CFHC Talkback For News Story #57:
Newest Talkback: 01:28 PM 08-18 EDT

TD#6 and the Guess Game
06:38 AM EDT - 18 August 2000

What most people want to know is, "Is storm X going to affect my area?" The short answer is its impossible to know. The longer answer involves models, weather reports, climatology and endless satellite loop watching.

TD#6 (and likely the wave east of it) are those type of systems that can get folks going with predictions. Since both of them have a chance to affect the US.

One model (which I don't like because it tends to overdo things with tropical systems) is the MRF model. This had a system just off the Southeast coast in the end of its forecast period. I don't buy that. Other than that model, some others show that there may be less amplification to the east coast trough approaching at the time when the storm would be closer. This would allow it to get closer to the SE US and possibly affect us. It requires that TD#6 stay toward the south mostly. If that happens we will need to watch it. It is too early to tell exactly where it may wind up. The GFDL also is further south than it was yesterday.

So TD#6 is going to be watched closely, it's current track is in a state of flux, but it does have the chance (50/50) right now of affecting the Caribbean islands and eventually the US. So it will bear watching.

If I were to go by climatology alone, I would favor it not affecting us. But that's not the only thing to watch in the list I gave. There are few reports, so it does not apply much yet. (Recon goes out to TD#6 today, most likely making it the next Tropical Storm when it reports)

The last on my list suggested list, staring at satellite loops suggests that the system will nudge just north of the islands. This is the least "scientific" method, however.

Those aren't the only possible things, but those are the bigger ones.

Bottom line, folks in the northeast Caribbean will still have to watch both systems, and we may in the future.

Comments or Questions? Use the comment button by the story Headline. has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean.
Nice Satellite Image of Atlantic (IR Colorized)

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #11 (of 11 total)

CHRIS (#1)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 06:57AM 18-Aug-2000 with id (QRNWWNQSRNRT*)

Hello All,
Satellite pictures continue to show TD#6 slowly getting better organized. A large area of convection is expanding to the northwest of the center. The problem right now is where exactly is the center located. Satellite pictures are not conclusive. If the center is under the area of thunderstorms then TD#6 could already be a T.S.. If the center is still on the edge of the convection then two things are taking place. First the center is further south than first thought and 2nd its still under some shear. I have looked at the latest colored satellite loop and I believe its on the southern edge moving more west than what has been reported at the 5am advisory. Until a visible satellite can be seen even the NHC is unsure as reported on there 5am discussion of its position. The area of convection has expanded greatly over the past few hours and I believe the center is starting to move under the southeastern edge of the convection. If this holds true I believe we will have Tropical Storm Chris at 11am and its center is going to be much further west than reported at 5am.. This concerns me greatly for the northeastern islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands for possible watches being posted also at 11am.. We will continue to watch the satellites and tune in at 11am for the official report.
We also are geting concerned with the strong tropical wave near 10n...32w. I do believe we will have another TD to watch by later today or tommorow and this one being so far south may be more of a problem for the carribean early next week. And here we go..hang on!!!!


TD #6 (#2)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 07:32AM 18-Aug-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

Agree Mark. Even if the center is under the convection (I believe it is a little further to the SW, since the first vis pix show the LLCC with a more westward component) we will have to watch this carefully, in the near term and longer term. The trough is breaking down in my opinion, and an area of anticyclonic flow is apparent in the NW Bahamas. I think the GFDL is giving us, and responding to a more s and w mtion.. High pressure is expected to build just north of the FL waters on Monday and Tuesday, and this could spell trouble for the SE US Tuesday/Wednesday if the system continues at it's forecast heading (275 - 285). This system will be declared CHris at 11 am, and interests in the islands need to watch it, but further significant intensification should occur when it passes 65 W. Keep an eye on it all. CHeers!

Good Thinking People! (#3)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 09:12AM 18-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNQVQ*)

I completely agree with these posts. Until we know FOR SURE that this thing is actually having a more w/nw component, it is foolish to think this thing will not affect the Islands at this time. If this system slows down, it has the possibility of missing the trough, which could spell trouble not only for the islands, but later on down the road, for the US Mainland. My main theory is this: until it is past my longitutude/latititude, I am keeping my eyes on it...Colleen

Accuweather Forcast Pretty Ominous (#4)
Posted by:
OrlandoDude Location: O-Town
Posted On 09:41AM 18-Aug-2000 with id (QYRNQRXNQVWNVX*)

If you go to the Accuweather Site and read Joe Bastardi's column, his predictions for next week with the two systems we have been discussing are pretty ominous, especially for the SE Coast. While, I know many people have their opinions of this forecaster, and granted this is a prediction, I think his conclusions for the most part are pretty reasonable. Again this is just another prediction, by another forecaster who at times can be quite very dramatic. I bring it to your attention as an FYI...

Accuweather Site (#5)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 10:10AM 18-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNQVQ*)

Actually, he may be right on the money with his forecast. We will just have to wait and see. Colleen

acuuweather forecast. (#6)
Posted by: jimmy
Posted On 10:19AM 18-Aug-2000 with id (RQVNWWNQUWNR*)

I cant find the forecast. could someone tell me where along the southeast he is forecasting Chris to go.

Joe B. (#7)
Posted by:
Mike C. ( Location: Orlando, FL (Currently)
Posted On 10:23AM 18-Aug-2000 with id (RPWNSPNWTNRRR*)

The GFDL this morning still takes it north of the islands, so that is looking better. But its still a little close. Joe B's predictions are a little on the HurMedia side, but it still is worth watching.

I'm not convinced of the "Southeast US" predictions that have been mentioned around. The chances are a little up, but nothing worthy of the hype that I've seen.

Future course of TD 6, forming TD 7 (#8)
Posted by: Bill Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 10:30AM 18-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Agree that cautious watching is the watchword here, way too soon to even hazard a meaningful idea of where storms will go. Now, if one or the other is in the Turks and Caicos (or thereabouts) and moving west of wnw next Tuesday, then we will have something to talk about !



sat pics (#9)
Posted by:
alan Location: orlando
Posted On 10:42AM 18-Aug-2000 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)

The satillite picture that is linked to this site sure looks impressive. It looks like cold cloud tops have formed a perfect circle. That's odd because the storm wasn't supposed to strengthen.
Also, it looks like it formed a little further north than expected.
On the flip side, the models sure don't give much hope. MRF has it south of Florida in six days. Nogaps doesn't form the storm as strong, but has it off the Florida coast with a big ridge above it.

chris has formed as of 10:30am (#10)
Posted by: scottsvb (
Posted On 10:47AM 18-Aug-2000 with id (VSNRSNQXYNSQ*)

Hi folks,,I will make my first perdictions later as more data comes in,,,but in the mean time chris has formed and should move just along the northern most carribean islands and be near 20N and 65W late saturday night.scottsvb

The Hype About Chris (#11)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 01:28PM 18-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNVS*)

I don't think there is any "hype" going on about Chris, just a lot of thinking and watching. Since we don't know yet it's official position, since it's only based on satellite imagery, right now the best bet is to just watch it closely. There are a lot of factors involved with this storm, and the models are not known for their accuracy all the time. Even the NHC isn't sure right now. I will wait for recon to come back, and I am pretty sure the winds are a little higher than posted right now....Colleen

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