CFHC Talkback For News Story #75:
Newest Talkback: 07:27 PM 08-25 EDT

Cindy, Dennis & Emily.. (feel free to comment)
05:19 PM EDT - 24 August 1999

Somwhat of a surprise to return back home to not one, but TWO new Tropical Storms. Dennis has formed in from TD#5 and Emily has formed from a disurbance east of the Islands.

Emily is sitting and spinning and may cause the Caribbean a headache soon. And Cindy is still making a move toward the west, but still the furthest out.

In the east Atlantic is another wave that may form within 2 days. (4 storms at once? Pretty possible)

Of course, Tropical Storm Dennis, the most immediate threat. It's moving west northwest now and Storm Watches are up for a portion of the Bahamas. The $10,000,000 question... Where will it go? NHC's thought. In 72 hours it is 200 miles EAST of Daytona Beach, Florida. And will miss us. However this is not set in stone yet, and it will be a very close call, so it is imperitive we watch it. Most forecasting models (With a few exceptions) are now in agreement that it takes it north of us. Too far to say exactly where. Like Bertha (1995) and other storms in the past, the timing of the TURN will make or break us. This line of thinking gives the folks in North Carolina's coast something to worry about again--and they have had more than the fair share lately. Florida is NOT in an all clear--don't go to sleep on this one. I regret I will be fairly busy until Thursday Night so site updates will be sporadic. (I'll use any chance I get, however). Use the comment capability below the story headline to comment and discuss this, because I need some thoughts on what the storm will do.

I need to go through all our information and post again. Note that all three systems are expected to be Hurricanes by two days. (Possibly sooner)
For more information on Cindy see the Current Storm Spotlight for Cindy.
For more information on Dennis see the Current Storm Spotlight for Dennis.
For more information on Emily see the Current Storm Spotlight for Emily.
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Weather Channel Caribbean Sat Image
Intellicast Caribbean IR Loop
Intellicast Atlantic IR Loop

More Sat images: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.


- [jc]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #40 (of 40 total)
DENNIS (#1)
Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 08:02PM 24-Aug-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNRS*)

Looking at the the loops it appears that the cente of DENNIS is to the west of the convection , the center has been trying to wrap the convection around it all day long, im sure this will happen later this evening as the upper ridge is moving in tandum with this system, For folks along the Florida coast this is what i expect , im holding to my thoughts at this time expecting DENNIS will come close and a possible brush with the Florida coast is very possible,Some models are coming closer than a brush ,the models are as follows, GFDL has the system at 25.8 N 79.2 W heading and speed 318. /8.4 on its 78 hour forecast, other models are BAMD, and BAMM, I will be on and posting from time to time tonight thats it for now Mike Anderson Florida wx.
Dennis (#2)
Posted by: Alex Shevrovich Location: Palm Bay, FL
Posted On 08:11PM 24-Aug-1999 with id (VSNRRNPNVY*)

Mike or anyone what, if anything, will the current stationary movement (or lack of movement) do to forecasts?

Where are you getting the GFDL info?

You've been going against what I've heard from the local media and NHC with the forecast. What's the reasoning?

- Curious in Palm Bay.


Dennis (#3)
Posted by: Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 08:40PM 24-Aug-1999 with id (RPWNVYNTPNQWS*)

I believe that the current "stall" of TS Dennis is temporary; however, if it does become a trend, it would most likely cause the system to be pulled northwest and northward earlier than expected. BUT, there would be a very slim chance that the trough over the southeast U.S. would pass up Dennis...and with slightly greater chances if Dennis's center of circulation re-forms farther south beneath heavier convection. As noted before, the former situation would be most likely.

I think that the Hurricane Center's forecast track is on target. Dennis will not make it to east Florida before curving northward. The cloud motion to the north on satellite imagery also indicates that any motion past 24 hours would likely be more northerly than westerly. Granted, some of this cloud motion can be attributed to southwesterly wind shear, however.

