CFHC Talkback For News Story #53:
Newest Talkback: 05:43 PM 07-28 EDT

Next Week may be Interesting
08:45 AM EDT - 11 July 2001

Space Shuttle Atlantis on mission STS-104 s a launch for the International Space Station scheduled tomorrow, the first with the new Block II style engines. Weather could be a factor today and tomorrow, so it could be pushed back until Friday, July 13. Along with the new engines the Moroccan emergency landing site will be nonfunctional too (due to threats). I for one hope the weather and rain holds off enough for it to get off tomorrow fine.

It's still blasé this week as far as storms, but it doesn't mean there is nothing to watch out for. I give you the wave near 40 degrees west...

Wave Mongers, awaken!
Ok, so what does this mean? Well not much in the immediate future, however, when you couple it with dropping fronts as this may approach Florida sometime next week, then you will have to watch. If this thing does anything it won't be any time soon. (However I could be surprised) It will be the thing to watch the next few days and over the weekend and especially into next week for us here. The Caribbean should be on the watch too in case the environment does become more favorable for development.

If it does develop I don't expect it to be soon (can't rule that out, though), and it's more likely that it won't, but here's the scale anyway.
(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)

The MRF is the one that does the most with it, but still its a little far off to speculate. I do think it will need to be watched.

The tell tale sign though is to watch for persistence of the thunderstorm activity in the wave.

Michael Bryson (creator of the Stormtrakker Hurricane Tracking Software, and who runs a pretty good site for original graphics) has moved his webpage and is now at He also has a new piece of software up called Nexrad3 which is a small Windows app that lets you quickly visibly review radar data from any NWS office.

Caribbean Hurricane Page - Updates from the various Caribbean Islands.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Defiant Visible Infrared More...
Other commentary at: Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center - Accuweather's Joe Bastardi - SCOTTSVB's Hurricane Update Center - Jim Williams' Hurricane City - Gary Gray's Millennium Weather - Even More on our Links Page

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #43 (of 43 total)

NRL (#1)
Posted by: NICK Location: ORLANDO FL
Posted On 11:03AM 11-Jul-2001 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNRY*)

well the navy is in on it , just went up on there site as an invest/ the watching begins

Tropical Development (#2)
Posted by:
Mark Ruck Location: Cape Coral Florida
Posted On 11:33AM 11-Jul-2001 with id (QRNWWNQSRNQYR*)


Well here we go. Upper air forcasts look favorable over the next 3-4 days and thunderstorms have increased some over night so we may have the beginings of our next system. Most models don't pick up this system but the MRF is showing some sign of development over the next few days. Conditions look favorable and with a weak low pressure evident all we can do is wait to see what happens. Its just in time to make my vacation interesting next week in the Bahama's!!

Something to watch (#3)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, FL
Posted On 11:41AM 11-Jul-2001 with id (RQVNSNQXRNSR*)

Well we may something going in middle way between africa and Lesser Antilles near 40 degrees west and 10 north. Conditions appear favorable with very little shear at all in that area. Just something to keep an eye on because it does have a low associated with it....

Time will tell (#4)
Posted by:
Rick ( Location: St. Petersburg
Posted On 12:32PM 11-Jul-2001 with id (VUNSTNXYNRPQ*)

Only time will tell on the next wave, Just watching more and more convection at the present time if it holds together it could be a factor . August is yet to come !!

Low at 40W (#5)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 01:14PM 11-Jul-2001 with id (VTNQRNQPRNTT*)

I've taken a cursory look at this wave, and to concur with others:

--For now, it has an environment of weak shear ahead of it.
--SSTs are favorable, and will become more so as it tracks further west

However, its latitude doesn't have much going for it, aside from placing it within a favorable SST isotherm. It also looks a little amorphous on closer investigation. *If* it does develop, I doubt it will do so for at least 24-36 hours, barring some major change in its organization.

