CFHC Talkback For News Story #70:
Newest Talkback: 12:55 AM 08-24 EDT

Debby Weakens Temporarily
11:08 AM EDT - 23 August 2000

5PM Update:

The NHC lowered windspeed to 50MPH, but Debby is still not looking good at all. If it goes into Cuba I doubt it can survive. The other choices are going north or south of Cuba, and that's about a 50/50 shot for either. Debby did the unexpected, will the unexpected happen again?

1PM Update:

Mandatory Evacuation Ordered for all non-Florida Keys residents in the Florida Keys effective at Noon Today

Debby is encountering more sheer and land effects, and isn't looking as good as it did before. The center of cirulation is on the west side of the convection, so it is having trouble again. Debby looks like it won't restrengthen until tomorrow. This is an unexpected twist in the story of Debby (or at least, I didn't expect this) and the storm may wind up repositioning itself to survive, if it survives. Thanks Steve H. & Brian for bringing this to our attention.

Alberto has become Extratropical as well and is no longer being tracked.

Debby's Low Level Circulation Center racing away
Debby's Low Level Circulation Center Diving into Hispaniola Reform possible?

Original Update:

Due to some interaction with Hispaniola and a bit of shear Debby went down to Tropical Storm this morning. A strong tropical storm. It should rebound later tonight and tomorrow when it moves away from Hispaniola and strengthen. The southern inflow is being affected by the mountains there.

The current NHC forecast track takes it up South Florida (over Key Largo) over Florida toward the core of the state to the western side with a hint of a northerly turn. This could be shifted left or right more later... So the Keys must take it seriously too.

There are some indications that Debby may slow forward motion too, so it looks Friday Night- Saturday timeframe for landfall at the moment.

Several Models put it into the Gulf, including the MRF, which means folks in the panhandle, Alabama, etc. will want to watch it too.

Still a lot of speculation. It still could go into the Gulf, but the South Florida scenario is still more likely. (Getting to be 50/50 chance wise). Still a lot up in the air.

We are tentively scheduling a chat at 7PM tonight lasting for as long as we feel the need. Jim Williams at
Hurricane City will be doing another live broadcast at 8PM.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Debby (Good Forecast Track Graphic) Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens. Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.

Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Weathervine Storm Intercept Team's Audio and Video broadcasts
Live Webcam image from Florida Emergency Management's Emergency Operations Center
Florida Emergency Management Activation Page / Situation Updates
Nice Satellite Image of Atlantic (IR Colorized)

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

- [mac]

Show All Comments

Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #64 (of 64 total)

Core of the state? (#1)
Posted by:
alan Location: orlando
Posted On 11:13AM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)

Where do you see core of the state. The 72 hour prediction has it in Florida bay heading NW. It would have to turn due north to go up the core of the state.
Just wondering if I'm missing something.

50/50 (#2)
Posted by: Steve h.
Posted On 11:15AM 23-Aug-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

Mike C., do you still foresee a nw turn at some point ? I don't see strong evidence for that, but I haven't looked at data about the trough that is supposed to dig southward to ALA/GA. However if it slows and waits then reacts to the trough later, the east FL coast could see her miami northward. ANy thoughts on this? Is the FL east coast out of the woods?

Core (#3)
Posted by:
Mike C. ( Location: Newport News, VA
Posted On 11:16AM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RPVNRTVNRRPNRUP*)

The curve suggests it may be going a bit more to the north at that point. Better wording would be toward instead of into. I will change this.

East Florida coast (#4)
Posted by:
Mike C. ( Location: Newport News, VA
Posted On 11:18AM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RPVNRTVNRRPNRUP*)

Is not out of the woods. The track is probably going to be wrong to the left or to the right. If it's to the right it would be a problem for the east coast of Florida.

Don't assume it won't affect you until it is well north of your lattitude.

East v. West (#5)
Posted by: Brian Location: Hollywood, Florida
Posted On 11:40AM 23-Aug-2000 with id (QSWNURNRPPNQTX*)

It seems to me that the "dirty" side of the Storm, the NE quadrant, would strike S.E. Fla. if Debby moves up the W. coast of Fl. But this all is still up in the air. If the storm enter between Marathon and Homestead (poor Homestead) then N. Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach would get the worst of the storm. If it moves in around Broward, then Palm Beach up through Vero stand to be the amongst the most impacted areas. We'll see.

