CFHC Talkback For News Story #50:
Newest Talkback: 11:09 AM 07-03 EDT

Persistence
09:18 AM EDT - 02 July 2001

Didn't happen, so the Gulf low has become part of another system. Chances of development now: 

(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
         * [----------------------]


Persistence didn't happen. During the evening it just fell apart. I didn't want to break the cycle of bad Gulf predictions.

Outside of that we have nothing much going on. Waves in the eastern Atlantic will continue to get ripped apart. So the original first week of July projection now stands high again.

The other areas, between Puerto Rico and Bermuda is more of an upper level feature and don't think anythin will come of it.

Hope everyone has a good Independence Day. This site most likely won't be updated until next week unless something occurs.




NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Defiant Visible Infrared More...
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #18 (of 18 total)
EAST BAHAMAS (#1)
Posted by: NICK Location: ORLANDO FL
Posted On 02:31PM 02-Jul-2001 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNRQS*)

looks intresting on visible loop / infared loop storms are firing up around its circulation, dont know if this has any tropical charact, but something to look at anyway
ok (#2)
Posted by: scottsvb Location: Tampa
Posted On 04:41PM 02-Jul-2001 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNVW*)

well TD2 never formed as expected but it had
its posibilites. The main thing was that there
was no complete full circulation and any activity
was during the day which doesnt hold well for a
full tropical system. I first gave it a 5/10
hoping to see somepersistance by the following
morning, but as the evening came on I quickly
dubed it down to a 3. By morning its gone.LOL.
With the models and pressures high and bad upper
level conditions, it was hard for this to develop.



East Bahamas (#3)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, FL
Posted On 05:11PM 02-Jul-2001 with id (VTNRTTNQNQY*)

I know that this sytem is a upper level low. But whats the chance that is could work down to the surface. Lots of convection with the upper level low as it heads slowly east and east-northeast. At any rate may increase are chances of rain by the latter parts of the work week in Florida. Also looking at the shear, not much in that area.
Upper Level Low (#4)
Posted by: Ed Dunham Location: Melbourne, FL
Posted On 07:04PM 02-Jul-2001 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNQUX*)

Actually, I'm not ready to write off the ULL in the southeast Bahamas. It seems to be trying to build down toward the surface. With the high pressure ridge forecast to build in from the east, system should get nudged to the west or west northwest. Normally I would not have expected anything quite this early, but exceptions have happened. Although it was a later occurrance, the system reminds me somewhat of Erin in 1995. This might become an interesting feature in about 36 hours. Any thoughts?
Cheers,
ED
Bahamas (#5)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland
Posted On 08:13PM 02-Jul-2001 with id (VTNQRNQPVNUT*)

Hi, Ed!! Long time, no see! I was impressed with the activity during the day near the Bahamas, but as of yet, or maybe I missed it, the "system" we are all looking is pretty much being written off by everyone, including the NHC. I, myself, don't write things off until they're gone. As it is, this area seems to have been quite active the last 7 days or so, and it wouldn't surprise me a bit to see it develop into a surface low at all. We'll have to wait and see what happens...persistance is the key..
Talk to you soon!!!!
Colleen :-)
Bahama Upper Low (#6)
Posted by: Mark Location: Ft Myers Fla
Posted On 09:34PM 02-Jul-2001 with id (QRNWWNQSTNQQQ*)

Strong tropical wave previously along 65w/66w now along 25n69w 18n70w 12n68w moving W 20 kt. This wave has increased in amplitude over the past day or so...apparently the result of its interaction with the regressive upper low centered near 23n72w. Significant low-level/surface wind surge noted to the west of wave axis to 55w N of 15n where winds increase to 20-25 kt. Because of the regressive nature of the upper-low... downstream ridging seems to be increasing slightly as the low digs to the SW. If this trend continues...and the vertical southerly wind shear currently over the wave diminishes...the ambient environment through which the wave is propagating could improve for tropical cyclone development. Given this possibility and the persistent nature of convection occurring with the wave...this area will continued to be monitored closely. Numerous strong convection is developing over a large area from 21n-25n between 67w-71w.
Bahama Upper Low (#7)
Posted by: PEANUTS Location: Hollywood, FL
Posted On 09:46PM 02-Jul-2001 with id (VSNVQNRSPNVS*)

First I'd like to say hello to everyone. Have not posted since last year! Was going to post info from the 8pm Tropical Weather Discussion but Mark you already beat me to it! Anyway it is interesting how quickly things can change from a no chance to we will will have to monitor closely. Could end up being a player in a lot of peoples 4th of July. Hope not but we will just have to wait and see. TO ED, keep posting with your thoughts!!!!
Bahama Upper Low (#8)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, FL
Posted On 09:57PM 02-Jul-2001 with id (RQVNSNQXRNQY*)