model crystal ball gazing (#6)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 02:41PM 11-Jul-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNYU*)

two things of interest may come to pass. one is the 12n40w wave/low.. it looks pretty good for a july cape verde type disturbance. shear isnt a huge problem for the short term, subsidence isnt too rough. it has carried a nice little bubble of moist air with it, and is sticking out of the itcz like it would have to.. but the TUTT looms 3-4 days ahead... almost certain death. this little system might get going in the time it has, but even if it does develop it could just be a 48 hour wonder.
the other thing i found intriguing was some of the later model runs, particularly the avn and nogaps. both are predicting lows to bloom along the front currently plowing southward in the east, placing them in the NE gulf and off the florida east coast. not 1015 mb lows, stuff more along the lines of 1009, 1007. the pressure where i am right now is around 1008, and the ambient pressure around the SE u.s. should remain low into the weekend.. rumor of a threat, something to watch for at least.

my two cents (#7)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 03:55PM 11-Jul-2001 with id (VSNRSRNQPSNQT*)

It looks like it is getting somewhat more organized. There is a somewhat central area of convection that looks to be growing in the past few hours.

HUH! (#8)
Posted by: jimmy
Posted On 04:21PM 11-Jul-2001 with id (QVTNQQQNYSNQY*)

That is about as healthy a non classified system as I have ever seen. I think we will have a depression by this time tomorrow.

looking better (#9)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 04:31PM 11-Jul-2001 with id (VSNRSRNQPSNQT*)

This low is looking more and more organized as I type this. I would hardly be surprised if it was classified a depression by 11 Pm.

Posted by: NICK Location: ORLANDO FL
Posted On 05:18PM 11-Jul-2001 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNSW*)


convection is key (#11)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 05:23PM 11-Jul-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNQQR*)

steve lyons on twc is a former nhc guy, keeps in close contact with the deciding minds down there in coral gables. last tropical update his verdict was, existing low, but they want to see more extensive convection before giving 93L (as nrl monterrey has dubbed our low) the nod to depression. so if there is to be a classified system in the next few advisories, there needs to be a blossom. if there really is anything to 93L, the nocturnal convective maxima tonight will give us a tropical depression. seeing a poleward outflow axis taking shape would also be more convincing.

Nocturnal Convective Maxima (#12)
Posted by:
Rick D. ( Location: St. Petersburg FL .
Posted On 05:34PM 11-Jul-2001 with id (VUNSTNXYNRPQ*)

Nice job Hank , I have not heard that in a long time !!!! Yes that will tell , I think your right that this bears watching. We shall see

depression? (#13)
Posted by:
Rich Byett ( Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 05:57PM 11-Jul-2001 with id (RQSNQRRNQTPNRQ*)

Just to pass on a comment posted at Mikes East Coast Tropical Weather Centre... nhc received a late ship report of 33 knot winds from the SSE.. they say they may issue advisories soon.. but no earlier than 0300Z

Low (#14)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 06:11PM 11-Jul-2001 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNRQ*)

The latest 1 km. visible imagery show a fairly well-organized low. The IR imagery isn't quite as impressive, though, and I think the banding could use some improvement.

Is it just me, or has the system gained some latitude? If it's the real deal, then I think it's a good sign for development--it seems that depressions/storms often adopt a WNW track after formation, even if their progenitor disturbance originally tracked due west. Coriolis deflection, perhaps.

please help (#15)
Posted by: solar
Posted On 06:17PM 11-Jul-2001 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNUV*)


TUTT...I think (#16)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 06:45PM 11-Jul-2001 with id (VSNRSRNYXNTV*)

I believe it stands for Tropical upper tropospheric trof. Please correct me if I'm incorrect.

TD#2? (#17)
Posted by:
Mark Ruck Location: Cape Coral Florida
Posted On 07:23PM 11-Jul-2001 with id (QRNWWNQXPNXU*)

Strong tropical wave previously along 39w now along 41w S of 14n moving W 10-15 kt. A 1011 mb low pressure center continues along wave near 10n42w moving NW 10kt. Although convective activity has diminished this afternoon...the persistent circulation associated with this low is still significant and is in an environment favorable for tropical development (see middle/upper-level synoptic discussion). Since convection associated with tropical systems often undergoes a diurnal cycle of development/ is possible that regeneration of convection may occur overnight. Thus...this system will continue to be monitored closely by the National Hurricane Center over the next couple of days. Currently...numerous showers/scattered moderate convection occurring from 9n-12n between 40w-44w.