About the GFDL model run...The GFDL no longer brings Dennis over/near Florida. The new run curves the storm well before reaching Florida as do most other models.

With this said, tropical cyclones can be very unpredictable. Hurricane Erin of of 1995 was in a similar location and situation as Dennis. Erin did move northwest for a time, but veered westerly across central Florida, re-emerging in the Gulf of Mexico.

Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.


DENNIS ? ? ? ? ? ? ? (#4)
Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 10:55PM 24-Aug-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNRX*)

Well im not convinced that the trough will pick DENNIS up and start the north movement, nor am i or was i trying to give the impression that it would make a landfall on the florida coast, i was calling for a brush and ill give my thoughts as to way now,DENNIS is a poorly organized system, untill the system get's better organized the trough would not have much of an affect on it, the system has been trying to reform and i think it has a bit farther south and it looks like it is heading due west , im not ready to hang up my forecast just yet but i will be the first to admit im wrong if i am Mike Anderson Florida wx
Dennis?? (#5)
Posted by: Alex Shevrovich Location: Palm Bay, FL
Posted On 06:28AM 25-Aug-1999 with id (VSNRQNWSNTU*)

This mornings models are beginning to support you slightly more Mike. But still I think the trough will pick it up, albeit later, soon enough to avoid the coast. Either way, it will be interesting to watch.

Alex in Palm Bay


Dennis (#6)
Posted by: Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 07:43AM 25-Aug-1999 with id (RPWNVYNTSNQY*)

Well, I'm starting to back down slightly on my forecast for a definitive northward turn. Dennis seems to be edging westward and with the uncertainty of the strength of the trough, Dennis could continue on a general west-northwest track, becoming a potential threat to Florida. For the time being, I still think that Dennis will turn northwestward, but at a later time than originally thought. I will say, however, that there is loads of uncertainty regarding Dennis's movement and a significant impact on Florida is possible.

Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.
DENNIS (#7)
Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 09:50AM 25-Aug-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNUQ*)

Good morning ive been very busy this morning, well looking at the models they are supporting my forecast , and im not changing it, the trough to the north of this system will break down and should have little to do with DENNIS, I have been looking for a brush on the florida coast, looks to me like around the STUART area as i have been saying, im also saying that Dennis should really get going later tonight as the shear , minoe shear that has been affecting the system will lesson later tonight, PLEASE all residents alont the Florida coast keep an eye on this system as i really feel ot will come very close if not make a landfall along the south florida coast, ill be with you all again later tonight Mike Anderson florida wx.
mike anderson (#8)
Posted by: alan byrd Location: orlando
Posted On 10:13AM 25-Aug-1999 with id (RPVNRVNRTYNTQ*)

Mike, you are looking like quite the hurricane guru. One question. Why do you have it so far south — as opposed to Cocoa or Daytona — and how far inland do you expect it to go?
Dennis / Mike A. (#9)
Posted by: Troy Orrest Location: Stuart, FL
Posted On 12:07PM 25-Aug-1999 with id (QSRNQWPNRPSNSU*)

I'm in Stuart and I am wondering the time table for this Mike. When would this be happening?

Troy
Dennis to Gulf? (#10)
Posted by: SirCane
Posted On 01:08PM 25-Aug-1999 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNWQ*)

As I look at water vapor the trough is dying out, I think ennis might make a track to the Gulf of Mexico. Thats the way i see it right now. The Longer its stationary the bigger the chance.
Dennis! (#11)
Posted by: In the Eye Jack
Posted On 02:30PM 25-Aug-1999 with id (QSRNQWPNRPSNSU*)

DENNIS looks good now. I don't think it can go in the Gulf now (without first crossing Florida), though. It would have to go almost due west!


In The Eye Jack
Thats what I mean (#12)
Posted by: SirCane
Posted On 03:44PM 25-Aug-1999 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNWX*)

Similiar track as Erin in 95', over Florida and into the gulf.

