CFHC Talkback For News Story #60:
Newest Talkback: 04:44 PM 07-27 EDT

Nothing Imminent
01:03 PM EDT - 25 July 2001

We're still on track for a no-named-storm July, but with a few complications. Namly a system Southwest of Cuba... 

(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
           [------*---------------]
With not much of a chance to develop due to surrounding conditions at the moment. Still we'll need to watch it just because of the area it's in.

In the Gulf is the system approaching Lousiana, which is just gonna run out of room. In the atlantic we have a pretty large wave. It's nearing the borderline time to watch for Cape Verde storms, so we'll give it a little shot. Persistence is what to look for. 

(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
           [----*-----------------]

Lots of good commentary on the Gulf system in the last article, and more comments are welcome. As usual please be cordial.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Defiant Visible Infrared More...
Other commentary at: Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center - Accuweather's Joe Bastardi - SCOTTSVB's Hurricane Update Center - Jim Williams' Hurricane City - Gary Gray's Millennium Weather - Even More on our Links Page

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #42 (of 42 total)
South of Fidel (#1)
Posted by: Cane Man Location: Clearwater, FL.
Posted On 01:22PM 25-Jul-2001 with id (RPXNUQNQQVNQTV*)

Last 2 images on visible NASA site you can clearly make out an eye, however, my understanding is that this isn't a low level circ. and there appears to be alot of wind shear. What do others see?
Wave (#2)
Posted by: Rick D (http://www.flhurricane.com/rad/) Location: St. Petersburg
Posted On 01:25PM 25-Jul-2001 with id (VUNSTNYRNWY*)

I think if the wave that is over Cuba right now can hold together, it will be a player by the weekend. We will have to watch and wait .
cane man (#3)
Posted by: Shawn Location: houston,tx
Posted On 02:12PM 25-Jul-2001 with id (RPWNRQXNRSWNVV*)

the most important thing it looks like to me about this system is that the thunderstorm activity associated with it is dying quickly.i do know that without the storm activity it pretty much is a dead issue.i guess everyone is saying we need to wait a bit on this one;i'm just not sure whether it can hang on long enough.
Odd Man Out? (#4)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 05:51PM 25-Jul-2001 with id (VTNQRNQPUNRS*)

Maybe it's just me, but I don't see anything that looks promising thru the next 48 hours--with the NHC on this one.
cuba system will be history (#5)
Posted by: Shawn Location: houston,tx
Posted On 06:09PM 25-Jul-2001 with id (RPWNRQXNRSWNVV*)

it looks like the system around cuba is taking on a new shape and from what i see will be pulled northward by the junk left over in the gulf.i believe it is already started to happen.it looks like dull times ahead for a few days.
Off To Canada!!!!!! (#6)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, FL
Posted On 08:40PM 25-Jul-2001 with id (RPUNQXXNQYUNQXR*)

I'm off for a family wedding in Canada and will be back on Tuesday....keep on keeping on!!! Shawn...you're learning more everyday....keep up the good work!
Talk to you on Tuesday!

Colleen :-)
As mentioned 2 days ago (#7)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER) Location: tampa
Posted On 10:20PM 25-Jul-2001 with id (QRNWWNQTPNXX*)

The system off africa could be a depression
by friday. 5/10 chance.
scott's call (#8)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 11:24PM 25-Jul-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNXR*)

i think it will take longer, but cape verde's the system to watch. see if anything flares off the virginia capes tomorrow as a piece of our former gulf system moves back off, as well. very outside prospect.
down the road, african waves will just keep coming.
Watch East Atlantic Closely? (#9)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, FL
Posted On 11:38PM 25-Jul-2001 with id (VTNRTTNQNUS*)

As Steve mentioned above this is an area to watch over the next few days as a wave near the cape verde islands moving west I think has some potential to develope (50/50 Chance). Some models I saw try to pick up something in that area. Also monster convection over East Africa now will probably move off the coast later tomorrow. I would moniter this area closely the next few days else where not much to talk about.
Getting close (#10)
Posted by: Keith Location: orlando
Posted On 12:30AM 26-Jul-2001 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNQWT*)

I have a feeling that once we get started this year that we will be busy. Many landfall potentials. It seems like there are too many waves traveling west unhindered. What happens once we have a major system? The ridge that is setting up this year wasn't there last year was it?
Keith... (#11)
Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie, LA
Posted On 01:09AM 26-Jul-2001 with id (VSNQWNQWNQTQ*)

No. Last year the eastern seaboard was dominated by a trough, and much of 1999 was as well. The record year (was it 96 or 97?) where there were 5 or 6 named storms at one time crossing the Atlantic was also a trough year - probably lucky for all of us.

