CFHC Talkback For News Story #66:
Newest Talkback: 07:10 AM 08-22 EDT

Warnings For Near-Hurricane Debby
10:45 AM EDT - 21 August 2000

11PM Update:

Debby remains a Tropical Storm for the 11PM advisory, but with pressures dropping and an eye trying to form, it should be a hurricane by 5AM (if not sooner). Forecast track beyond that remains mostly the same.

5PM Update:

Hurricane Warnings are now up for Puerto Rico. Thinking on the system remains relatively unchanged from earlier.

Original Update:

Hurricane Warnings are up for the islands between from the south Guadeloupe up and to the north and west to the Us Virgin Islands. Hurricane Watches remain for Puerto Rico. Tropical Storm Warnings are up for Barbados.

Debby's windspeed is now at 60 KT (70MPH) which is just under hurricane strength. And is stregthening...

Not much else to add from the previous article, except to note that the official track now takes it over Hispaniola (still subject to change)

John and I both plan to be on our
Live Chat at 8PM Eastern (01:00 GMT) for at least one hour tonight. Even though we aren't there always, feel free to use it anytime. At this same time Jim Williams will be doing a live audio broadcast over at Hurricane City we will be listening as well.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline. has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean. Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens. Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.

Live Radio (RealAudio) from Antigua
Nice Satellite Image of Atlantic (IR Colorized)

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

- [mac]

Show All Comments

Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #57 (of 57 total)

Movement (#1)
Posted by: Brian Location: Hollywood, Florida
Posted On 10:53AM 21-Aug-2000 with id (QSWNURNRPPNRTY*)

system appears to be moving just north of due west. Pictures from space display a rapidly intesifying system. Perhaps Debby is building a stronger ridge to the north than anticipated by the TPC/NHC? Sending her more westward, directly into the Dominican, rather than just north of it?

a note about Debbie (#2)
Posted by: scottsvb (
Posted On 11:24AM 21-Aug-2000 with id (VSNSYNSWNV*)

Just to let everyone know,,Debbie has not strengthend in the last wind speed but not pressure,,,the pressure is up 7mb in the last 6 hrs which is a remakable rise in the time frame,,,if she loses her convection,she could quickly be down to a 40mph in less 12 hrs after HER LOSS IN CONVECTION. NOTE THE 70MPHwind speed is due to the strong easterly on the north side inhanced by the strong low level easterly flow around the ridge ,which is making her move fast near 22mph. as she moves away from the ridge late tonight she culd become better orgainzed and be upgraded,,but with this prssure of 1008,don't be surprised at 5pm for the NHC to loweer the intensity to 60. JUST A NOTE HERE.......

Debby, a coment and a question (#3)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 12:00PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Comment: the storm did NOT rise 6 mb in 24hrs..the sat estimates were off. Still, this is a high pressure for a 60Kt storm (ala Andrew?)


what is that odd structure that has been preceding Debby in the sat pics, almost looks like it is trying to develop a circulation. Upper low, or some sort of anomaly? I've seen no discussions of any sort about this (officially).

Any thoughts?



Debby (#4)
Posted by: Nick
Posted On 12:01PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (QUVNVXNQQNWT*)

This is going to be an interesting storm. Debby is going to make her change in the next 24 hours and it will answer all of the questions. This is an informative web - site. Thanks for all your hard work.

Wind Speed/Pressure Rise (#5)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 12:02PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNTR*)

I understand your point Scott, but let me point this out: in the N quadrant recon found winds at 88knts...with the storm heading west, the islands will feel these winds whether the pressure is low or high...and they are uneasy about they well should be.

Comments on Pressure (#6)
Posted by:
Ed Dunham Location: Melbourne, FL
Posted On 12:05PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNQVX*)