Great grammar (#6)
Posted by: Brian Location: Hollywood, Florida
Posted On 11:42AM 23-Aug-2000 with id (QSWNURNRPPNQTX*)

enter - enters the amongst the = amongst the

westward movment (#7)
Posted by: mark Location: new orleans
Posted On 12:12PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (SXNSQNQTYNQVQ*)

for the past few days we have had storms moving from east to west in the gom. Doesn't this show signs of a high pressure system. If it is wouldn't it keep Debby moving in a more westerly course than nw?

forecast (#8)
Posted by: jimmy
Posted On 12:18PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RQVNWWNQUWNR*)

I know it is too far out, but it appears that TWC is anticipating a move up the west coast of FL in the Gulf. Also, What time do the new forecast models come out. I am curious to see if they remain on their more westward track. with this westward movement, it looks more likely that the track will enter the gulf.

Debby (#9)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 12:20PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

Debby is in trouble. Her Low-Level circulation has run way ahead of the mid-level circulation (LLCC at 20N/71W) leaving all her convection behind between DR and PR. If she marches west towards cuba and encounters land she is dead. If she can turn more NW then she has a chance to re-intensify. This may take some work on her part though since her LLCC is nearly exposed at this point, and I'll bet at TD status or just above. See latest NRL vis closeup loop of Debby, it's very clear.

new eye formation possible (#10)
Posted by: Brian Location: Hollywood, Florida
Posted On 12:46PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (QSWNURNRPPNQTX*)

it is possible that the mid level rotation may fall to the sea floor, creating a new eye, and low level circulation, thereby stacking herself in a new position. This may be occuring to the ENE of the original low level rotation.

Mid level rotation (#11)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 12:56PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

Brian, you see what I mean though with the LLCC to the west of the convection. Yes the mid Level could go to the floor, and I think it has to happen if she is to survive. The old adage, a house divided cannot stand is appropriate. If it does reform to the North and East.. WE have a new ballgame. I don't think the NHC is expecting this or should I say was expecting this Cheers!

Mid Level Rotation (#12)
Posted by:
Mike C. ( Location: Newport News, VA
Posted On 01:05PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RPVNRTVNRRPNRUP*)

I haven't looked at it for a few hours, but you both are right. Things are getting interesting again.

Gulf (#13)
Posted by:
Posted On 01:06PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RTNTNRURNQVP*)

Regardless, storms are notorious for hitting Florida on one side of the state, running through the state and then exiting through the other side. Florida is also notorious for having storms make return engagements after they have exited.

This appears to be a deja vu. A few people noted this much earlier when they mentioned Georges of last season.

New LLCC? (#14)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 01:09PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

The LLCC is crashing and burning on the NW DR coast right now, but Brian's point about a new Low-Level Circulation forming to the NE looks like it is taking place. The "old" one is opening up and heading SW into the NW Domincan Republic. That will mean if a new one is trying to form (and I think it is but it's hard to see through the convection), then it won't be competing with the old one. There are hints of rotation to the NE of the last position. IF this occurs, then SE florida could be the target again . Stay tuned!

Hmm (#15)
Posted by:
Mike C. ( Location: Newport News, VA
Posted On 01:13PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RPVNRTVNRRPNRUP*)

This may be a turning point for Debby. I'm working on a graphic illustrating the point about the LLCC now. Thanks a ton for the heads up. Making a site that I can't wait to check myself is extremely rewarding because of things like this. Thanks.

