CFHC Talkback For News Story #58:
Newest Talkback: 01:23 PM 08-20 EDT

Tropical Storm Bret Forms in Gulf
06:24 PM EDT - 19 August 1999

Going against what we thought last night, TD3 has pushed through and beat TD#4 to Tropical Storm status. And therefore Bret remains a threat to the Western Gulf Areas.

TD#4 on the other hand is having a harder time than we first thought. Although it is still holding it's own, the shear has gotten the better of it. However we still think that it will strengthen to Storm and Hurricane status later. But we have a while to track this one.

The future of Tropical Storm Bret is still most likely a threat to Tampico in the form of heavy rains. But once again, it is most important for everyone in the gulf (western gulf especially) to take note.

For more information on TD#4 see the Current Storm Spotlight for TD#4.
For more information on BRET see the Current Storm Spotlight for TD#3.
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Weather Channel Caribbean Sat Image
Intellicast Caribbean IR Loop
Intellicast Atlantic IR Loop

More Sat images: [N.A. visible] (visible) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.


- [jc]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #2 (of 2 total)
BREAT IN THE GULF (#1)
Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 12:27AM 20-Aug-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNUV*)

Well im posting late tonight as i have just gotton in , Let's look at what we have tonight, the gulf system has gained TS status barely the TS looks like it will gain some modest intensification now that the upper low to it's north has moved west and out of it's hair, look for a rather small TS BRET, the system now has a good chance to move NW this would give the system more of a chance of impacting the texas coast ill get a better handel on this as soon as i look at the upper obs, TD#4 is haveing a bit of a time with undergoing east shear at this time , but in no way do i think that will last , the shear is forecasted to lesson in the next day or two,Look for this system to really explode when it gets out from the shear ,as for movement the models have a trough picking the system up in the next 3 days, IM NOT BUYING THIS, i dont think that the trough will dig deep ,thus the ridge should hold just enough to keep this system moveing toward the WNW, later toward the weekend a much stronger ridge will be getting ready to build in the Atlantic, and im sure this will become the driving force to send this system to the W, thats it for now as ill post again tomorrow night , have a good night Mike Anderson Florida WX
Bret and TD4 (#2)
Posted by: Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 09:23AM 20-Aug-1999 with id (RPWNVYNTTNTU*)

Although I think it is likely that Bret will move northwest, posing a possible threat to southern Texas, I don't think that the prospects for an east to northeast heading should be discounted just yet. The weak steering flow environment that is currently present over TS Bret is the type of environment that produces erratic and and unpredictable storm tracks on occasion. I do think that the likely track of Bret is northwest; however, I just don't think the future track is etched in stone. Regarding intensity, a strengthening trend should continue over the next couple of days, bringing the storm to hurricane status within the period.

As for TD4, I think it is going to be a while before the system gains tropical storm status. TD4 is not exhibiting a persistent CDO and no significant organizational trends are noted. I think that we will begin to see some steady organization in about 24 to maybe 36 hours as subsidence is no longer present west of the system. I also think that TD4 has a shot at hurricane status several days down the road. Regarding movement, it appears as though the TD is edging for a more westerly track than previously thought. There is still a chance for a re-curvature out to sea, but it appears right now that the system will head west to west-northwest for a while.

Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.
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