Years ago in a conversation with a well respected Director of NHC, he stated that SLP was one of the most difficult parameters to determine in a developing tropical cyclone - its still true today. Until you had an eye with an aircraft in it and a reliable dropsonde, the determination of accurate pressure was about as reliable as a crap shoot. In the past 12 hours Debby's pressure may have been hanging around 1000mb, but who knows. In those same 12 hours, Debby has been racing to the west northwest - at speeds which have been as high as 26mph. This tells me that the ridge is certainly building in quite nicely, especially at the lower levels. It also suggests that the low level center has actually been outrunning its own convection, i.e., the lower level winds at the base of the building high pressure to its north are quite a bit stronger than the upper level winds, thus Debby is literally creating its own shear. As the high settles in and builds upward, the upper level easterly flow will catch up and the gradient should also relax. This will eventually allow the convection to rebuild around the center - but probably not before 5pm. This could indeed mean a bit of a break for the northern islands, but probably not much of a break. Looking ahead, its not too early for ALL of Florida to start paying serious attention to this storm. After Andros Island, two scenarios are possible: 1) she rides up the east coast of the peninsula (or just inland of it) as a Cat II hurricane similar to David (hopefully not stronger), or 2) the building ridge travels with the cyclone and pushes it across the peninsula and into the Gulf. I tend to favor the former, but its still too early to make that call. Friday night into Saturday morning is beginning to look a little rough!

In the gulf (#7)
Posted by:
alan Location: orlando
Posted On 12:14PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)

While there has been a lot of speculation about the gulf, I have seen no one talk about what Debby would possibly do if she was in the gulf.
I know it depends on how deep she goes past Florida, but if Debby is in the Gulf, could we see a track like Donna, which hit Florida's west side and crossed the state going NE.
The reason I ask, is because as time goes on, the Gulf scenerio is looking more and more probable, of course, it's a wide open ocean right now past 72 hours.
Any thoughts on the probabilities once in the gulf.

Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 12:17PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (QRNWWNQWWNYY*)

Hello All,
Well Debby has shown some muscle but its just a bit torn at the tendons. Debby continues to move at a fast rate(22mph westward) and this motion will continue for the next 24 hours. This puts the leeward islands in direct threat of Hurricane force winds as well as Puerto Rico. The forward speed should start too slow after the next 24 hours and when this happens watch out. I see Debby after it enters the Carribean to develope rapidly into a CAT#2 storm and head towards the Dominican Republic and Cuba. After there its heading towards the BAHAMAS and then I believe right now Florida most likely southern Florida. The stronger Debby gets the better chance she will get into the Gulf of Mexico but will have to wait and see how strong. Everyone from Florida to the leeward islands need to be prepared or start preparing for a possible hurricane threat.... I am sticking my head out alot here but will see

Hurricane Warnings.... (#9)
Posted by:
Richard Byett ( Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 12:55PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNSSNQPR*)

Just a brief note to say that i have updated my site to include my latest Hurricane Warnings. They are identical to the official NHC except i have placed PR under a warning rather than watch.

Note (#10)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 01:11PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYUNQYW*)

I don't think many official sources expected Debby to make a westward turn, at least not so soon. This storm just got a lot uglier.

Debby Track (#11)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 01:20PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (QYYNRRWNQSQNSW*)

the origanal forcast track that the nhc puts out
the first advisory what ever side a storm goes on thats the side it stays on

JJ (#12)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 01:27PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNQWY*)

Well, for now it is on a due west course, but I don't they have that much confidence in it staying that way for long. My thoughts on Debby are the following: the faster Debby goes, the uglier the situation gets for us in Florida and here's my reasoning on this: IF it keeps up this speed for the next 24 hours, it would be very close to PR. Then, and if, the ridge breaks down, allowing Debby to make a more w/nw turn, it could intensify rapidly not giving us here in Florida much time to prepare (which we should have been doing all along). Even TWC (and keep in mind that they are NOT allowed to just spit out opinions based on their own observations) is saying that it probably poses more of a threat to the SE coast, most likely Florida, by Fri/Sat. This is based on models and official thinking. They have been saying this almost all morning. Another point: latest Recon flight reported 79knt winds in the N Quadrant and 1004mb low 40nm from flight center and also showed an extrapolated pressure of 1006. So, basically, it IS a strong storm. If anyone can add or subtract from this reasoning, please feel free to do so!!! I need all the help I can get!!!!

After Georges (#13)
Posted by: Pensacolian
Posted On 01:34PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNUY*)

I'm watching it close on the gulf coast!

