CFHC Talkback For News Story #60:
Newest Talkback: 04:44 PM 07-27 EDT

Nothing Imminent
01:03 PM EDT - 25 July 2001

We're still on track for a no-named-storm July, but with a few complications. Namly a system Southwest of Cuba... 

(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
           [------*---------------]
With not much of a chance to develop due to surrounding conditions at the moment. Still we'll need to watch it just because of the area it's in.

In the Gulf is the system approaching Lousiana, which is just gonna run out of room. In the atlantic we have a pretty large wave. It's nearing the borderline time to watch for Cape Verde storms, so we'll give it a little shot. Persistence is what to look for. 

(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
           [----*-----------------]

Lots of good commentary on the Gulf system in the last article, and more comments are welcome. As usual please be cordial.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Defiant Visible Infrared More...
Other commentary at: Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center - Accuweather's Joe Bastardi - SCOTTSVB's Hurricane Update Center - Jim Williams' Hurricane City - Gary Gray's Millennium Weather - Even More on our Links Page

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

Show All Comments | Show Previous 39 Comments
Displaying Talkbacks #22 - #42 (of 42 total)
Help with a work project (#22)
Posted by: alan (http://%00) Location: Orlando
Posted On 03:43PM 26-Jul-2001 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)

For those of you who don't know, I am a reporter for an Orlando newspaper. We're putting out a publication that deals with what businesses need to do before, during and after the storm. I have to write the thing.
What I would like is if you guys have any thoughts on some topics I could write about in this piece. One thing I am looking for in particular is a place that shows inland windmodels, specifically dealing with Orlando. Also, where I would find what happens to a skyscraper in various wind speeds.
Thanks for your help.
Alan
Southeast of Bermuda (#23)
Posted by: Randy Location: Charleston, SC
Posted On 04:50PM 26-Jul-2001 with id (TNTWNQRPNQYS*)

Is something going on southeast of Bermuda, 30/62? IR seems to show something.

This is my first post on your site; however, I have been a faithful reader for three years and have taken many precautions based upon all of your surveys. Keep it up!!

As far as items for "what businesses should do, before, during, and after storms". Stock more batteries and flashlights!!
new wave (#24)
Posted by: Keith Location: orlando
Posted On 05:35PM 26-Jul-2001 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNQYW*)

I am still waiting for the new wave to completely emerge off of Africa. That looks to be a player. Even though the NHC has started to watch the first wave. Also, Alan in regards to your story. Just take a walk around Citywalk at Universal Studios. The construction and the fact that much of the Landscaping is still only a year or two old makes me wonder what some of the theme parks would look like after a major storm. Just food for thought.

Keith
it ain't over!! (#25)
Posted by: Shawn Location: houston,tx
Posted On 05:53PM 26-Jul-2001 with id (RPWNRQXNRQWNRQW*)

don't give up on the gulf just yet.
gulf (#26)
Posted by: Nick
Posted On 06:58PM 26-Jul-2001 with id (VTNQRNQPSNRR*)

wind in upper levels will not allow anything in the gulf. we also need more convection & persistence.
wave emerging from Africa (#27)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 07:08PM 26-Jul-2001 with id (VSNRSRNQPXNQVW*)

Does anyone think it has a chance of developement. I don't know about whether conditions are condusive. Please post your opinions.
Wave repositioning (#28)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 08:53PM 26-Jul-2001 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNQUS*)

Please refer to TWD from 8:05 pm. The earlier model runs initialized a system to be in the Bahamas on Weds as an area of intensifying low pressure heading west. TPC initially called it probably spurious and couldn't figure out the origination point that the model was keying in on. Well, the latest TWD revealed where. A strong wave was repositioned at 18N/36W, and is heading westward. Strong wind surge and African dust behind it, but an impressive wave. The NHC is Monitoring this area closely for development. Again check the Tropical Weather Discussion. This may pop up quick. Cheers!!
I'm a bit confused (#29)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 09:33PM 26-Jul-2001 with id (VSNRSRNYXNQWY*)

18n, 36w There doesn't look to be much there. Please correct me if I'm wrong. thanks. Now the wave coming off Africa, is something going on there?
18/36 Wave (#30)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 10:44PM 26-Jul-2001 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNUT*)

