CFHC Talkback For News Story #73:
Newest Talkback: 09:09 AM 08-24 EDT

TD#5 Forms North of Puerto Rico Moving WNW
11:03 PM EDT - 23 August 1999

Well TD#5 has formed. Southeast Coast residents (including Florida) need to watch it, as it has the potential to strengthen.

Future? Well the NHC has it up to hurricane strength in 72 hours (name would be Dennis). And moves it just east of the Bahamas toward the north.

Some models bring it close to the coast of North Carolina, but the GFDL (one of the better models) is perhaps the most interesting as it brings the track WEST of the NHC forecast. Which places it dangerously close. Some thought is that it may skim the coast of Florida Starting from around Stuart. It may miss Florida. It may miss the US Coast. It may make landfall in Florida before it turns north. It may come close enough to Florida to cause Watches and/or Warnings later.

I really don't know enough to call this one. The slow current movement complicates things and may make it miss a least one trof that has the potential to kick it out.

This is definately one for us Central Florida folk to watch out for.

Elsewhere... Cindy is still a TS Moving WNW. And TD#6 may be forming east of Cindy within a day or two.

More to come tomorrow. Comments on this are more than welcome.

For more information on Cindy see the Current Storm Spotlight for Cindy.
For more information on TD#5 see the Current Storm Spotlight for Bret.
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Weather Channel Caribbean Sat Image
Intellicast Caribbean IR Loop
Intellicast Atlantic IR Loop

More Sat images: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.


- [jc]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #4 (of 4 total)
TD # 5 DENNIS SOON (#1)
Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 11:18PM 23-Aug-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNTT*)

Iam going to stay with you all on this one so let's get right in to it, I have looked at several factors tonight , and im very concerned about this.I have been watching the loop for over an hour now and im sure that the circulation has reformed a bit farther to the west than most models might have thought, what this means is that the system will get farther west than forecasted, at this time im not even sure that the motion is wnw im betting on w,As for my thoughts on this system im throwing most models out the window tonight as i feel most are way out to lunch on this, im expecting a brush or even a slight landfall in the STUART area, as for strenth i also expect a modest Hurricane, However i do need to look at more tonight to really make this call but im feeling my gut on this one based on what im seeing so please stay tuned, Folks along the florida coast should begin to make some preps in regard to this developing tropical system Mike Anderson , again id like to hear from Mike on this , ill be back to check.
TD#5 (#2)
Posted by: Mike Cornelius (http://flhurricane.com) Location: New Smyrna Beach, FL
Posted On 11:28PM 23-Aug-1999 with id (QUSNSUNWSNUQ*)

Mike I can see where you are coming from with the thinking. I'll be very interested in waking up tomorrow to check out the new models with the NOAA Jet data involved.

I'm not brave enough to make the Stuart call yet, though. But I can definitely see how it can happen. And the GFDL model supports you. I'm sure you and I both realize that folks should be aware that we may get watches/warnings later in the week and fill up... etc before the mad rush in case this does not do as the NHC wants it to.

I'll be ready anyway. I think the all of the East Coast Florida folks here will want to know every bit of info we can get. I'll be busy tomorrow so updates may be few.

If it were to affect Florida, when? Thursday Friday Saturday?

Great job, Mike. Thanks.
THE TIME,AND WHY (#3)
Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 12:05AM 24-Aug-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNTW*)

Mike you are right on with the thinking , some of the models do not pick up some things well , however im sure that the center has reformed farther west than it was today and thats why the convection split around 3:00 today ,My thinking is that the system should get very close to the florida coast by wednesday night at best, As far as pos tonight i think the center is more like 20.8 68.7 from the ship report. WHY i think it will brush the coast , well the ridge will break down but the trough will not really dig untill wed, by that time the system will have moved west so that when the turn to the N comes it will be a slow looping turn rather than a sharp turn, Second i dont think the first trough will bump it north, ridge should hold through the first trough, give me a thought back, Mike Anderson
TD #5 My Thinking (#4)
Posted by: SirCane
Posted On 12:09PM 24-Aug-1999 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNQXV*)

In 1995 Hurricane Erin was right about the spot where TD #5 is. People said Erin would move the the N, instead it moved NW for a while then turned WNW over FLorida, into the Gulf and made landfall in Pensacola, FL. It appears to me that the Trough ahead of TD #5 is weakening greatly, I see nothing to stop this thing from making a clear cut through Florida and into the Gulf. I think models will eventually show this, then a N turn in the Gulf. Usually models end up moving as time goes by. Models had Hurricane Bret making landfall south of Tampico for a long time, then it gradually went North to the border of Texas and Mexico, then it made landfall 70 miles north of the official track. I am not counting on a Northward turn.

SirCane
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