Debby does Dallas (#14)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 01:42PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (QYYNRRWNRPNQVQ*)

just kidding around thought that was funny

good show ed (#15)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 02:42PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

Ed D., your comments earlier were on the mark. Pressures are hard to figure in a developing cyclone. Florida needs to watch this storm carefully, since yes I agree she was outrunning her convection, but when this eases of she will stack up. Hopefully she doesn't strengthen too much when she enters the SE bahamas..but I get this bad feeling about her. Florida hasn't seen a storm with her character in quite a while. I have a feeling she'll put David to shame. But still, it's too early to tell exactly where she'll go, but if she ends up north of the DR look out Florida, since it seems a trough is beginning to take shape in the west. Even if it is fairly weak, it could pull her far enough north to grind up the coast, or just inland as you said. Florida residents should start checking their supplies tonight..If she goes in the gulf so be it Then others will have to begin their preparations. I do not like the way things are looking at the moment for Florida thoough,quite frankly. cheers!!!

Debby (movement more Northernly) (#16)
Posted by:
David Location: Brevard/PSJ
Posted On 02:50PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RPYNQQTNRRPNRTW*)

Hello all,

I am not a pro at this, but just incase the Cape's weather machine fails, I like to watch approaching storms carefully. I have been watching this loop:
It is a look at the water vapor, and how it is interacting. Looking at the trough of dry air and how the moisture seems to be moving it looks like Debby is going to be moving more North/West North than West. My guess is that it is not going to run into the Central East Coast of Florida. My guess is the Carolina's. Will see....

Extended Outlook from NWS (#17)
Posted by:
OrlandoDude Location: O-Town
Posted On 02:58PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RPYNRQYNRPYNVX*)


Debby (#18)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg,FL
Posted On 03:42PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (VTNRTTNQNSV*)

This is one that could be a threat to Florida
by Friday and into the Weekend.But it is to early
to stay if its going to effect Florida or not.Will
just have to wait and see.


Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:09PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNSQ*)

Almost every single discussion this afternoon has Debby on our doorstep by Fri/Sat, but they are holding back on going into too much detail because of the proximity of the storm. Words I read were "dicey" "visitor on our doorstep"...etc. Not sounding good. just a heads up. TWC has also been saying this for most of the day.

Debby stacking up? (#20)
Posted by:
Richard Byett ( Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 04:11PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNSRNQSU*)

Well earlier today it was evident that the LLCC was to the southwest of most of the convection on visible imagery. However it seems to me that over the passed few hours the LLCC may be moving back into the area of convection. Does this mean that the Low and midlevel lows are now beginning to stack? If so then the storm could become stronger as convection will be able to concentrate around the centre on all 4 quadrants, rather than primarily to the north and east.
Any way just an observation i have made. What does any one else think?

Models (#21)
Posted by: JoeP Location: O-Town
Posted On 04:17PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (QRNSUNQWNR*)

Can anyone point me to a site that has the BAMM and BAMD models? Thanks

Models (#22)
Posted by: JoeP Location: O-Town
Posted On 04:17PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (QRNSUNQWNR*)

Can anyone point me to a site that has the BAMM and BAMD models? Thanks

Richard Comment (#23)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:22PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNSQ*) I noted to you earlier, I thought this was beginning to happen...we shall see with the next update, I believe.

bill,,colleen and ed (#24)
Posted by: scottsvb (
Posted On 04:28PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (VSNQQNQVUNQSP*)

First off,,great post ed,,everyone should read what he said,,,,for us meteorolgists,,(which i do have a degree in) he nailed it very close to the button.
Bill not to yell back at you like you did me,,but the pressure has come back up some,,,the pressure is around 1003-1005 flucuating the NHC says do to the rapid movement.Satillite from Goes gave an estimate around 1003 earlier,,but the system was better organized at the time,,but as it icreased in fwd speed from 17mph to 22mph,,it began to spread out more from the CDO and the prssure came up just a tad to 1007,,now as of this post back to 1004mb as the ridge is relaxing a tad.The movement should slow down some due to this and a just n of w motion should continue for the next few days,,with some wobbles.
Colleen its always good to hear from you,,,the 88kt winds are 1000 feet up and doesn't translate down to the surface...with a pressure of 1004mb at this post,,it has a wind enviroment at the surface of 45-50mph Note our and the NHC reports the south side of Debby with winds only around 40mph at this time. keep up the good work colleen.
But everyone Debby will become a hurricane soon and florida residents need to keep an eye on this,,,thursday night it should be within 100 miles of the Keys or Miami....some changes in the track will be issues due to the uncertainty of the trough coming down on Friday.

