Third Tropical Depression of the Season Forms in Gulf
05:01 PM EDT - 18 August 1999
Minor Update 8PM:The pressure of TD#3 has lowered to 1007mb according to Recon aircraft (The automated storm advisories and maps on this page will reflect that at 11PM at the next advisory). The highest potential for landfall is still near Tampico Mexico, but everyone around the Gulf should continue to monitor it. TD#4 may form later tonight or tomorrow in the East Atlantic (near the cape Verde). It is looking very impressive now.
After a long spell of no activity in the Atlantic, TD#3 has formed in the Bay of Campeche. The future track of it isn't too solid right now, although the slide into Mexico scenario is still the most likely.
Major players nearby include an Upper low moving westward North of the system which may stall the system in the Bay of Campeche, which would give it more opportunity to strengthen. It also throws wrenches into any certainty with future track. If it goes into Mexico, how long will it have to strengthen? Movement will be slow. Will it forego Mexico and head toward the US? Texas, Louisiana? Good questions. Too early to tell right now. Folks along the entire gulf should watch this one closely over the next few days. Especially those in eastern Mexico, Texas or Louisiana.
Not to be outdone, the system compex in the east Atlantic looks like it could be getting its act together. But this one we will have time to track. August 19/20th is the historical beginning to the peak of hurricane season (which hits its highest frequency September 15th). This year is finally waking up right during the climatological peak. There is still time left for Dr. Gray's predictions to be realized. (Or something close)
Finally, there is a small Tropical Wave in the East Caribbean that may do something when it moves westward. That is fairly unlikely, though.
For more information on TD#3 see the Current Storm Spotlight.
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Weather Channel Caribbean Sat Image
Intellicast Caribbean IR Loop
Intellicast Atlantic IR Loop
More Sat images: [N.A. visible] (visible) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.