TD#6 and the Guess Game
06:38 AM EDT - 18 August 2000
What most people want to know is, "Is storm X going to affect my area?" The short answer is its impossible to know. The longer answer involves models, weather reports, climatology and endless satellite loop watching.
TD#6 (and likely the wave east of it) are those type of systems that can get folks going with predictions. Since both of them have a chance to affect the US.
One model (which I don't like because it tends to overdo things with tropical systems) is the MRF model. This had a system just off the Southeast coast in the end of its forecast period. I don't buy that. Other than that model, some others show that there may be less amplification to the east coast trough approaching at the time when the storm would be closer. This would allow it to get closer to the SE US and possibly affect us. It requires that TD#6 stay toward the south mostly. If that happens we will need to watch it. It is too early to tell exactly where it may wind up. The GFDL also is further south than it was yesterday.
So TD#6 is going to be watched closely, it's current track is in a state of flux, but it does have the chance (50/50) right now of affecting the Caribbean islands and eventually the US. So it will bear watching.
If I were to go by climatology alone, I would favor it not affecting us. But that's not the only thing to watch in the list I gave. There are few reports, so it does not apply much yet. (Recon goes out to TD#6 today, most likely making it the next Tropical Storm when it reports)
The last on my list suggested list, staring at satellite loops suggests that the system will nudge just north of the islands. This is the least "scientific" method, however.
Those aren't the only possible things, but those are the bigger ones.
Bottom line, folks in the northeast Caribbean will still have to watch both systems, and we may in the future.
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Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)