Latest Recon Flight (#25)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:30PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNSQ*)

Doesn't tell me much, but maybe you weather watchers can figure this out:

URNT12 KNHC 211930
A. 21/1707Z
B. 15 DEG 55 MIN N
. 58 DEG 19 MIN W
D. 20 KTS
E. 138 DEG 46 NM
F. 184 DEG 34 KT
G. 137 DEG 64 NM
I. 24 C/ 390 M
J. 24 C/ 450 M
K. 23 C/ NA
N. 134 /01
O. 0.5/1 NM
P. AF963 0207A DEBBY OB 15

Extrapolated pressure at the last one was 1006mb...this time it is that anything significant? Thanks for the help!!!

richard (#26)
Posted by: scottsvb (
Posted On 04:35PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (VSNQQNQVUNQSP*)

The center that you said is becoming better organinzed and will so better tonight..the pressure is down to 1004 from 1007,,the lower the pressure the more thunderstorms,,,this is what is making the system look better organinzed.
good call there richard

To Scott (#27)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:37PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNSQ*)

Scott, except for the kind words, can you explain something to me?
Colleen its always good to hear from you,,,the 88kt winds are 1000 feet up and doesn't translate down to the surface...with a pressure of 1004mb at this post,,it has a wind enviroment at the surface of 45-50mph Note our and the NHC reports the south side of Debby with winds only around 40mph at this time. keep up the good work colleen.

If the winds at the surface are only 45-50mph, then why is the NHC reporting it as a 70mph storm

Chat tonight starting 8pm Eastern (#28)
Posted by:
John C. ( Location: Cocoa, FL
Posted On 05:08PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNSR*)

There is a scheduled chat tonight for all those who want to join in. 8pm EST (01:00 GMT) just click on the "live Chat" link on the left menu bar. Hope to see you all there.

Colleen (#29)
Posted by: scottsvb (
Posted On 05:13PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (VSNQQNQVUNQSP*)

NHC has there own reasons for such,,but the reasoning is that there is projected winds on the north and east side of debbie near 70mph,,so that is the post. The south and sw side has winds near 50mph or so,,,,the NHC or NWS would give the higher speed cause its sustained at some point around the center.

Thanks, Scott (#30)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 05:23PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNRY*)

Thanks for explaining that to me....see ya later on!!!!

ED Comment #6 (#31)
Posted by:
John C. ( Location: Cocoa, FL
Posted On 05:25PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNSR*)

Ed you hit it on the head in your #6 comment on this news story, the 5pm discussion is now saying what you said about the low level circulation out running the convection. Good call!

Getting better organised? (#32)
Posted by:
Richard Byett ( Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 05:38PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNSWNX*)

Well it appears to me that the LLCC and midlevel low may now be starting to stack vertically. Like NHC said, the problem is that the LLCC keeps racing ahead of the midlevel low. However over the passed 2-3 hours the convection seems to be getting better organised around the west and south of the LLCC. If this is the case then there is more chance the system will intensify at a faster rate... i notice nhc take her above hurricane strength (forecast 70knots, a hurricane is 65) within 12 hours. Could be that they think the system will stack up too.
Either way it will be a close call for the islands, especially as she is getting better organised too.
Just thought i would point that observation out, and of course i could be wrong.
By the way if anyone would like me to link to their website, or would like to link to mine just drop me a mail. Thanx, and i will post back again soon :)

Scenario (#33)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 05:40PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYUNRPW*)

If Debby "rides" the Antilles for any length of time, it seems certain that intensification will be limited, if outright weakening doesn't occur.

Richard (#34)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 06:08PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQVV*)

I just saw the latest IR loop on TWC, and I do believe that the center is trying to get back under the CDO...slowly, but surely.

debby's still lopsided (#35)
Posted by: Frank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 06:22PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)

last couple of hours there's been another convective burst at the center. this has been going on all day, but the circulation center has been on the western periphery of the CDO for even longer. it may burst again and again, but until the center becomes more embedded in the CDO i dont think debby will do much to get stronger. i reckon the folks in monserrat and st kitts are a bit less nervous for debby's continued mad rush ahead of the main convective mass. i know it's of marginal importance, but has anybody been watching the little puff (looking for the worse at the moment) that was chris? its still there around 25N70W. when this little feature starts interacting with the trough ahead, it might stir back up. i give it a snowball's chance in hell, anyway.
yada yada, everybody take it easy. especially you folks from key largo up to west palm. youll be the first to hear from debby, stateside anyway.

