CFHC Talkback For News Story #54:
Newest Talkback: 02:17 PM 08-17 EDT

Loopy Alberto
07:29 AM EDT - 16 August 2000

Alberto is now the only storm being tracked. It is currently fairly weak, but expected to hold steady for a bit. It's doing an anticyclonic loop which is a semi-rare occurance for Atlantic storms. (Last storm to do this was Roxanne, I believe) It will evenetually head back east and away. It is no threat to us. It's just in a prolonged spin-down period.

Alberto gets first dibs today since Beryl is gone and there really isn't much going on elsewhere at the moment.

The waves in the east Atlantic are only looking "ok" this morning. The one nearer to the Caribbean isn't too organized and the one off Africa is only somewhat better. Neither one will form today, but could later if they persist. (If so then the one just west of Africa is more likely)

It's a fair time to remind folks that Hurricane Bret did not form until August 19th last year, so this quiet time really has no significance.

Comments or Questions? Use the comment button by the story Headline.

Nice Satellite Image of Atlantic (IR Colorized)

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #22 (of 22 total)

Spin up over Dominican Rep (#1)
Posted by: Bill Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 01:01PM 16-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Anyone notice this, seems to be getting a little convection around the lunch hour. I blew it off (no pun intended) as an upper air system but now I wonder.


Looks like the waves east of the islands are trying but can't quite get it together yet.

Alberto will come further south than thought (already has).



East of Fl (#2)
Posted by: Bill
Posted On 01:05PM 16-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Looks like some organization is also being attempted east of the Bahamas, little spins ups within a larger vortex. I know there is an upper trof there, but these appear to be surface features, no reflections of upper system.Or

Alberto eye (#3)
Posted by: Bill Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 01:13PM 16-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

In the 1545 Z vis Goes, the eye is returning, rather largish at this time with some Ci, Alberto is (of course) intensifying as it moves over warmer water ( and as the shear relaxes).


Storms (#4)
Posted by:
Mike C. ( Location: Orlando, FL (Currently)
Posted On 02:21PM 16-Aug-2000 with id (RPWNSPNWTNRPU*)

The storm east of the Carib looks better now that the African one. I spoke too soon.

And darn it if Alberto isn't loopy in more ways than one.

Caribbean System (#5)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 02:43PM 16-Aug-2000 with id (VTNQRNQPUNQXR*) of the guys on ECTWC found some interesting data from the models that are saying "tests" but give almost the exact coordinates of this system. Also, the realtime sat loops from the caribbean show it is definitely becoming better organized with a comma shaped convection area that looks like it is trying to wrap right around the low. Also, Recon may be going out tomorrow and the NHC has said in it's latest TWD that this is a 1012 mb low. I think this one we need to watch, and watch carefully. You may want to check out what this guy said on Mike's comment page and let us know what you is listed in response to my post at the top of the board, I believe. Thanks Colleen

Surface low, 24.4/69.0 (#6)
Posted by: Bill Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 02:45PM 16-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Looks like a low is developing at this location, a circulation center is visible in close-up VIS pics and IR shows convection flaring at the end of this trough line.



Low east of Bahamas (#7)
Posted by: Bill
Posted On 02:58PM 16-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

oops- meant 25.5/69.5.


Bahamas (#8)
Posted by:
Mike C. ( Location: Orlando, FL (Currently)
Posted On 03:27PM 16-Aug-2000 with id (RPWNSPNWTNRPU*)

Colleen I saw that. I'm thinking that the low east of the Bahamas won't do anything, but we will need to watch it.

The wave east of the Caribbean looks like it may organize too, though. But there is nothing that makes it a sure bet. Right now I'm thinking 3/10 for the low east of Bahamas and 4/10 for East the Caribbean for chances.

Nothing I would consider an "immediate" tropical cyclone formation alert or anything like that.