LLCC and Future Track (#16)
Posted by: clyde w. Location: orlando
Posted On 01:19PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (VSNWSNRQSNU*)

What would the impact on the current forecast track be if the LLCC reforms to the NE? Would it be more likely to catch the trough and turn north into Florida? Would Debby weaken dramatically and then restrengthen just as quickly? I can't remember another storm doing this so noticeably in recent memory. Any additional thoughts or insights would be most rewarding!

even after reforming...... (#17)
Posted by: Rick Location: Mobile, Al
Posted On 01:22PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RPYNQRNVYNRQP*)

if it should form slightly north and east....would the general wwnw trend still apply? I remember Frederic did the same thing...stayed real weak through the land masses, but emerged still young and with great upside potential. It arrived in 79 in Mobile as a strong cat 3. I know we all know the potential of you think she could weaken to just a wave? we shall see.

damn Debby just got Raped (#18)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 01:26PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RPWNSVNRQRNX*)

loking at close up IR from Nasa websight the LLcc is almost on the other side of DR what happend in the few hours i was at school

Questionable reformation (#19)
Posted by: Brian Location: Hollywood, Florida
Posted On 01:29PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (QSWNURNRPPNQTX*)

I am beginning to re-asses my earlier predictions of entry of a (3)or (4) entering between Islamorada (Marathon) and West Palm Beach. However, one can not fail to notide that the system is becoming extremely disorganized with each hour. Most important will be the next 6 hours, as this will dictate whether a new eye forms. If a new eye wall does not fall to sea level from the upper and mid level rotation, I believe we may be dealing with a strong depression or weak T.S. by morning. Such a system would most likely stay south of the keys or brush the keys and enter the Gulf, where I believe the formation of a (5) is certainly a reality, as the waters have not been churned up yet this year, leaving Debbie 88 degree waters at the gas pump. Yet, if Debbie re-forms a new eye, I will opt to stick with my earlier predictions. Right now, it seems no one, not even NHC has a clue what or why this is going on.

So let me get this strait (#20)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 01:31PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RPWNSVNRQRNX*)

If debby forms a knew low level circulation xhe will be over open water, further north ,pushed east for more time for trough to arrive. right and also if she forms a knew LLCC those circulations will be stacked? meaning intesfication time

Graphic (#21)
Posted by:
Mike C. ( Location: Newport News, VA
Posted On 01:32PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RPVNRTVNRRPNRUP*)

I placed up the graphic showing what is going on. I'm really at a loss to describe what will happen now. I'm surprised the NHC hasn't done a special tropical storm update on this. Anyone with the background care to comment on this more?

Weak System (#22)
Posted by: Brian Location: Hollywood, Florida
Posted On 01:39PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (QSWNURNRPPNQTX*)

If Debby falls apart and becomes a weak T.s. or Depression, the chances become even less likely for any trough, regardless of strength, to lift it north... as a disorganized storm tends to do it's own thing.

forecast models (#23)
Posted by: jimmy
Posted On 01:46PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RQVNWWNQUWNR*)

could this be the reason for the huge differences in the forecast models. could some of the models have anticipated this and forecast based on the new center while the others were still fixed on the original?

Debby falling apart badly. (#24)
Posted by: Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee, Fl
Posted On 02:10PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNSY*)

I would not be surprised to see Debby downgraded to a TD by the 5:00 PM EDT update. Recon stated the center was only 5NM from the coast. I am beginning to doubt that Debby will survive through the night.

Debbie Dissipating (#25)
Posted by: Bill Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 02:19PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Believe this is happening, an answer to prayers!



About Debby (#26)
Posted by:
Mike C. ( Location: Newport News, VA
Posted On 02:38PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RPVNRTVNRRPNRUP*)

Snonut wrote in response to this:


I sure did notice that. Extremely interesting. I'm not exactly sure what to make of it sure is not getting back to hurricane status very soon thats for sure.

I guess two possibilities exist....LL cloud swirl will continue west and develop more
convection over 12-24 hours and become a "new" Debby....or the more likely scenario for a new center to re-form under the deep convection as you said.

Ramifications for Florida....If LL swirl takes over down the road it is going to be of little concern to Florida as it will head WEST into the way of south of or over cuba...this is best case scenario for florida...and that LL Swirl will make good headway
being pushed by the LL steering.

On the other hand...if a new center forms under the deep convection we're back where we started only a day or so behind schedule...since the center will be clear of the islands and will head on a more w.n.w. track from a further north starting point.

Very interesting to say the least...I've not seen anything like this in a long time.

Gonna make for some interesting updates in the hours ahead!

So true...

