms (#6)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay FL
Posted On 05:09PM 13-Aug-2000 with id (VTNQRNQPUNQUW*)

Tropical Depresion has finally formed at 93W/23.5 N...It is stationary right now...but expected to move to the NW , but erratically, since the center will be reforming as it strengthens. It should be a storm tonight. Pressure 1008mb. Any ideas on where this will end up...I haven't got a clue since i've been out most of the day and haven''t looked at any of the conditions.

Thoughts on TD#5 (#7)
Posted by:
Ed Dunham Location: Melbourne, FL
Posted On 05:37PM 13-Aug-2000 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNTW*)

TD#5 at 23N 93.1W at 21Z slowly, make that very slowly, drifting to the west. Expected motion to the northwest toward south Texas with landfall in about 48 hours (perhaps a little longer). Looks like NHC is leaning toward the BAMM model which is not a bad choice for embryonic systems. Wouldn't surprise me to see an eventual track adjustment slightly to the left (more toward Brownsville and then Laredo rather than Corpus Christi). Probably at or near Cat I just before landfall. Looks like Beryl is on its way to the Texas farmbelt. Past (best guess) positions:
00Z 21.5 92.5
03Z 21.7 92.5
06Z 22.0 92.6
09Z 22.3 92.7
12Z 22.6 92.8
15Z 22.9 92.9
18Z 23.0 93.0
21Z 23.0 93.1

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