SirCane
into gulf (#13)
Posted by: alan byrd Location: orlando
Posted On 03:53PM 25-Aug-1999 with id (RPVNRVNRTYNTQ*)

It does look a lot like Erin, even to the place where it most likely would hit. But, with the recent increase in windspeed — from 45 mph to 65 mph in three hours — it could be much stronger. There could be some rapid growth right before it hits Florida simply because of the water temperature. The temperature is higher in the Bahamas than it has been in a long, long, long time.
If I'm not mistaken, Erin had winds of just 85 mph when it hit. By the time it got to Orlando, the winds were in the 40s. IF it crosses the state between Stuart and Cocoa, I would see Hurricane force winds in Orlando for the first time since Donna.
What do you all think?
HURRICANE Dennis (#14)
Posted by: Colleen Atwater Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:40PM 25-Aug-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNSW*)

I have just finished reading the recon information on Dennis, and this guy is a hurricane now (4:42pm). It showed 66kt winds in the NE quadrant, so I would assume the 5:00 advisory will be acknowledging this as a hurricane. I am sitting and tapping my fingers waiting this one out as I have big plans this weekend for which I have to fly out of Orlando. Maybe I will and maybe I won't be going anywhere. Hopefully, we will all be safe. Let me know what you think.
Dennis (#15)
Posted by: Alex Shevrovich Location: Palm Bay, FL
Posted On 04:46PM 25-Aug-1999 with id (QSRNQWPNRPSNSU*)

Well the NHC still keeps it off of Florida but heading it up to the Carolinas. And Colleen it's still a TS, for now.

Mike's scenario is unlikely in my view.

Alex in Palm Bay
DENNIS MAY INPACT FLORIDA ??? (#16)
Posted by: MIKE ANDERSON
Posted On 04:52PM 25-Aug-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNTS*)

Good afternoon i have been busy all day, and did not have the time to post so im going to get right into it now, DENNIS is doing just what i expected him to do, the trough to the north is not as strong as forecasted by the models, this would have been the factor in hooking him north but as time moves on thats looking like the long shot i thought three day's ago, im expecting that DENNIS will stay put through the better half of the night and than begin to move WNW, DENNIS could reach hurricane status sometime late tonight or early morning, with all this in mind in holding to my forecast with a brush along the florida coast, in time i may update that tonight to a more landfall and ill give more factors as to why im forecasting this , Mike Anderson Florida WX.
Dennis (#17)
Posted by: Alex Shevrovich Location: Palm Bay, FL
Posted On 05:07PM 25-Aug-1999 with id (QSRNQWPNRPSNSU*)

I'll be interested in seeing the later forecast from you Mike. It's been an interesting take on it. If you wind up being right (or fairly close) I'll eat my words, but I still thing it won't even get close enough to Florida for Warnings/Watches, but it will for SC/(Mostly)NC.

However, folks, just because I'm saying this does not mean that Mike's take is impossible. Far from it. I just think that the NC coast needs to worry about it more than Florida does. If my thinking changes on that I'll write something here ASAP.

Alex in Palm Bay
One More Thing... (#18)
Posted by: Alex Shevrovich Location: Palm Bay, FL
Posted On 05:11PM 25-Aug-1999 with id (QSRNQWPNRPSNSU*)

I do think Dennis will be upgraded to Hurricane Status at 8PM tonight.

Alex in Palm Bay
Dennis Isn't A Hurricane Yet :-) (#19)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, FL
Posted On 05:24PM 25-Aug-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNUT*)

I am humbly apologizing to my friends here. Although I must admit, sometimes I get overexcited and you know....anyway, I was pleased for Florida, dissapointed for SC/NC with the latest advisory. The models are still going with the trough pushing this thing and I have no idea if they are right or not, but usually they are so,,,,I am going with them. Thanks!!!!
water vapor image (#20)
Posted by: alan byrd Location: orlando
Posted On 05:28PM 25-Aug-1999 with id (RPVNRVNRTYNTQ*)

