CFHC Talkback For News Story #66:
Newest Talkback: 11:10 AM 08-22 EDT

Warnings For Near-Hurricane Debby
10:45 AM EDT - 21 August 2000

11PM Update:

Debby remains a Tropical Storm for the 11PM advisory, but with pressures dropping and an eye trying to form, it should be a hurricane by 5AM (if not sooner). Forecast track beyond that remains mostly the same.

5PM Update:

Hurricane Warnings are now up for Puerto Rico. Thinking on the system remains relatively unchanged from earlier.

Original Update:

Hurricane Warnings are up for the islands between from the south Guadeloupe up and to the north and west to the Us Virgin Islands. Hurricane Watches remain for Puerto Rico. Tropical Storm Warnings are up for Barbados.

Debby's windspeed is now at 60 KT (70MPH) which is just under hurricane strength. And is stregthening...

Not much else to add from the previous article, except to note that the official track now takes it over Hispaniola (still subject to change)

John and I both plan to be on our Live Chat at 8PM Eastern (01:00 GMT) for at least one hour tonight. Even though we aren't there always, feel free to use it anytime. At this same time Jim Williams will be doing a live audio broadcast over at Hurricane City we will be listening as well.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

StormCarib.com has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean.
Ouragans.com Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens.
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.

Live Radio (RealAudio) from Antigua
Nice Satellite Image of Atlantic (IR Colorized)

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

Show All Comments | Show Next 15 Comments
Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #15 (of 57 total)
Movement (#1)
Posted by: Brian Location: Hollywood, Florida
Posted On 10:53AM 21-Aug-2000 with id (QSWNURNRPPNRTY*)

system appears to be moving just north of due west. Pictures from space display a rapidly intesifying system. Perhaps Debby is building a stronger ridge to the north than anticipated by the TPC/NHC? Sending her more westward, directly into the Dominican, rather than just north of it?
a note about Debbie (#2)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 11:24AM 21-Aug-2000 with id (VSNSYNSWNV*)

Just to let everyone know,,Debbie has not strengthend in the last 24hrs...in wind speed but not pressure,,,the pressure is up 7mb in the last 6 hrs which is a remakable rise in the time frame,,,if she loses her convection,she could quickly be down to a 40mph in less 12 hrs after HER LOSS IN CONVECTION. NOTE THE 70MPHwind speed is due to the strong easterly on the north side inhanced by the strong low level easterly flow around the ridge ,which is making her move fast near 22mph. as she moves away from the ridge late tonight she culd become better orgainzed and be upgraded,,but with this prssure of 1008,don't be surprised at 5pm for the NHC to loweer the intensity to 60. JUST A NOTE HERE.......
Debby, a coment and a question (#3)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 12:00PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Comment: the storm did NOT rise 6 mb in 24hrs..the sat estimates were off. Still, this is a high pressure for a 60Kt storm (ala Andrew?)

question-

what is that odd structure that has been preceding Debby in the sat pics, almost looks like it is trying to develop a circulation. Upper low, or some sort of anomaly? I've seen no discussions of any sort about this (officially).

Any thoughts?

IHS,

BIll
Debby (#4)
Posted by: Nick
Posted On 12:01PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (QUVNVXNQQNWT*)

This is going to be an interesting storm. Debby is going to make her change in the next 24 hours and it will answer all of the questions. This is an informative web - site. Thanks for all your hard work.
Wind Speed/Pressure Rise (#5)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 12:02PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNTR*)

I understand your point Scott, but let me point this out: in the N quadrant recon found winds at 88knts...with the storm heading west, the islands will feel these winds whether the pressure is low or high...and they are uneasy about it...as they well should be.
Comments on Pressure (#6)
Posted by: Ed Dunham Location: Melbourne, FL
Posted On 12:05PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNQVX*)

Years ago in a conversation with a well respected Director of NHC, he stated that SLP was one of the most difficult parameters to determine in a developing tropical cyclone - its still true today. Until you had an eye with an aircraft in it and a reliable dropsonde, the determination of accurate pressure was about as reliable as a crap shoot. In the past 12 hours Debby's pressure may have been hanging around 1000mb, but who knows. In those same 12 hours, Debby has been racing to the west northwest - at speeds which have been as high as 26mph. This tells me that the ridge is certainly building in quite nicely, especially at the lower levels. It also suggests that the low level center has actually been outrunning its own convection, i.e., the lower level winds at the base of the building high pressure to its north are quite a bit stronger than the upper level winds, thus Debby is literally creating its own shear. As the high settles in and builds upward, the upper level easterly flow will catch up and the gradient should also relax. This will eventually allow the convection to rebuild around the center - but probably not before 5pm. This could indeed mean a bit of a break for the northern islands, but probably not much of a break. Looking ahead, its not too early for ALL of Florida to start paying serious attention to this storm. After Andros Island, two scenarios are possible: 1) she rides up the east coast of the peninsula (or just inland of it) as a Cat II hurricane similar to David (hopefully not stronger), or 2) the building ridge travels with the cyclone and pushes it across the peninsula and into the Gulf. I tend to favor the former, but its still too early to make that call. Friday night into Saturday morning is beginning to look a little rough!
Cheers,
ED
In the gulf (#7)
Posted by: alan Location: orlando
Posted On 12:14PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)