On the same token. (#27)
Posted by:
Mike C. ( Location: Newport News, VA
Posted On 02:42PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RPVNRTVNRRPNRUP*)

It's very possible that Debby could just dissipate. (Best news of all) However, don't let you guard down, though. It could pull another crazy stunt.

so much for forecasting.. (#28)
Posted by: Frank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 02:45PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)

well, debby has come undone today. its that persistent westward jog that avn among other discredited models kept leaning towards. throw a sloppy little storm like debby at the coast of hispaniola and watch it splatter. last night most people (myself included) were talking about a major hurricane landfall in south florida; now all we have is a low cloud swirl racing away from its convection. i dont see clear evidence of a center reformation or any convective help coming to the stranded llc.. unless debby does something (else) unexpected, this storm is done for. between the north coast of haiti, the south coast of cuba, and the upper low over the yucatan.. debby will probably get chewed up. knock on wood, watch this storm botch another forecast.
totally dumbfounded... take it easy folks.

LLC (#29)
Posted by: jimmy
Posted On 03:00PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RQVNWWNQUWNR*)


Debbie (#30)
Posted by: Chris (
http://Chris) Location: Mobile
Posted On 03:07PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RQVNXUNWWNRST*)

I enjoy reading everyone's predicitions, some based upon current meteorological data, some based upon wishes. As you all know, no one knows what Debbie will do until she does it. (Just like a woman!) Call me in a week and I will tell you what Debbie did.

Bye-Bye (#31)
Posted by: Gerry Location: Venice Fl
Posted On 03:24PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (VSNRUNTTNQWQ*)


Don't be decieved (#32)
Posted by: Pensacolian
Posted On 03:26PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (VTNQRNQPTNQXX*)

Frederic in 79' was a TD all the way to the Gulf over Cuba and then exploded, I'm not writing ANYTHING off.

AGREED (#33)
Posted by: jimmy
Posted On 03:34PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RQVNWWNQUWNR*)


This season is two wierd (#34)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 03:51PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (QYYNRRWNQWSNSR*)

what the HELL happend, it like the car stopped but the body kept going.

Well anyways the LLCC is defintly dieing but im not ruling out what is looking like a knew LLCC if nothing improves in the next few hours debby died Via Car wreck into a mountain

There is a new pulse (#35)
Posted by: Gerry Location: Venice Fl
Posted On 04:06PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (VSNRUNTTNQWQ*)

Ya all take a look at the latest infa red and visible--see what ya think?

Posted by: scottsvb (
Posted On 04:10PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (VSNRSNQXUNWV*)

Just to let everyone know,,click on the url for my site i post what i feel will happen on my home page,,takes 5 seconds,,,,and in brief here,,,she will come back south of Cuba actually and move nw later,,,more details are on my site,,please go there and i will expain more.

nogaps & avn Models (#37)
Posted by: jimmy
Posted On 04:20PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RQVNWWNQUWNR*)

Both of these models predicted this westward and even west-southwestward movement and weakening this morning followed by rapid intensification later just west Southwest of Cuba. This could become an even more serious situation for the northern Gulf if this occurs. Gerry, I do agree that there has been a very small flare up around the center and look for this to continue as soon as the center gets off the coast.

Gerry--New Pulse? (#38)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:22PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNTW*)

Could explain where you see it? Thanks!!! I am not very good at this lol!!!

Well, I'm stumped. (#39)
Posted by: Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee, Fl
Posted On 04:24PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNW*)

Whats left looks like a tropical wave. I sure can tell anything from surface obs or definative from the sat pics. While there still may be a LLCC, it doesn't look very viable. I really can't see any significant for a circulation center in the convective areas. I'll be very interested to see if the Hurricane Hunters find anything.

Erk. Hit post instead of preview (#40)
Posted by: Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee, Fl
Posted On 04:25PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNSQ*)

can tell= can't tell.

Recon (#41)
Posted by: StormHound Location: O-Town
Posted On 04:36PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (QRNSUNQWNR*)

Seems like we could sure use some recon flights about now to try and figure out what's happening.