At times when the Bermuda Ridge is the dominant weather feature in the Western Atlantic, you tend to have tropical storms staying on a w or wnw course much farther west longitude. That's because they're guided around the southerly edge of the Bermuda High which, going clockwise, obviously gives a strong westerly influence to the steering and also because there's no trough (with SW shear and guidance) to influence early curviture.

One of the keys to forecasting landfall in this type of pattern is exactly how far west the high advances. If it's off the east coast, you're going to have storms making a NW curve in the Atlantic riding along the perimeter. (i.e. If the ridge extends through LA, you'll likely get landfall in TX. If the ridge only touches SC or GA, you'll have landfall on the east coast of FL, etc.) Of course landfall also depends on many other factors including how far north the actual nose of the ridge is. If the next few days go as I think, the NC Gulf and Southern FL will be on the conveyor belt for now. It's just something you have to watch.

L8R,

Steve
climo (#12)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 01:44AM 26-Jul-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNXR*)

i was reading on the climatology on years with conditions like this (enso neutral, after enso negative). the east coast trough is supposed to be a common feature for august in years like this, but not in september. if you have faith in averages (which havent held up lately), september should be the month of tension. it's really just timing. in any given season there's always time when the drawbridge is down (eg. the atlantic ridge is solid and the east coast trough is absent), but for the past few years the nasty cape verdes have consistently skipped around the windows of vulnerability. or hit wilmington. the statistic dr. gray keeps touting.. on average a certain percentage of major hurricanes will hit the u.s., since 1995 we should have been hit by 7 or 8. opal, fran, and bret are the three we've had. how long do we keep rolling sevens?
can it happen? (#13)
Posted by: Shawn Location: houston,tx
Posted On 09:17AM 26-Jul-2001 with id (RPWNRQXNRSVNWS*)

i know everyone has been talking about the far atlantic being the place to watch now,but does anyone believe that the wave in the east gulf right now can develop?it may be going too fast right now.i heard someone talk about the second wave right behind it catching up to it and enhancing the possibility of development.could this happen also?
Probably not... (#14)
Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie, LA
Posted On 11:31AM 26-Jul-2001 with id (RPXNRTXNRSQNUX*)

I think the waves will not turn into anything but tropical rain showers. But if you're anxious for some real action, click on Joe Bastardi's tropical weather update today and watch it on Windows Media. He's brought up a teleconnection between what is going on in the western Pacific today and what is likely to happen in the western Atlantic by next weekend. You have a trough that splits the two ridges and forces a tropical low north. The tropical low behind the original low that went north then goes further west as the trough lifts out. In my mind, he's throwing a major yellow flag up for eastern Florida, Georgia and possibly South Carolina for next weekend. It could get very interesting. Be sure you guys have your batteries, non perishables and (of course) cold beer ready. Cheers.

Steve
System Next Week? (#15)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, FL
Posted On 11:40AM 26-Jul-2001 with id (VTNRTTNQNTP*)

I read the forecast discussion out of Melbourne and there saying how the AVN tries to develope the wave early or mid next week, I assume somewhere off the east coast of Florida. We shall see...
models (#16)
Posted by: jimmy
Posted On 11:46AM 26-Jul-2001 with id (QVTNQQQNYSNVU*)

Which model graphics should I use to look for posible development? Sea surface pressure, Vorticity, potential vorticity
East Atlantic (#17)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 12:03PM 26-Jul-2001 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

Since the wave that is located at 26W is waning, the Impulse coming off of Africa now should be the kicker to get development going. The atmosphere there seems to be plenty moist, so we'll see what happens. I didn't read the Melbourne statement from NWS this morning, but the MRF did show a surface low (albeit weak) off of central Florida at day 6. Not sure where this is coming from or if it's spurious. But must be something moving on the periphery of the ridge, probably of Atlantic origin. THere is an interesting area of convection entering the Eastern Caribbean right now, but we've seen them come and go. Conditions continue to set up for tropical development to set in. Anyone in Florida notice last night the heat and humidity last night, even at 11pm? It's summer for sure. Cheers!!
how many? (#18)
Posted by: Shawn Location: houston,tx
Posted On 12:25PM 26-Jul-2001 with id (RPWNRQXNRSVNWS*)

does anybody know exactly how many little systems there are in the caribbean and gulf trying to battle it out?there seems to be quite a few with none of them taking charge.maybe if they got together something would happen.if it seems like i'm a little anxious,i am.the further into the season we go,the less likely of something making all the way to us in houston.i went through hurricane alicia,but that was years ago.i wouldn't mind a cat.1 storm to come here just to feel the excitement again.however, i don't want anything stronger than that.i love the excitement hurricanes bring but i don't want to see alot of damage and loss of life.i'm sure some of you can understand that.we'll see what happens.
next wave (#19)
Posted by: alan (http://%00) Location: Orlando
Posted On 12:42PM 26-Jul-2001 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)

one thing about the wave coming off the African coast. We've been saying all season the waves have been coming off too far south to develop, i.e. they get sucked into the ITCZ. This wave seems to be coming off further north about even with the Cape Verde Islands.
Any other thoughts?
Africa wave (#20)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, FL
Posted On 01:13PM 26-Jul-2001 with id (RQVNSNQXRNXS*)