NRL listing (#9)
Posted by:
alan Location: orlando
Posted On 04:45PM 16-Aug-2000 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)

After dropping the system at 12N46W, the Naval Research Labratory has started watching it again. It's dubbed 91L Invest. The center is also watching the system in the east Atlantic.

the system at 12N46W (#10)
Posted by: Rick Location: Mobile, Al
Posted On 04:50PM 16-Aug-2000 with id (RQVNXUNWWNQPS*)

the system at 12N46W has a definite swirl, with convection firing up on at least the north and east does one give odds on it? The system appears geared to fire up....within 12-18 will be a depression, and within a day of that...a storm...might as well give you all a novice's guess...good as anyone's...right? and if that holds it south and west enough to head at Florida..or worse the Gulf? we shall see

Chris? (#11)
Posted by:
Ed Dunham Location: Melbourne, FL
Posted On 05:28PM 16-Aug-2000 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNWS*)

Colleen et al:
The 'test' output from the models is the technique that NHC uses to gain insight on a system that has the potential for development, i.e., its the same wave that we are all watching. See my post last night under 'TS Beryl Landfall'. I still think that this one will be a TD by the 03Z bulletin tonight and a TS by the 15Z bulletin tomorrow (plus or minus six hours). The trough off the east coast has got to pull up quite a bit before this one could threaten the U.S. - and I don't think that will happen - but remember the old rule with tropical cyclones...never rule it out until its north of your latitude. Time for bowling - later.

Chris soon? (#12)
Posted by:
Richard Byett ( Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 05:58PM 16-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNSWNRUQ*)

Well having just looked at the latest IR imagery (it is too dark now to see anything on the visible!), I must agree that the wave located about 12N 50W looks well organised, with convection showing signs of wrapping around a relatively quiet inactive area. This system will indeed bear watching and i would not be at all surprised to see this one develop. But then again we have said this so many times this season, and nothing has happened! However anyone in the Caribbean might want to start monitoring this system as it looks like it may be quite a threat in a couple of days!

And Alberto is surprising us once again, with the lates forecast calling for him to become a Hurricane once again! And he is continuing a rapid motion southwest too! If this keeps up then we will need to watch him closely again! The current 72 hour forecast calls for him to be located to the northeast of bermuda. as a hurricane. Forget spinning down he looks like he will spin up again!

Anyway, those are the two areas of most interest at the moment, and i will watch them both very closely over the next few days. Take care everyone.

Alberto...104 in Atlantic Hurricane Years! (#13)
Posted by: clyde w. Location: orlando
Posted On 06:42PM 16-Aug-2000 with id (TNQWNRUPNU*)

I read in the NHC post tonight that Alberto is now has the 3rd longest August duration of any storm in the last 100 years. Does anyone have any idea who had a longer track? Just curious. Anyway, his course (WSW @ 15mph) seems very atypical for August, and is much more reminiscent of a lat October or November storm. Does anyone know if this is just an anomoly,or are the weather patterns more like October than August this year?

Ed, I have to remind you of Gordon in 1994 who came from the Outer Banks in NC to affect our weather in central Florida for the 2nd time, although 99 times out of 100 I would agree with you about storms being north of our latitude.

Lastly, about our potential "Chris", the system looks well organized, but haven't we all said that about 5 times each this year and been wrong. I do think this one has potential though, this is the same wave that came off the African coast about 4 days ago with a flurry of deep thunderstorm activity and a huge, if broad circulation.

Happy Tracking,

"is now has" (#14)
Posted by: clyde w. Location: orlando
Posted On 06:44PM 16-Aug-2000 with id (VSNWSNRQSNU*)

Did I actually type that

promenade right, alberto (#15)
Posted by: Frank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 11:55PM 16-Aug-2000 with id (RPYNRURNQXSNQWX*)

alberto is still keeping us company until something else flares, slowly turning right around the upper ridge. doesnt look like a dennis coming back to haunt anyone though. for clyde's question about a longer lasting august storm, the storm that comes to my mind is felix from '95, also a loopy storm in the same general region (a bit closer to home though). lasted about two weeks, which alberto is soon to suprass.. probably by two or three days.
hey ed, that wave/low a couple days out from the islands you were betting on last night looks like it might go after all. if this thing spins off and enters the caribbean, does that trough camping on the east coast grab it or does it pass to the south in the easterly flow? one of you folks ought to be able to read the forecast models better than me..

thoughts, anyone?
take it easy, all.

Track Records (#16)
Posted by:
Ed Dunham Location: Melbourne, FL
Posted On 11:59PM 16-Aug-2000 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNST*)

Clyde - you were correct about Gordon - a rare exception to the rule. The sea temps are typical of August, but indeed the upper air pattern looks more like October. I don't think NHC was correct with respect to Alberto's third longest track for an August tropical cyclone. I just checked out the past 50 years and noted the following:
2000 Alberto 4-17 August (14 days and counting)
1955 Diane 7-21 August (15 days)
1981 Dennis 7-22 August (16 days)
1986 Charlie 13-30 August (18 days)
1987 Arlene 8-28 August (21 days)

Alberto should make third on the list - and probably second - before it meets its demise. The stat is rather meaningless since storms with longer track duration have started in one month and finished in the next month.