West, then back in the Gulf as a mean woman..... (#42)
Posted by: Rick Location: Mobile, Al
Posted On 04:50PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RQVNXUNWWNQXT*)

she is simply biding her time. She can't possibly build up on land...but the low level circulation is there, as well as temperatures in the water she is about to go back over, well in the upper 80's. Anyone who thinks this is over doesn't realize that if she were just a depression, we'd all be saying she is gonna form once she goes back over what's changed?
It should be obvious that once she re-emerges, it's a new and more dangerous ball game for those on the northern Gulf Coast.....

new nhc forecast (#43)
Posted by: jimmy
Posted On 04:56PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RQVNWWNQUWNR*)

This seems like an interesting track considering the more westward movement. They are still forecasting a sharp turn northward in 48 to 72 hrs. Can someone explain why the turn is even sharper than it was before?

Interesting forecast (#44)
Posted by: Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee, Fl
Posted On 05:01PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNW*)

I'm not too sure the current strength isn't overstated. I find myself wondering if the storm can survive a trip over Cuba.

Confusion? (#45)
Posted by:
Randy Location: Charleston.SC
Posted On 05:06PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (TNTXNQTXNQVQ*)

I didn't see much of Debby left as far as her LLCC was concerned on recent sat pics. However, a quick glimpse to the NE shows definite rotation, and to look at the flare up over the DR mountains, that convection appears to be moving toward this "New" circulation. I'm not educated, but does it appear that way to anyone else? And if this did occur with the circulation still associated with Debby, would we end up with another named storm?

New LLCC? (#46)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 05:15PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNTS*)

I just looked at the most recent NRL visible and the area that Mike C. was pointing to as a possible new LLCC is can now see right down to the surface of the ocean on this...maybe that is why the probabilities went up this last advisory...anyone else see it? Please tell me I am not seeing things!!!

NRL image (#47)
Posted by: mark Location: new orleans
Posted On 05:20PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (SXNSQNQTYNQWS*)

what is the address for the NRL latest?

center (#48)
Posted by: jimmy
Posted On 05:23PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RQVNWWNQUWNR*)

it looks to me like the center is directly over the center oh haiti right now and the new convection is rotating on the east side to the north. could be making a southwest jog.

other center (#49)
Posted by: jimmy
Posted On 05:32PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RQVNWWNQUWNR*)

are you guys talking about the thing at about 71.4 69.9? That does look interesting

Jimmy (#50)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 05:45PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNQUT*)

Yes, that's what I was talking about...I think the link is under "storm links" here, under Eric Blake's Weather Page or something like that, than hit NRL Monteray satellite pictures, and it should bring up the latest one, which is the one I am referring to....hope that helps!!! Colleen

no other center (#51)
Posted by: scottsvb (
Posted On 06:16PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (VSNQQNQVTNQVW*)

winds are divergent in that area in the mid levels,,the main low level circulation is just n of porto prince Haiti,,moving slightly s of due west,,she should possibly move just south of the cuba coast and sustain herself later or even slowly drop the preessure a few mb' the other circulation is nopt note worthy

Hurricane Hunters (#52)
Posted by: Cathy Location: Bartow, FL
Posted On 06:22PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNQWX*)

Channel 8 out of Tampa stated that NOAA Hurricane Hunters going out at 9pm for 6 hours. 11:00 news will have the data.

What is making the storm move south? Not following this part at all.

Local News said.... (#53)
Posted by: Noel
Posted On 06:35PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQTU*)

Miami on up to Louisiana better watch this weekend. The track is changing.

My thoughts on the models troubles (#54)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 06:37PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (QYYNRRWNRPNQVT*)

i belive one reason for this years troubling predictions the over all setup this year is diffrent from the past "30 - 40 years from what ive heard some places" , and lots of models use past climatological data to help predict storm pathes and with the models surrounded bye past data that is overall diffrent from this year their getting serously screwed up

Debby (#55)
Posted by: Joe Location: Tampa
Posted On 06:40PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RQVNSNQXRNYT*)

The track keeps moving further and further to the
Left.The 72 hour forecast shows it off shore of
Fort Myers.Last night they thought it would be near Miami in 72 hours.I'am not to sure where its
going to go.The National Weather Service in Tampa
says there could be some rain and Wind by Late
Friday and into the Weekend.I think it could even
weekend to a Tropical Depression.We will see.


