CFHC Talkback For News Story #54:
Newest Talkback: 08:18 PM 08-17 EDT

Models and Yucatan
11:26 AM EDT - 17 August 1999

The story today focuses around a system over the Yucatan which may move into the Bay of Campeche and a system that isn't around (But numerical models forecast it to be).

The System over the Yucatan has a chance when it moves over water, enough so that the Hurricane Center is thinking of sending Recon aircraft out to it since the upper level conditions around it are good for development.

The "phantom" system in the East Atlantic may form according to many of the forecast models later in the week around the Cape Verde area. Right now there is hardly any sign of anything happening, but when this many models suggest formation, it is worth watching.

Some Forecast models: (
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Weather Channel Caribbean Sat Image
Intellicast Caribbean IR Loop
Intellicast Atlantic IR Loop

More Sat images: [N.A. visible] (visible) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #3 (of 3 total)

Yucatan & African System(s) (#1)
Posted by:
Colleen Atwater Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:07PM 17-Aug-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQUY*)

I am thinking that now is the time when things will start to pick up. Maybe the reason the models are hinting at a system is because the ridge of high pressure is pulling up the tropical wave a bit. Just a guess, as I am certainly no expert. The Yucatan system looks impressive, but..where is it headed? The forecasters I have heard say it will move W. So, what do you think? Also, did anyone see the monster wave just about to exit the African coast?? That is one big mean looking wave. Check it out!!!

Yucatan (#2)
Posted by: clyde w
Posted On 06:28PM 17-Aug-1999 with id (TNQWNRUPNU*)

The system over the Yucatan certainly looks impressive, although i'm just glancing at a stationary satellite photo, so I don't know if there is any rotation at this point. Looks like things are defnitely starting a slow, but sure change. Has anyone else noticed how warm the SST's are in the Gulf and east of Florida?

Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 08:18PM 17-Aug-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNQVV*)

As you know from my last posting that i was saying that development over the atlantic was possible this week, im still going with that . In fact im not sure only 1 system will develop, some models are developing a system in the Carib at or around the same time as the system off Africa, models also show the system moveing off to the WNW, thats it for now ill keep posting Mike

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