Debby and More
11:02 PM EDT - 20 August 2000
John and I both will try to be in our live chat area around 8PM EST (1Z) tomorrow for at least an hour. This may be the same time that Jim Williams over at Hurricane City will do an audio show. (Usually he waits for landfalls so it may not be tomorrow) If it is, we will be listening as well.
Debby looks interesting, and I'm thinking the center is just a bit southwest of the central dense overcast area. Seems like the ridge ridge will last for two days or so, therefore it should continue toward the west northwest until the end of the NHC's forecast time period. I think it'll be around 80 knots in 72 hours or so.
With this thinking the likely activity puts it just skirting to the north of the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, St. Martin, St. Thomas etc and maybe the Northeast coast of Puerto Rico. With tropical storm force winds, caution being that even a slight shift to the left could cause hurricane conditions. The strength of Debby also depends on how close it gets to the Islands. (If it stays away it should get stronger)
The timing is critical later on, for any eventual US threat. It's possible that anywhere from the Florida Keys to Cape Hatteras could see something from this storm (with slightly more risk to Florida and the Bahamas). I know this is incredibly vague, but it's the best I can speculate right now. There still is the question that needs to be asked, which is will it be a good scare (Ala Floyd for Florida last year) or will it actually make landfall? It depends on when the next trough approaches the east coast. It is just too early to tell. For what it's worth, current trends (highly subject to change) put the storm near South Florida sometime on Friday. The only sure bet is that it will cause headaches for the folks in the National Hurricane Center (and us too).
Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.StormCarib.com has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean.
Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)