Pressures are falling this afternoon and thunderstorms are regenerating to the north and west of the center. Satellite loops do show a definit center moving nw. I do believe we will see a TD develope overnight and a TS durring the day tommorow. Beyond this point I do see a developing trough over the eastcoast in about 5 days and IF THIS DEVELOPES I do see this one turning north before it gets close to the U.S. But this is too far away to give any type of forecast this for me is only a hunch because I'll be in Nassau in 5 days. My fingers crossed!!!!

New Info (#18)
Posted by:
Mark Location: Cape Coral Florida
Posted On 07:26PM 11-Jul-2001 with id (QRNWWNQXPNXU*)

I just had a call from a reliable source in Miami and a depression could be anounced at 11pm or 5am.

TD or TS (#19)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, FL
Posted On 07:32PM 11-Jul-2001 with id (VTNQRNQPUNQWY*)

Hmmm. I wonder if they'll wait until 5AM just to see if the convection persists overnight OR announce it 11pm because of ship reports. Thanks for the info, Mark.

Colleen :-)

Solar and Alex K (#20)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, FL
Posted On 08:00PM 11-Jul-2001 with id (VTNQRNQPUNQWY*)

Alex, you were right on...I asked a friend of mine who used to be in the Navy and was stationed in New Orleans to explain it for me....I hope this helps:

The TUTT is a persistent feature that develops in the upper air (7-10 mile range) zone and is a pressure decrease. It doesn't usually manifest itself to lower levels. Now remember what happens to the flow of air in the northern hemispere when it meets a low? First it bends to the right and then slips around the low counterclockwise.

Now note the streamlines as they hit mid ocean. They take a bend southward (to the right), and all the bends occur along a line - a trough. That is the TUTT. (It's tropical since it is not baroclynic - no cold or warm fronts involved.)

It's important in the tropical scheme of things because as the wind bending reaches down out of the westerlies and into the trade winds, a vortex is developed in the upper atmosphere. If this couples with a disturbance moving through lower levels, shear is mitigated, and conditions for potentially intense tropical development at the point of the disturbance is greatly enhanced.

I thought he explained it rather well..well enough that I understood it...I hope that helps answer your question, Solar.

Colleen :-)

Well put Colleen (#21)
Posted by: Gary B Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 08:11PM 11-Jul-2001 with id (RTNQVTNVNYY*)

Could not have said it better myself.

WOW (#22)
Posted by: solar
Posted On 08:20PM 11-Jul-2001 with id (QURNQVSNQYTNQYT*)

Thank you Colleen!!...I knew you would be the one to explain it...thanks again

You're Welcome! (#23)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, FL
Posted On 08:58PM 11-Jul-2001 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNQXQ*)

No problem ...actually, it helped me, too. He's very good at explaining things so I understand them.

Colleen :-)

convection (#24)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 09:12PM 11-Jul-2001 with id (VSNRSRNQQQNRSV*)

Look at the latest colorized infared for the low. Convection seems to be currently waxing. I'll say it has a 35-40% chance to be upgraded at 11, and a 60-70% chance by tommorrow, if the convection persists. Also, thank you Colleen;you are always very helpful.

Convection & Something Else (#25)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, FL
Posted On 09:16PM 11-Jul-2001 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNQXQ*)

Actually, Alex..I thought (and I could be wrong) that the convection we're seeing now is more impressive than what we saw in the last loop. The last loops showed mostly blues? and this latest loop is showing more yellow/orange. If this continues overnight, we may have TD#2 by tomorrow. (although I could be wrong, the last time I looked before now was about 6:30 or 7.)

One other thing I saw out there: the wave that just came off the coast of Africa looks very nice...(well, as nice as waves can look, if you get my drift). It's lower in latitudes than the other system....but is there any chance for development of this new one, and if it did develop, would it hinder the other storm?

Colleen :-)

Next System on the way (#26)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, FL
Posted On 09:21PM 11-Jul-2001 with id (RQVNSNQXRNUU*)

Well after looking at the infrared satellite. Convection looks real nice inflow and ouflow look good, also shear is fairly light near and around the system. I'am thinking update at 11 PM will bring our second system this year, but they may hold off till 5 AM to see if convection holds its own as mentioned ubove in earlier posts

I'm not angry-just wanted to point out something (#27)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 09:38PM 11-Jul-2001 with id (VSNRSRNQQQNRSV*)

Colleen, sorry if you interpreted me incorrectly, I might have not made myself clear enough when I said the convection was increasing. That was what I was trying to say.