Dennis,,Floyd -- Debby,,Florence (#56)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 06:42PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (QYYNRRWNRPNQVT*)

think about now, wouldent that be ironic huh?

check this out (#57)
Posted by:
Posted On 07:13PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RPYNRUUNUNQSX*)

here is something you guys might find interesting.go to the FNMOC wave forecast at "".it tracks wave sizes over a 144 hr period based on the navy forecasts.surfinfo just brings it down so the average surfer can understand it.anyhow you can follow these storms potential track using this charts and last year i noticed that when everyone,including the NHC was trying to figure out where a storm was going they kind of stuck with their original prediction and it turned out to be right in the end.floyd was a good example of this.floyd followed the exact path they were showing 96 hours before the storm passed by florida.of course they are always tweaking it a bit like everyone else does with these models but i began following debby on their charts since like sunday and they have not waivered on the prediction that this storm is going through the florida sraits and then into the gulf of mexico.they have changed where it will end up once it is in the gulf though.according to wave size they show an intensifying storm once it is in there and ending up in the louisiana to florida panhandle area.i know this is a bit simplistic but we surfers need it that way.anyway,check it out.

Some Comments (#58)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 07:18PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYTNQXS*)

I agree with Frank...Debby looks like a deader for now. While I agree that it might pull a "Frederic" or "Claudette" (same year), the odds seem to be against it, regardless of the possibilities. No way that LLCC could survive a trip over Cuba.

Rick brings up an interesting point...he says that if Debby were a depression, we'd be saying that if it just got over water it would reintensify, so what's the diff? My answer is that it takes a lot more than warm water to get a storm, let alone a hurricane, really going.

So, I'd say keep an "eye" on it, but unless a *dramatic* turnaround happens, Debby's probably on her way out.

Circulations (#59)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 07:19PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (QYYNRRWNRPNQVT*)

latest sat i can pick out several circulations and some other possible ones, one south of cuba over open water, another dissapating over north hati, one possible but doubt it NE of DR,and one more SE of DR but its interesting to see the knew LLCC south of cuba and west of central DR

correction (#60)
Posted by:
Posted On 07:26PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RPYNRUUNUNQSX*)

opps,i just checked the wave chart again and and at this point it looks like they have it headed more towards the louisiana -north texas coast 144 hours out.course i know that can change.

Hahaaha LOL (#61)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 07:32PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (QYYNRRWNRPNQVT*)

Debby does Dallas

All this tells me one thing (#62)
Posted by: Terry
Posted On 08:19PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNSR*)

We are not a smart as we think we are. We as a people have a lot to learn about Mother Nature.

Debby is Dead!

South Florida Major Hurricane Climatology (#63)
Posted by:
Perry Williams (http://N/A) Location: Douglasville, Georgia
Posted On 08:25PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RPYNRTPNRRPNRRP*)

During the 120 year period of hurricane data from 1880-1999---ONLY four major hurricanes have made landfall in Southern Florida in the month of August---In 1880 between Cocoa Beach and Vero Beach; August 14, 1888 in Dade County; August 26, 1949 near Palm Beach; and of course Andrew eight years ago tomorrow--four in 120 years makes it almost rare (Cleo in Aug. 1964 was ALMOST a Cat 3--90 kt/ 967 mb).
Both September (13..last Betsy in 1965) and October (5...last King in 1950) are more likely--climatologically--in South Florida.
In August--for the period 1900-1999--the most likely US states for major landfalling August hurricanes were Texas and North Carolina).
As for Debby--I'd give her a 50/50 chance of survival--BUT if she stays alive and passes south of Cuba--as several models are indicating--she could regenerate (ala Frederic)--and present a serious threat to the Gulf Coast in a few days!

Standing By Prediction (#64)
Posted by: Brian Location: Hollywood, Florida
Posted On 12:55AM 24-Aug-2000 with id (QSWNURNRPPNX*)

At 1:00 p.m. yesterday, August 23, I claimed "If a new eye wall does not fall to sea level from the upper and mid level rotation, I believe we may be dealing with a strong depression or weak T.S. by morning." Good night from South Florida, and best of luck to all those from Galveston to Pensacola...I think Camille's sister is coming :(

Show All Comments

Return to Central Florida Hurricane Center Main Page