Well looking at the satellite tonight sure appears that its holding its own. As convection is holding fairly strong even into the evening. Also sorry for wrong direction I wrote earlier which was W or WNW. Its moving East . Shear less on north side of system aroud 5kts, but around 20kts to south and west of system.
Bahamas (#9)
Posted by: scottsvb Location: Tampa
Posted On 03:11AM 03-Jul-2001 with id (VTNQRNQPSNQUW*)

Just to let everyone know again,,for a system
to look more tropical it must hold or refire
overnight. During the day if it does that its more
of a subtropcial or upper low. Well tonight it
has alittle of both. The upper low is there, but
is there a low level vortex forming? We'll find
out some today and also pressure falls if any?
Also tonight lets see if he fires up some more.
This system I give a 4/10. It will come to Florida
on late WEDS into Thurs.
Bahamas (#10)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland
Posted On 08:26AM 03-Jul-2001 with id (VTNQRNQPUNQXR*)

Well, that's perfect...my husband's birthday is on the 4th of July....which reminds me, I need to go buy him a gift...oops...

Peanuts..great to see you again!!! Hope you're having a good summer!

I am going to go check out the loops...

Colleen :-)
upper leven low (#11)
Posted by: Leo
Posted On 08:50AM 03-Jul-2001 with id (VTNQRNQPVNSY*)

What exactly is an upper level low? Thank you for your time and response.
I see pursistance (#12)
Posted by: SirCane Location: Pensacola, FL
Posted On 09:16AM 03-Jul-2001 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNWX*)

The Bahama wave seems to me holding together, convection is sticking to it, I'm surprised at the NHC for not giving it much of a chance, from what I can tell this is something to watch. BOC looks interesting today as well.
Me too... (#13)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland
Posted On 09:29AM 03-Jul-2001 with id (VTNQRNQPUNQXR*)

I am surprised that they haven't said much about this...I would like to know their reasoning behind the statement that "development is unlikely"..when it appears that development is occurring as we read these posts and watch the loops. Don't get me wrong, I'm not busting on the NHC, just curious. It almost seems as though the TWO and TWD sometimes contradict each other at times, does it not? If the persistance keeps up, I would hope they would say something, at least to get people's attention so they can watch it..we know tomorrow is a holiday and most people will be out and about..and not paying attention to the weather if it's nice and sunny. That's a given....unlike us weather hounds, most people will be more concerned with what they're barbequeing than they will be about tropical development.
I would say that if this keeps up, we should see something soon from the NHC.

Colleen :-)
right on, Colleen (#14)
Posted by: alan Location: Orlando
Posted On 09:43AM 03-Jul-2001 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)

Once again, Colleen, you hit the mark. I don't get it. Maybe they are waiting for the 11:30 to start touching on it. It stayed strong overnight. Isn't that a sign.
I can't get my loops to work, is there an obvious circulation?
Bahama Disturbance (#15)
Posted by: Mark Location: Ft Myers Fla
Posted On 09:43AM 03-Jul-2001 with id (QRNWWNQSSNRW*)

The reason the NHC doesen"t see this area as development is upper level winds continue to be to high and pressures are not falling. The outflow from the upper low is to close to to allow development. Now if the upper low continues to move west away from the disturbance and this wave continues to hold its own, a upper high would develop and upper level winds
will decrease allowing for development. All models at this time show this upper low will weaken and move west along with the disturbance not allowing development but as we all know models are not always right. No matter what, it is impressive on satellite and at least it will increase showers and thunderstorms over Florida for the Fourth of July and Thursday. It still needs to be watched but development is unlikely AT THIS TIME!!!!!!
yep (#16)
Posted by: scottsvb Location: Tampa
Posted On 10:54AM 03-Jul-2001 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNTW*)

He just said it all. Great job
There Is A Circulation (#17)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland
Posted On 11:08AM 03-Jul-2001 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNTW*)

That you can see, although it's still being classified as an "upper level low" or in some cases, an "upper or mid-level low" now. If you watch the wv loops, you can see the ridge they are talking about very clearly.

Having just watched TWC, they are saying what Mark just said also. That development is "just not likely at this time"...of course, they say whatever the NHC says, so we know what the thinking is down in Miami. HOWEVER...no one thought "Allison" was going to be a $1-2 BILLION dollar storm that included 46 deaths, either.
Development (#18)
Posted by: Carl Ruck Location: Ft Myers
Posted On 11:09AM 03-Jul-2001 with id (QRNWWNQSRNQSR*)

This area could develope if what Mark says does develope with this upper air low.
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