HELP anyone collen ,richard ,steve,alan (#36)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 06:42PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (QYYNRRWNQSQNTX*)

Is anyone having trouble getting on the posts on mike site if so please tell me soi can see if its my comp or its the server down

Mike's Discussion Site Down (#37)
Posted by: Phil Location: Melbourne,FL
Posted On 06:45PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (QRNWWNRTSNVS*)

It's not your computer. I can't get into the discussion forum on Mike's site either. The server must be down.

Bad timing (#38)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 06:48PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (QYYNRRWNQSQNTX*)

well that sucks

Mike's Server Has been Problems All Day (#39)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 07:08PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNRT*)

I emailed him earlier and told him about it...I am sure he is on the problem as we speak.


To Alan, Richard, Robert Etc. (#40)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 07:14PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNRT*)

Just talked to Mike and he is working on the problem....just wanted to let everyone know.

Mike server... (#41)
Posted by:
Richard Byett ( Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 07:19PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNTQNWT*)

I can access chat, but not the msg board on mike site

Debby (#42)
Posted by:
Dean Dysart Location: Ft. Lauderdale
Posted On 08:29PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (VSNSPNRPUNRQV*)

It's been 8 yrs. since we've had a major hurricane (andrew). I think we're due for another one. Lets hope it's nothing more than a cat.1......Hope Debby doesn't turn into a bitch.

Debby (#43)
Posted by:
Dean Dysart Location: Ft. Lauderdale
Posted On 08:30PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (VSNSPNRPUNRQV*)

It's been 8 yrs. since we've had a major hurricane (andrew). I think we're due for another one. Lets hope it's nothing more than a cat.1......Hope Debby doesn't turn into a bitch.

Looking like a hurricane (#44)
Posted by: JoeP Location: O-Town/FL
Posted On 09:59PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RPYNRTTNQTVNQT*)

It sure looks to me like the last few IR sat pics are showing a definite strengthening and much better organization. I would expect Debby to be a hurricane by the 11PM or at least the 5AM advisory. If nothing else, there should be a much better center defined for the forecast models.

I Agree Joe... (#45)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 10:19PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNQUX*)

I am sorry but I thought the LLCC was now embedded in the CDO for sure..sure looks a lot better than it did before...guess we will find out at 11!!!

I cant get in mike andersons chat grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr (#46)
Posted by: robert
Posted On 10:59PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RPWNSVNRQRNQXX*)

what the hell is wrong with computer their so f*ing anoying you dc for one second your screwed out of a chat rooom grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
what do i do i have a duplicet of my self sitting there with my IP adress and im going insane it wont get booted or anything

Chat (#47)
Posted by: JoeP Location: O-Town/FL
Posted On 11:12PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RPYNRTTNQTVNQT*)

You should have joined the chat from this site. It didn't include Mike Anderson, but still very good. Several people with opinions.

Debby (#48)
Posted by: Joe
Posted On 11:18PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RQVNSNQXRNYQ*)

Still not a Hurricane but I think it will become
one my Tomorrow Morning for sure.The pressure has
dropped 6mb.It may be trying to form an eye wall.
Florida landfall by Friday

Gulf (#49)
Posted by: jimmy
Posted On 11:24PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RQVNWWNQUWNR*)

check out (track two). this seems to indicate a very good possibility that the path could go through the straits and into the gulf. Any comments?

Debby (#50)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 11:48PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNST*)

Actually, Debby's pressure dropped 10mbs in 3 hours and their our signs that an eyewall is trying to form...I think this was somewhat of a shock. I say batten down the hatces, Florida..Debby's on her way.

Not good for land in Debby's way (#51)
Posted by: Brian Location: Hollywood, Florida
Posted On 01:00AM 22-Aug-2000 with id (QSWNURNRPPNYX*)

After watching a good Dolphins performance, I have reviewed the data and have taken the liberty to provide my projection. To begin, Puerto Rico is going to take a serious direct hit from this system. There appears to be no mistaking that at this point. All models are in agreement. However, the long range outlook is becoming rather complicated. It appears the models are all beginning to move the system a bit farther to the south than earlier anticapated. But at the same time, the models are split as to the projected impact the trough moving down from the Midwest into the Northeast will have on Debby. Therefore, one may either refrain from guessing, or take a stab at the outcome. I'll take my chances and make a guess, based upon the CURRENT IFORMATION. I believe that if this were an average or normal summer, the system would pass to the south of Miami and go directly into the keys entering into the Gulf. However, this year has been abnormally cold in the Northeast, as a result of unusually strong troughs sweeping through areas of the East, including as far south as Southern Georgia. Therefore, I anticipate this unseasonable strong trough to lift Debbie once it reaches about a quarter of the way up Cuba's northeastern coast, and then become influenced by the trough, pulling her north into even more favorable conditions, causing her to gain intensity, and cross somewhere between Islamorada and West Palm Beach. From there, I am completely unsure. THE ABOVE IS JUST A GUESS WITH THE CURRENT INFO.