Agree Alex (#28)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, FL
Posted On 09:40PM 11-Jul-2001 with id (RQVNSNQXRNUU*)

Convection has decreased in intensity just a bit has there was more in the way of reds earlier. Never the less fairly well organized. Colleen the system off africa is looking fairly intense but I'am not to confident it will develope do to the system ahead of, but I could be wrong. Needs to pull a bit further north like the system ahead of it did.

TD#2? (#29)
Posted by:
Mark Location: Cape Coral Florida
Posted On 09:44PM 11-Jul-2001 with id (QRNWWNQWWNRU*)

Pressure measured down to 1010mb and dropping. I see thunderstorms redeveloping near the center. Upper air favorable and will become more favorable as it approaches the islands with a southerly flow which should increase outflow and allow for development to continue. Folks in my opinion we have one....VERY SOON!!

organizing (#30)
Posted by:
Keith Location: orlando
Posted On 09:47PM 11-Jul-2001 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNQUT*)

On the last loops, the system appeared to be flaring up just a little after waning. There also appeared to be a bit of tightening. What does everybody think?


Wave (#31)
Posted by:
Mike C. ( Location: New Smyrna Beach, FL
Posted On 09:47PM 11-Jul-2001 with id (RPYNQUVNRTPNQY*)

Yep, I think my chances for development tonight are around 60%, and tomorrow morning around 75%.

Pretty good odds for this system. Actually I think it'll have a harder time in the long run if it develops now than if it waited a bit.

Your right Keith (#32)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, FL
Posted On 10:04PM 11-Jul-2001 with id (RQVNSNQXRNUU*)

After looking at the latest satellite, the system is flaring up again and like you said it is tightening. I guess I spoke just a bit soon should have waited for new satellite image. Still think theres a 60% or so chance of this developing at 11 PM. We shall see...

Update (#33)
Posted by:
Rick D. ( Location: St. Petersburg FL .
Posted On 10:06PM 11-Jul-2001 with id (VUNSTNXYNRPQ*)

Hey Mike , I see another update coming? Looks as if it is developing into something

Classification? (#34)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 10:37PM 11-Jul-2001 with id (VSNRSRNQQQNRSV*)

Has the low been classified as a depression? Thanks

depression or storm (#35)
Posted by:
Keith Location: orlando
Posted On 10:39PM 11-Jul-2001 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNSQ*)

I am far from an expert but my guess is that this is at least a depression right now if not a minimal storm. It has a disernable rotation to it already and convection continues to flare in the p.m. hours. We'll see! How does that saying go, "if it walks like a duck....."

It has been classified (#36)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 10:43PM 11-Jul-2001 with id (VSNRSRNQQQNRSV*)

I guess the answer to my question is yes.

TD #2 (#37)
Posted by:
Rick D. ( Location: St. Petersburg FL .
Posted On 10:45PM 11-Jul-2001 with id (VUNSTNXYNRPQ*)

#2 is here

TD Number 2 (#38)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, FL
Posted On 10:49PM 11-Jul-2001 with id (RQVNSNQXRNUU*)

We got a TD.

TD Number 2 (#39)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, FL
Posted On 10:49PM 11-Jul-2001 with id (RQVNSNQXRNUU*)

We got a TD.

TD2 (#40)
Posted by:
John C. ( Location: Cocoa
Posted On 10:53PM 11-Jul-2001 with id (VUNSSNQWNYW*)

Yep, TD 2 is here, Mike is writing a new artical as I type this. Stand by:

The Discussion (#41)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, FL
Posted On 11:01PM 11-Jul-2001 with id (RQVNSNQXRNUU*)

NHC is saying that it will go into tropical storm formaion tomorrow which I can see for sure. Then they go onto say it will be effected by the upper low in a few days. I think thats a bit early to say if it will effect it or not. Never the less TD#2 has formed.

Alex...You're Right (#42)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, FL
Posted On 11:37PM 11-Jul-2001 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNUQ*)

I did misinterpret your post...I saw "waning" not "waxing"....duh! Sorry! ;-)

test (#43)
Posted by:
Mike C. ( Location: Cocoa
Posted On 05:43PM 28-Jul-2001 with id (VUNSSNQWNYW*)


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