CFHC Talkback For News Story #64:
Newest Talkback: 05:06 PM 08-21 EDT

Debby and More
11:02 PM EDT - 20 August 2000

Chat Update:

John and I both will try to be in our
live chat area around 8PM EST (1Z) tomorrow for at least an hour. This may be the same time that Jim Williams over at Hurricane City will do an audio show. (Usually he waits for landfalls so it may not be tomorrow) If it is, we will be listening as well.

Debby Update:

Debby looks interesting, and I'm thinking the center is just a bit southwest of the central dense overcast area. Seems like the ridge ridge will last for two days or so, therefore it should continue toward the west northwest until the end of the NHC's forecast time period. I think it'll be around 80 knots in 72 hours or so.

With this thinking the likely activity puts it just skirting to the north of the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, St. Martin, St. Thomas etc and maybe the Northeast coast of Puerto Rico. With tropical storm force winds, caution being that even a slight shift to the left could cause hurricane conditions. The strength of Debby also depends on how close it gets to the Islands. (If it stays away it should get stronger)

The timing is critical later on, for any eventual US threat. It's possible that anywhere from the Florida Keys to Cape Hatteras could see something from this storm (with slightly more risk to Florida and the Bahamas). I know this is incredibly vague, but it's the best I can speculate right now. There still is the question that needs to be asked, which is will it be a good scare (Ala Floyd for Florida last year) or will it actually make landfall? It depends on when the next trough approaches the east coast. It is just too early to tell. For what it's worth, current trends (highly subject to change) put the storm near South Florida sometime on Friday. The only sure bet is that it will cause headaches for the folks in the National Hurricane Center (and us too).

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline. has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean. Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens. Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.
Nice Satellite Image of Atlantic (IR Colorized)

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #5 (of 5 total)

Debby (#1)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 05:37AM 21-Aug-2000 with id (QRNWWNQXPNUR*)

Hello All,
Well Debby continues to look a bit ragged with what looks like a southwesterly shear aloft. Winds in the upper levels are near 10 knots so some shear is possible. Over the last 12 hours Debby has shown a definit west track but the exact position is still very shaky right now and when the 8am or 11am advisory comes out a repositioning may occur. Some satellites show a possible southwest track to just under 15 north. Because of the lack of confidence in its position Debby remains a 50mph T.S. at 5am. Debby looks like it has not become better organized over night BUT!!! until recon flight enters the storm over the next few hours and finds the actual center I am holding back any confidence on the NHC reports. The official word from the NHC reflects its uncertainity in its present outlook.

So heres my best GUESS... Debby has shifted a bit further to the west over night which makes the northern islands more of a threat as well as Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic as well. Strengthening has not taken place over night but this may change before it gets close to the islands tonight and tommorow. (IF ITS CENTER IS REPOSITIONED ALL BETS ABOVE ARE OFF) I do believe even the southeastern Bahamas need to start preparing for possible Hurricane conditions Wednesday and Thursday. Beyond this I am very unsure on what may happen to Debby. There are to many varibles including if Debby runs over land from the islands to Dominican Republic and weakens, weakening the mid level ridge to its north allowing more of a nw track. I could give atleast 3-4 more problems in forcasting Debby but for now lets concentrate on the Carribean islands to Puerto Rico. Its time to get prepared...

The east coast trough??? (#2)
Posted by: Rob
Posted On 08:31AM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQSRNQTTNRUT*)

Would a knowledgeable person please explain the mechanism by which a trough affects the track of a tropical cyclone? Are these influential troughs mid-level? The trough question seems to be the coming issue in regards to Debby's eventual path and particularly her effect on Florida.
Thanks, Rob

im not robillalways post as robert ,no confusions (#3)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 08:39AM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RPWNSVNRQRNYP*)

trough are upper level and thats all i know once a hurricane becomes strong its all upper level that steers them AKA high pressure low pressure trough fronts

i confused my self (#4)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 08:40AM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RPWNSVNRQRNYP*)

Rob is a diffrent person to me

Debby (#5)
Posted by: Edward
Posted On 05:06PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNUV*)

Ever since Debby was merely a large tropical wave off Africa I've thought Debby might be big trouble for a lot people. I still feel that way.

In its still evolving stages it reminds me of some infamous storms of the past. Donna, Carla, Gilbert, David and Georges come to mind. Debby may very well end up being very similiar in size, strength and course.

Reading the NHC discussions makes me believe that sometime soon Debbie will show explosive development and eventually be at least a very large and dangerous category 3 storm.

I believe the only scenario which might prevent this is if the storm gets hung in the mountains of Hispanola or takes a long land track over Cuba. If not I would say watch out...Northeast Gulf states, all of Florida, the Carolinas, the mid-atlantic and New England. As the cliche goes..."only time will tell".

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