Projections (#52)
Posted by:
Ed Dunham Location: Melbourne, FL
Posted On 01:07AM 22-Aug-2000 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNSS*)

Well if you never make a forecast you can never take credit for being wrong, so here goes (keep in mind that forecasters reserve the right to amend their forecast :)): Landfall between Miami and Fort Lauderdale at 2pm (18Z) Friday - intensity at landfall 90kts. Passing over Lake Oke during the late afternoon and just west of Melbourne (as a minimal hurricane) around 2am (06Z) Saturday morning. Exiting back into the Atlantic near Daytona Beach at 8am (12Z) Saturday morning. Okay, I've stuck my neck out - now tear it apart!

Compliments to the Orlando Dude on some good comments in his earlier post. Colleen is correct - its time for Florida to get ready.

BRAVO (#53)
Posted by:
Ed Dunham Location: Melbourne, FL
Posted On 01:10AM 22-Aug-2000 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNSS*)

Hey Brian at least you took a crack at it - good show!

upgrade (#54)
Posted by: Frank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 01:58AM 22-Aug-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)

well friends and neighbors, the inevitable. by the way, see that northwesterly jog debby's taken. might help the storm clear more of the larger islands ahead and maintain a bit more strength than indicated in the official forecast.. guess we'll see if that verifies by noon tomorrow.

Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 05:30AM 22-Aug-2000 with id (QRNWWNQSRNQQU*)

Hello All,
Well Debby turned into a hurricane durring the night and is moving a bit more north than yesterday. This motion should continue today and most likely tommorow as well. It put Debby just north of the Dominican Republic and southeast Cuba in 48 hours and just north of central Cuba in 72 hours. Models are changing this morning with the GFDN & GFDL now taking Debby westward just under Florida and off the coast of southwest Florida late Friday. The forcasted strength at that time is around 100mph winds(Cat#2).. South Florida is now becomming a concern and people from the Florida Keys and up the east coast to West Palm Beach and up the west coast to Ft Myers need to keep close eye on Debby and its path. There are some models that bring Debby up to a Cat#3 storm as it approaches Florida so its time. Tropical Storm Watches were changed to Hurricane Watches in the southern Bahamas and I expect hurricane watches to be extended up the east coast of Cuba and into the central Bahamas at 11am or 2pm advisory and some parts of south Florida by early Wednesday. The next 24 hours should get interesting if Debby continues on her present track!!!I know its still a bit away to really know but right now its my best guess.

Debby, and Florida (#56)
Posted by:
Richard Byett ( Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 06:39AM 22-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNSTNSQ*)

Well like most of you, i think it is looking increasingly likely that Debby will impact southern Florida later this week. I expect her to be a strong CAT 2 storm, if not a CAT 3. As for her track before then, i anticipate a course that takes the centre over PR, then over the northern Dominican Republic, possibly over the northern parts of Haiti, then just off shore of Cuba before heading towards the Keys or floridas mainland south of West Palm Beach. Again this is just a guess but that is what we are here for :)

Is that an eye? (#57)
Posted by:
Richard Byett ( Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 07:10AM 22-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNSTNSQ*)

Well i have just viewed the first available visible sat imagery, and it looks to me like an eye is trying to form. The apparent eye is located just to the southwest of Barbuda, midway between that island and the islands of St.Kitts and Nevis. Obviously the image is the first visible, so the whole storm is not completely illuminated. However the apparent eye would be close to where NHC say the centre of the storm should be. IR imagery would seem to indicate that if this is an eye it is located to the south of the bulk of the convection. However there is convection completely wrapped around this apparrent eye. It looks as if it mmay pass directly over St Kitts, as well as Saba and St. Eustatius. It will be interesting to see what will happen with the storms intensity and organisation if this is indeed an eye!
well we will have to wait for more info and more images to see if i am right or not!

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