Thats why I feal like this is an area to watch over the next serveral days or even the next 2 or so months as this may be the start for the atlantic season. The one that came off africa and fell apart is not the one to watch, I think the one set to come off will have to watched.
circulation? (#21)
Posted by: Shawn Location: houston,tx
Posted On 01:54PM 26-Jul-2001 with id (RPWNRQXNRQWNRQW*)

does anyone see some sort of circulation trying to form in the east gulf from one of those waves?it's not very clear but i think there is.
Help with a work project (#22)
Posted by: alan (http://%00) Location: Orlando
Posted On 03:43PM 26-Jul-2001 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)

For those of you who don't know, I am a reporter for an Orlando newspaper. We're putting out a publication that deals with what businesses need to do before, during and after the storm. I have to write the thing.
What I would like is if you guys have any thoughts on some topics I could write about in this piece. One thing I am looking for in particular is a place that shows inland windmodels, specifically dealing with Orlando. Also, where I would find what happens to a skyscraper in various wind speeds.
Thanks for your help.
Alan
Southeast of Bermuda (#23)
Posted by: Randy Location: Charleston, SC
Posted On 04:50PM 26-Jul-2001 with id (TNTWNQRPNQYS*)

Is something going on southeast of Bermuda, 30/62? IR seems to show something.

This is my first post on your site; however, I have been a faithful reader for three years and have taken many precautions based upon all of your surveys. Keep it up!!

As far as items for "what businesses should do, before, during, and after storms". Stock more batteries and flashlights!!
new wave (#24)
Posted by: Keith Location: orlando
Posted On 05:35PM 26-Jul-2001 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNQYW*)

I am still waiting for the new wave to completely emerge off of Africa. That looks to be a player. Even though the NHC has started to watch the first wave. Also, Alan in regards to your story. Just take a walk around Citywalk at Universal Studios. The construction and the fact that much of the Landscaping is still only a year or two old makes me wonder what some of the theme parks would look like after a major storm. Just food for thought.

Keith
it ain't over!! (#25)
Posted by: Shawn Location: houston,tx
Posted On 05:53PM 26-Jul-2001 with id (RPWNRQXNRQWNRQW*)

don't give up on the gulf just yet.
gulf (#26)
Posted by: Nick
Posted On 06:58PM 26-Jul-2001 with id (VTNQRNQPSNRR*)

wind in upper levels will not allow anything in the gulf. we also need more convection & persistence.
wave emerging from Africa (#27)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 07:08PM 26-Jul-2001 with id (VSNRSRNQPXNQVW*)

Does anyone think it has a chance of developement. I don't know about whether conditions are condusive. Please post your opinions.
Wave repositioning (#28)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 08:53PM 26-Jul-2001 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNQUS*)

Please refer to TWD from 8:05 pm. The earlier model runs initialized a system to be in the Bahamas on Weds as an area of intensifying low pressure heading west. TPC initially called it probably spurious and couldn't figure out the origination point that the model was keying in on. Well, the latest TWD revealed where. A strong wave was repositioned at 18N/36W, and is heading westward. Strong wind surge and African dust behind it, but an impressive wave. The NHC is Monitoring this area closely for development. Again check the Tropical Weather Discussion. This may pop up quick. Cheers!!
I'm a bit confused (#29)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 09:33PM 26-Jul-2001 with id (VSNRSRNYXNQWY*)

18n, 36w There doesn't look to be much there. Please correct me if I'm wrong. thanks. Now the wave coming off Africa, is something going on there?
18/36 Wave (#30)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 10:44PM 26-Jul-2001 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNUT*)

