CFHC Talkback For News Story #56:
Newest Talkback: 10:17 PM 08-18 EDT

Third Tropical Depression of the Season Forms in Gulf
05:01 PM EDT - 18 August 1999

Minor Update 8PM:The pressure of TD#3 has lowered to 1007mb according to Recon aircraft (The automated storm advisories and maps on this page will reflect that at 11PM at the next advisory). The highest potential for landfall is still near Tampico Mexico, but everyone around the Gulf should continue to monitor it. TD#4 may form later tonight or tomorrow in the East Atlantic (near the cape Verde). It is looking very impressive now.

Old Update:
After a long spell of no activity in the Atlantic, TD#3 has formed in the Bay of Campeche. The future track of it isn't too solid right now, although the slide into Mexico scenario is still the most likely.

Major players nearby include an Upper low moving westward North of the system which may stall the system in the Bay of Campeche, which would give it more opportunity to strengthen. It also throws wrenches into any certainty with future track. If it goes into Mexico, how long will it have to strengthen? Movement will be slow. Will it forego Mexico and head toward the US? Texas, Louisiana? Good questions. Too early to tell right now. Folks along the entire gulf should watch this one closely over the next few days. Especially those in eastern Mexico, Texas or Louisiana.

Not to be outdone, the system compex in the east Atlantic looks like it could be getting its act together. But this one we will have time to track. August 19/20th is the historical beginning to the peak of hurricane season (which hits its highest frequency September 15th). This year is finally waking up right during the climatological peak. There is still time left for Dr. Gray's predictions to be realized. (Or something close)

Finally, there is a small Tropical Wave in the East Caribbean that may do something when it moves westward. That is fairly unlikely, though.

For more information on TD#3 see the
Current Storm Spotlight.
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Weather Channel Caribbean Sat Image
Intellicast Caribbean IR Loop
Intellicast Atlantic IR Loop

More Sat images: [N.A. visible] (visible) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #6 (of 6 total)

Quick (#1)
Posted by: Russell Feron Location: Key West, Fl
Posted On 05:16PM 18-Aug-1999 with id (RPTNRQUNRRYNXU*)

5:01 PM your on the ball. I belive TD3 will make landfall to the west/northwest in Mexico befor it becomes a hurricane. Although it may become a tropical storm before it makes landfall.

The waves rolling off of Africa may be another story. You can bet I will be checking back here a lot in the next 30 days...

Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 06:30PM 18-Aug-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNQXQ*)

Well some of you who have seen my postings on this web page know that i have been talking about the wave that came off the AFRICAN coast, well i do believe that what i was talking about the other day has now gotton it's act together, im even convinced that we have a tropical depression out there right now , as far as TD #3 im looking for this system to move into the mexican coast before it ever really get's going, as for the Depression off the African coast and im calling it a Depression, it will move off to the WNW, During the weekend a trough will try and pick this system up and head it off to the north but im not buying it, in short im looking for this system to become a major HURRICANE in the Atlantic, we will have to watch this system close. thats it for now Mike Anderson FL wx

African Depression (#3)
Posted by:
Mike Cornelius [CFHC] ( Location: New Smyrna Beach, FL
Posted On 06:46PM 18-Aug-1999 with id (QUSNSUNWSNQXS*)

In the madness of making sure all my live update code was working properly and prepping for TD#3 I neglected to check out the wave in the last several hours.
Mike is right, it does look like it may be a depression now, if not on the verge of it. We may have two systems to track tomorrow.

Atlantic Wave (#4)
Posted by:
Colleen Atwater Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 08:12PM 18-Aug-1999 with id (QURNQVSNQYUNQXR*)

As a matter of fact, I have been watching the picture coming off the African coast for the last 24 hours (I mentioned "the monster" in my posting yesterday) and although it kind of fell apart today, the latest picture shows a MONSTER of a storm in the water...this is the one we should really watch (although I never depend on the models). I think this one will be a huge hurricane, if it can hold together. Now, I am not an expert by any means, but, it looks pretty big to me. Big means trouble...if it can stay together. Let's keep in touch!!!

Posted by:
Mike Anderson Location: Miami
Posted On 10:06PM 18-Aug-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNQXV*)

I have been looking at some obs and im getting very convinced that we may have a tropical storm on our hands in the next 48hk if not sooner,we have seen modest intensification tonight and are getting ship reports of a 40mph sustained wind out of the SW,i do not see any negative factors for further strengthening so this may be the 1st Hurricane of the sleepy season, SST's are running high in the path of the system as well, deep tropical moisture is also in place for this system to boil overnight, thats it for now , I wanted to say sorry to all who have been reading my postings on thin page and who have supported my thinking that i have not left a likk to e mail me back so im adding it now again im sorry , id love to chat live or e mail with you all and keep up the good work everybody Mike.

Mike's Email or Chat (#6)
Posted by:
Colleen Atwater Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 10:17PM 18-Aug-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNUW*)

Mike...did you leave a link? I can't get it. Let me know. Thanks, Colleen

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