Bermuda (#17)
Posted by:
Ed Dunham Location: Melbourne, FL
Posted On 01:10AM 17-Aug-2000 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNSQ*)

Frank: The wave that's starting to organize in the mid Atlantic near 14N 52W is already tracking to the west northwest - probably getting a bit of a pull from Alberto which is regenerating nicely. This system, likely to become Chris, should pass to the northeast of the islands as it gets captured by that protective trough off the east coast. Probably the only threat will be to Bermuda on Monday - but should monitor this one for another 24hrs before getting the folks on that island too concerned.

lifespans and whatnot (#18)
Posted by: Frank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 01:49AM 17-Aug-2000 with id (RPYNRURNQXSNQWX*)

hey ed, you noticed what i noticed. its not really clear how the nhc came up with alberto in 3rd place... and it isnt just the crossing months concept that affects the meaning of alberto's 3rd rating, either. clyde's original question, simple as it sounds, cant be simply answered. im guessing that the nhc was excluding the extratropical phases from the track periods (you do that to charley '86 and there isnt much of a track). some of the storms you mentioned did some weird things eg. were open waves (dennis '81) or sub-depression lows (arlene '87) for portions of their tracks. exclude all that and it skews their lifespans down a bit. come to think of it, alberto was arguably subtropical not 24 hours ago. also, at season's end, as no depression stage advisories were issued on alberto, they will probably post analyze a depression track that adds another day to alberto's official lifespan. you analyze it down to this and it becomes pretty much academic nonsense. maybe in future discussions the nhc will clarify what systems alberto is outlasting, and then the parameters for longevity theyve used will be made clear...
take it easy everybody.

Alberto's Longevity (#19)
Posted by: clyde w. Location: orlando
Posted On 09:07AM 17-Aug-2000 with id (VSNWSNRQSNU*)

Wow, Ed and Frank, you guys certainly do your homework! I was going to ask about the longevity of a storm at tropical storm or hurricane status, and whether that might be what the NHC was referring to, but Frank, you beat me to the punch. At any rate, I agree that Alberto was, for all practical purposes, extratropical about 48 hours ago, although it is certainly a tropical system again this a.m. Thanks for the info--although meaningless, I still find it fascinating (and harmless to our coastlines, which is good).

Happy Tracking,

The Swirl off the Florida Coast? (#20)
Posted by:
Mary Location: LAkeland
Posted On 10:05AM 17-Aug-2000 with id (QRNWWNQVRNYX*)

Is this an upper level low or is this also a surface low. If it is a surface low will it be in our weather picture or will it move northward? Comments?

Tropical Wave 14north 51 west (#21)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 11:53AM 17-Aug-2000 with id (QRNWWNQTUNQWW*)

Hello All,
Well as of 11 am today we still see not new tropical depression but!!! We are very close. Latest satellite pictures are showing definit banding of thunderstorms to the west and north of the center of circulation and low level banding of clouds to the south and east. The reason is some shear is taking place near and to the south and east of the center. Winds in the upper levels are running 20-25 knots over the southeastern half of the storm right now which is slowing development. Winds in the northwestern half drops to around 10 knots. As this wave continues westward I see better chance for development into a Tropical Depression sometime late today or better yet tommorow. Recon flight is scheduled for tommorow afternoon. I do believe we will see this area turn into Tropical Storm Chris before it gets to the Caribean. All people from the Dominican Republic through the eastern islands of the carribean should keep close eye on this one.. Beyond this its too early to tell. There is a chance it could turn north as it gets closer to 70 west due to a upper trough now over the western atlantic. Though this trough is being weakened beyond 48 hours but will wait and see how it developes. If it weakens this may turn into a southeastern U.S. problem in about 5-6 days.

Alberto's Life Span (#22)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 02:17PM 17-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYUNUT*)

1.) The NHC was apparently referring to the life span of storms that were named storms in August alone. So Arlene and Felix count, and Edouard ('96) doesn't.

2.) Alberto may have been in a subtropical weakening trend several days ago, but I doubt that will be reflected in the official best track. It behooves them to be straightforward with this storm, rather than splitting hairs over whether it was subtropical or not--a question which is difficult to answer for many storms today, especially with only a handful of ship reports and satellite.

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