There is no deep convection there currently (the wave is now crossing 40W) but there is a broad circulation, and when this wave approaches 60W this wave is expected to gather convection and deepen. It is a strong wave and has potential. If you look south of the longitudinal line you can see the convection it is firing all the way down to the ITCZ (about 9N). I'm just saying to watch it over the next few days, and that it what the NHC is doing. That is why on the tropical weather outlook they are saying there are no signs of development and environmental conditions are not favorable AT THIS TIME. This wave will be in a favorable area in a couple of days. Cheers!!
i was wrong again (#31)
Posted by: Shawn Location: houston,tx
Posted On 11:14PM 26-Jul-2001 with id (RPWNRQXNRSPNST*)

i showed how much of a beginner i was when i said don't give up on the gulf.i will watch the far east atlantic like ya'll are and wait to see what happens.
Alan's ? (#32)
Posted by: troy Location: titusvile
Posted On 01:17AM 27-Jul-2001 with id (QSRNQWPNXWNRQV*)

Alans question on wind field had me scrathin my head 'til I thought of the sight. Crown Weather out of Maine of all places had a great windfield as well as flood from strom surge chart way back during that Floyd incident. From what I remeber the chart was storm specific in that it changed and updated as the storms position and future track changed.

I am not for certain of the URL to the siht but will check some old bookmarks.

Or maybe Mike C remembers the sight.

troy
found it (#33)
Posted by: troy Location: titusvile
Posted On 01:21AM 27-Jul-2001 with id (QSRNQWPNXWNRQV*)

Alan, try this. The same info is probably not there but the webmaster may have it in his files somewhere if ya email him. good luck

http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html
yakyak (#34)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 02:46AM 27-Jul-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNYY*)

i'll keep it short tonight. watch the east coast into the weekend, watch the cape verde genesis zone into next week. the east atlantic looks pretty likely, waves are sharp and lined up to keep coming, itcz is working north. lots of models are twitching, starting to track waves and odd lows.
www.crownweather.com/tropical.html (#35)
Posted by: PEANUTS Location: Hollywood, FL
Posted On 06:54AM 27-Jul-2001 with id (VSNVQNRSPNQRR*)

Just for everyones info I e-mailed the web-master about this site yesterday because I had it in my favorites and this is the response. Has been dicontinued due to time constraints and they will not be issuing city wind speeds this year and are sorry for any inconveniences.
Inland Wind Models (#36)
Posted by: Tony P. (http://€) Location: Panama City
Posted On 08:30AM 27-Jul-2001 with id (RPYNRQTNTVNQRS*)

Info and graphics for projected winds can be found at the Hurricane Centers web site under "Inland Wind Models" Here's the direct link: www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutmeow.html. For current storms www.hurricanealley.net/natl.htm had good graphics and projected wind estimates for many cities that was in detail for each hour. Also current invest areas and tropical model forecast graphics are valuable. For Florida, the state emergency operation center has good graphics for many topics when a storm threatens, www.dca.state.fl.us/eoc. Same with www.floridadisaster.org and www.eoconline.org. Also, it might be helpful to contact the State EOC and/or local emergency management officials for more info.I hope I have provided some helpful info on this subject.
thanks (#37)
Posted by: alan (http://%00) Location: Orlando
Posted On 09:18AM 27-Jul-2001 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)

Just wanted to say thanks. I knew you guys would be a goldmine of information for this.
models?? (#38)
Posted by: Nick
Posted On 09:28AM 27-Jul-2001 with id (QURNQVSNQYTNQWX*)

can someone tell me where i can find a quick and easy site to look at the model runs. thanks
Model Runs (#39)
Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie, LA
Posted On 11:38AM 27-Jul-2001 with id (RPXNRTXNRSQNUX*)

atwc.org (click on "wx forecast models)

or

http://cirrus.sprl.umich.edu/wxnet/model/model.html

That's an awesome link for models.

Steve
Nick (#40)
Posted by: Tony P. (http://€) Location: Panama City
Posted On 11:52AM 27-Jul-2001 with id (RPYNRQTNTVNQRS*)

Steve just sent you an excellent link, also if you check at the very bottom of the CFHC message board subjects you'll see some "forecast models" These are also excellent sites, plus CFHC has more sites on their storm links page. Any questions, let me know and I'll try to help further.
thanks (#41)
Posted by: Nick
Posted On 12:23PM 27-Jul-2001 with id (VTNQRNQPVNTW*)

thank you tony and steve
Nick, (#42)
Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie, LA
Posted On 12:44PM 27-Jul-2001 with id (RPXNRTXNRSQNUX*)

Also, on Atlantic Tropical Weather Center (atwc.org), if you click on their "Forecast Models" page, there is a link to a site called "Wonderful Models Page" which is pretty 'down wit it.' Also, check out this

one:http://www.essc.psu.edu/~rhart/tcgengifs/

That link is from Penn State. I don't think the annimation works, and the models don't carry detail, but they give you a good representation of the various representations. Sometimes I use that link for Sea Level Pressure just to get a better "raw" idea of what the models are indicating.

L8R,

Steve
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