CFHC Talkback For News Story #53:
Newest Talkback: 03:15 PM 08-18 EDT

Tropical Storm Beryl Landfalls in Mexico
07:27 AM EDT - 15 August 2000

Beryl's center was further west than the NHC anticipated, and therefore it was much closer to land. It made landfall overnight in Mexico as a medium range Tropical Storm.

Alberto, in Tropical Storm form, is still in the Atlantic, moving south currently, but far far away from land.

Next chance of development lies to the East Atlantic, but there is noting imminent right now. We'll be watching

Comments or Questions? Use the comment button by the story Headline.

Nice Satellite Image of Atlantic (IR Colorized)

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #7 (of 7 total)

Alberto Heading S/SW?? (#1)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 11:49AM 15-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQWVNQYXNRSU*)

At the risk of repeating myself, I reposted this here in case it got missed:
Ok,guys this is the strangest storm I have ever is now moving s/sw, and although they are saying it will NOT BE a threat to the US MAINLAND, what effect, if any, will it have on the other 2 systems out there? My other question is this: how can they be so positive that it won't have any effect? Just curious, as this season has seen some rather strange things, and this is just one of them. Any comments are appreciated....thanks, Colleen

Post from Mike's forum (#2)
Posted by: Bill Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 11:57AM 15-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Hi all!

I posted this in Mike's forum, thought I would repost here, as you may find it of interest int erms of 'maintaining perspective' on where we are and where we are LIKELY to go this season.

Season may be a strong finisher like the last few.

Pardon my typos (I just cut and pasted!).

Great forum , keep up the great comments!

RE: Beryl...what a busted forcast. A case of GIGO unfortunately, not all NHC s fault (not a NHC basher!)

here's my paste:

As the old saying goes (even in the Bible), it is not how a thing starts but how it finishes that counts.

We've had a hurricane (major) and a minor tropical storm in the last two weeks (plus a depression, and possibly at least one unnamed TS)...the hurricane is now a tropical storm, and holding on, may be a hurricane again if it goes far enough south. Anotehr significant wave is crossing the Atlantic.

So far this season we've had 5 tropical depressions (declared...and probably a couple that weren't). Seems like a pretty fair start to me!

The season is just now about to wind up. Look at it this way, we didn't have Bret on the maps last year until the 18th, so we are 'ahead of the game' compared to last year.

The worst is yet to come. It is possible the CV season will not be a real hot one, but there are plenty of other areas for storms to form. Part of what is hurting the current prospects is the unusual weather pattern that is a hybrid summer/fall pattern. If it breaks down, we will get busy fast with powerful storms that threaten land, possibly late int he season. If it doesn't, we still will have a decent year I think, numbers wise.

It's too early to call, one way or the other. But the overall pattern still points to a busy, strong season.

Time will tell!


Developing System? (#3)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay FL
Posted On 07:09PM 15-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNUT*)

Tropical wave at about 43W/13N appears to be getting better organized, with a hint of a circulation developing. Conditions are favorable for development, and this system could become a TD in the next 24 hours, and perhaps Chris in the next couple of days. Thunderstorms are beginning to develop around a concentrated area near the center of convection. This one could sneak up on us as it has been moving steadily to the west, and should be near the Lesser Antilles in a couple of days. Cheers!

downtime? (#4)
Posted by: Frank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 08:39PM 15-Aug-2000 with id (SRNQPPNQPNQWP*)

with beryl ashore and just a couple of semi-active tropical waves, it looks like the only entertainment for the next couple of days will be alberto doing stunts out in the middle of nowhere (not too much to look at, but i can think of more boring fish spinners--the kind that recurve neatly and do what the models predict). good harmless fun for now.
dont anyone plan on getting too comfy; it is that time of year. i wouldnt put money on anything out there tonight though. if i had to it would be the wave approaching 50w. it's tumbling just a little, but will need to hold down a solid chunk of convection for a half a day or so before it starts looking spooky to me.
take it easy, all.

Mid-Atlantic Development (#5)
Posted by:
Ed Dunham Location: Melbourne, FL
Posted On 11:11PM 15-Aug-2000 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNUT*)

Actually I think that the wave near 12N 47W has an excellent chance of development. Probably a TD within 36 hours and a TS within 48. This one could spin up to a rather significant storm. Don't ask me why the intuition - I just see a common trend toward a gathering large scale circulation. Its in undisturbed warm waters. Its also about 450 miles south of where Alberto was when Alberto first crossed 47W. The track has been due west for over 50 hours.

Keep Your Eyes Open (#6)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 09:06AM 16-Aug-2000 with id (VTNQRNQPUNQXV*)

I would keep an eye not only on the system the Ed mentioned, which has the potential to become a very strong factor in our weather in the coming days, but also the wave that just came off the African coast which is looking quite well defined. As Ed said, intuition works well sometimes, and I wouldn't write off ANYTHING in the Atlantic at this point in time. However, I do have a question: will the one at 12N 47W have any effect on the one that just came off the African coast, i.e., churned up waters that could inhibit it's developement? Thanks, Colleen

Joining Storms (#7)
Posted by:
Pam Location: Houston
Posted On 03:15PM 18-Aug-2000 with id (RPYNQQSNSQNRPR*)

Wonder if Alberto will swing down and sweep up Chris and fall in love and create one Giant Hurrican ! Think it's possible?

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