There is no deep convection there currently (the wave is now crossing 40W) but there is a broad circulation, and when this wave approaches 60W this wave is expected to gather convection and deepen. It is a strong wave and has potential. If you look south of the longitudinal line you can see the convection it is firing all the way down to the ITCZ (about 9N). I'm just saying to watch it over the next few days, and that it what the NHC is doing. That is why on the tropical weather outlook they are saying there are no signs of development and environmental conditions are not favorable AT THIS TIME. This wave will be in a favorable area in a couple of days. Cheers!!
i was wrong again (#31)
Posted by: Shawn Location: houston,tx
Posted On 11:14PM 26-Jul-2001 with id (RPWNRQXNRSPNST*)

i showed how much of a beginner i was when i said don't give up on the gulf.i will watch the far east atlantic like ya'll are and wait to see what happens.
Alan's ? (#32)
Posted by: troy Location: titusvile
Posted On 01:17AM 27-Jul-2001 with id (QSRNQWPNXWNRQV*)

Alans question on wind field had me scrathin my head 'til I thought of the sight. Crown Weather out of Maine of all places had a great windfield as well as flood from strom surge chart way back during that Floyd incident. From what I remeber the chart was storm specific in that it changed and updated as the storms position and future track changed.

I am not for certain of the URL to the siht but will check some old bookmarks.

Or maybe Mike C remembers the sight.

troy
found it (#33)
Posted by: troy Location: titusvile
Posted On 01:21AM 27-Jul-2001 with id (QSRNQWPNXWNRQV*)

Alan, try this. The same info is probably not there but the webmaster may have it in his files somewhere if ya email him. good luck

http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html
yakyak (#34)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 02:46AM 27-Jul-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNYY*)

i'll keep it short tonight. watch the east coast into the weekend, watch the cape verde genesis zone into next week. the east atlantic looks pretty likely, waves are sharp and lined up to keep coming, itcz is working north. lots of models are twitching, starting to track waves and odd lows.
www.crownweather.com/tropical.html (#35)
Posted by: PEANUTS Location: Hollywood, FL
Posted On 06:54AM 27-Jul-2001 with id (VSNVQNRSPNQRR*)

Just for everyones info I e-mailed the web-master about this site yesterday because I had it in my favorites and this is the response. Has been dicontinued due to time constraints and they will not be issuing city wind speeds this year and are sorry for any inconveniences.
Inland Wind Models (#36)
Posted by: Tony P. (http://€) Location: Panama City
Posted On 08:30AM 27-Jul-2001 with id (RPYNRQTNTVNQRS*)

Info and graphics for projected winds can be found at the Hurricane Centers web site under "Inland Wind Models" Here's the direct link: www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutmeow.html. For current storms www.hurricanealley.net/natl.htm had good graphics and projected wind estimates for many cities that was in detail for each hour. Also current invest areas and tropical model forecast graphics are valuable. For Florida, the state emergency operation center has good graphics for many topics when a storm threatens, www.dca.state.fl.us/eoc. Same with www.floridadisaster.org and www.eoconline.org. Also, it might be helpful to contact the State EOC and/or local emergency management officials for more info.I hope I have provided some helpful info on this subject.
thanks (#37)
Posted by: alan (http://%00) Location: Orlando
Posted On 09:18AM 27-Jul-2001 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)

Just wanted to say thanks. I knew you guys would be a goldmine of information for this.
models?? (#38)
Posted by: Nick
Posted On 09:28AM 27-Jul-2001 with id (QURNQVSNQYTNQWX*)

can someone tell me where i can find a quick and easy site to look at the model runs. thanks
Model Runs (#39)
Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie, LA
Posted On 11:38AM 27-Jul-2001 with id (RPXNRTXNRSQNUX*)

atwc.org (click on "wx forecast models)

or

http://cirrus.sprl.umich.edu/wxnet/model/model.html

That's an awesome link for models.

Steve
Nick (#40)
Posted by: Tony P. (http://€) Location: Panama City
Posted On 11:52AM 27-Jul-2001 with id (RPYNRQTNTVNQRS*)

Steve just sent you an excellent link, also if you check at the very bottom of the CFHC message board subjects you'll see some "forecast models" These are also excellent sites, plus CFHC has more sites on their storm links page. Any questions, let me know and I'll try to help further.
thanks (#41)
Posted by: Nick
Posted On 12:23PM 27-Jul-2001 with id (VTNQRNQPVNTW*)

thank you tony and steve
Nick, (#42)
Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie, LA
Posted On 12:44PM 27-Jul-2001 with id (RPXNRTXNRSQNUX*)

Also, on Atlantic Tropical Weather Center (atwc.org), if you click on their "Forecast Models" page, there is a link to a site called "Wonderful Models Page" which is pretty 'down wit it.' Also, check out this

one:http://www.essc.psu.edu/~rhart/tcgengifs/

That link is from Penn State. I don't think the annimation works, and the models don't carry detail, but they give you a good representation of the various representations. Sometimes I use that link for Sea Level Pressure just to get a better "raw" idea of what the models are indicating.

L8R,

Steve
Show All Comments | Show Previous 39 Comments

Return to Central Florida Hurricane Center Main Page