While there has been a lot of speculation about the gulf, I have seen no one talk about what Debby would possibly do if she was in the gulf.
I know it depends on how deep she goes past Florida, but if Debby is in the Gulf, could we see a track like Donna, which hit Florida's west side and crossed the state going NE.
The reason I ask, is because as time goes on, the Gulf scenerio is looking more and more probable, of course, it's a wide open ocean right now past 72 hours.
Any thoughts on the probabilities once in the gulf.
HURRICANE DEBBY? (#8)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 12:17PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (QRNWWNQWWNYY*)

Hello All,
Well Debby has shown some muscle but its just a bit torn at the tendons. Debby continues to move at a fast rate(22mph westward) and this motion will continue for the next 24 hours. This puts the leeward islands in direct threat of Hurricane force winds as well as Puerto Rico. The forward speed should start too slow after the next 24 hours and when this happens watch out. I see Debby after it enters the Carribean to develope rapidly into a CAT#2 storm and head towards the Dominican Republic and Cuba. After there its heading towards the BAHAMAS and then I believe right now Florida most likely southern Florida. The stronger Debby gets the better chance she will get into the Gulf of Mexico but will have to wait and see how strong. Everyone from Florida to the leeward islands need to be prepared or start preparing for a possible hurricane threat.... I am sticking my head out alot here but will see

Hurricane Warnings.... (#9)
Posted by: Richard Byett (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 12:55PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNSSNQPR*)

Just a brief note to say that i have updated my site to include my latest Hurricane Warnings. They are identical to the official NHC except i have placed PR under a warning rather than watch.
Note (#10)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 01:11PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYUNQYW*)

I don't think many official sources expected Debby to make a westward turn, at least not so soon. This storm just got a lot uglier.
Debby Track (#11)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 01:20PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (QYYNRRWNQSQNSW*)

the origanal forcast track that the nhc puts out
the first advisory what ever side a storm goes on thats the side it stays on
JJ (#12)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 01:27PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNQWY*)

Well, for now it is on a due west course, but I don't they have that much confidence in it staying that way for long. My thoughts on Debby are the following: the faster Debby goes, the uglier the situation gets for us in Florida and here's my reasoning on this: IF it keeps up this speed for the next 24 hours, it would be very close to PR. Then, and if, the ridge breaks down, allowing Debby to make a more w/nw turn, it could intensify rapidly not giving us here in Florida much time to prepare (which we should have been doing all along). Even TWC (and keep in mind that they are NOT allowed to just spit out opinions based on their own observations) is saying that it probably poses more of a threat to the SE coast, most likely Florida, by Fri/Sat. This is based on models and official thinking. They have been saying this almost all morning. Another point: latest Recon flight reported 79knt winds in the N Quadrant and 1004mb low 40nm from flight center and also showed an extrapolated pressure of 1006. So, basically, it IS a strong storm. If anyone can add or subtract from this reasoning, please feel free to do so!!! I need all the help I can get!!!!
After Georges (#13)
Posted by: Pensacolian
Posted On 01:34PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNUY*)

I'm watching it close on the gulf coast!
Debby does Dallas (#14)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 01:42PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (QYYNRRWNRPNQVQ*)

just kidding around thought that was funny
good show ed (#15)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 02:42PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

Ed D., your comments earlier were on the mark. Pressures are hard to figure in a developing cyclone. Florida needs to watch this storm carefully, since yes I agree she was outrunning her convection, but when this eases of she will stack up. Hopefully she doesn't strengthen too much when she enters the SE bahamas..but I get this bad feeling about her. Florida hasn't seen a storm with her character in quite a while. I have a feeling she'll put David to shame. But still, it's too early to tell exactly where she'll go, but if she ends up north of the DR look out Florida, since it seems a trough is beginning to take shape in the west. Even if it is fairly weak, it could pull her far enough north to grind up the coast, or just inland as you said. Florida residents should start checking their supplies tonight..If she goes in the gulf so be it Then others will have to begin their preparations. I do not like the way things are looking at the moment for Florida thoough,quite frankly. cheers!!!
Debby (movement more Northernly) (#16)
Posted by: David Location: Brevard/PSJ
Posted On 02:50PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RPYNQQTNRRPNRTW*)

Hello all,

I am not a pro at this, but just incase the Cape's weather machine fails, I like to watch approaching storms carefully. I have been watching this loop: http://sgihss3f.wwb.noaa.gov/data4/images/TROPICAL/atl/catl-wv-loop.html
It is a look at the water vapor, and how it is interacting. Looking at the trough of dry air and how the moisture seems to be moving it looks like Debby is going to be moving more North/West North than West. My guess is that it is not going to run into the Central East Coast of Florida. My guess is the Carolina's. Will see....
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