It looks like Dennis isn't the only thing that hasn't moved. Look at the water vapor image. You'll see that since this morning, the western end of the trough has dipped slightly further south. The low pressure system over the midwest is furter east, as is the trough. But most the system has not moved any closer toward Dennis. With this motion, Dennis would have to move further west to be picked up by the trough, furthering the thoughts of a cross-state trek.
A quick question, doesn't it suck to be a hurricane watcher when the storm doesn't do ANYTHING ALL DAY.
Will the official forcast change? (#21)
Posted by: John Cornelius (http://www.flhurricane.com) Location: Cocoa, FL
Posted On 05:35PM 25-Aug-1999 with id (RPXNQTNTQNXR*)

I belive the by morning (or sooner), the NHC will be changing there forcast track for Dennis. Where? I'm starting to lean more to Mike Andersons forecast. But only time will tell.
Dennis the Menace Track? (#22)
Posted by: SirCane
Posted On 06:01PM 25-Aug-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNQWX*)

Now I am for sureleaning toward a landfall around WPB Florida, a WNW track across Florida into the Gulf which poses problems for the Peninsula and Panhandle. Or From New Orleans to the Panhandle. It just keeps changing every advisory, the trough is weakening and I think the NHC will realize this by tomorrow.

~SirCane~
THE BIG DEEP TROUGH (#23)
Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 06:01PM 25-Aug-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNST*)

This is going to be a short post, to let all my readers who are thinking im way out there, Yes ill give you the trough is there , but if the trough was as strong as you all might be thinking ,think again, #1 it would have pulled him by now and the center would never have reformed to the SE, #2 the system is starting to create an envirnment of it's own with a 200mb high over the system, #3 REMEMBER OPAL, #4 im not backing off this forecast till i see more ,#5 if im right all it takes is NHC to shift the track farther left as if you all have been looking they have been,#6 im calling for this to be Hurricane DENNIS by tonight or sooner, and last but not least the AVN run does not have this trough as strong as it did in the earlier run's, Mike Anderson.
Dennis (#24)
Posted by: Jamie Orgeron
Posted On 06:15PM 25-Aug-1999 with id (RPYNRQTNQTWNRS*)

I'm not a metorolagist or anything close I just love to trak the storms. And yes it does suck if they do nothing all day long. Mike what are the chances of Dennis gulf.
Next 12 hours not moving (#25)
Posted by: Robert Location: Stuart florida near the inlet
Posted On 06:34PM 25-Aug-1999 with id (RPWNSVNRQRNSU*)

#1 I am 16 and have been watching the news talk abought if it doesent move in 12 hours
"It could cause a threat to Florida" what are they talking abought "Threat" and why.

Please anwser back
dennis not moving possible threat (#26)
Posted by: robert
Posted On 06:40PM 25-Aug-1999 with id (RPWNSVNRQRNSU*)

I have been hearing that dennis could become a
"THREAT" if it doesent move why are they saying that and what kind of threat and where
threat (#27)
Posted by: alan byrd Location: orlando
Posted On 07:02PM 25-Aug-1999 with id (QVYNQSYNQYQNQ*)

The earlier thinking was that the quicker it moved north, the sooner it would interact with a weather system moving into the southeast from the north. That system would have pulled it away from Florida.
That system has already started weakening and if it weakens further, it won't have enough punch to turn Dennis away from Florida. Plus the system is moving differently than the forecasters thought, so the longer Dennis waits, the further away this system becomes.
For Florida, I don't believe it would land any further south than West Palm Beach. Anything south of that and the storm would have to move nearly due west.
If it stays put for a while, it would most likely hit somewhere between Stuart and Daytona, in my opinion. Winds would be between 100 and 120 mph.
Still, it's too early to be sure.
DENNIS IN NO HURRY (#28)
Posted by: Mike Anderson Florida Wx
Posted On 07:12PM 25-Aug-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNTW*)

Looking at the loop DENNIS is in no hurry to start the WNW motion , This has to be a concern to NHC , The trough really looks like it is running out of gas on the southern end and this will cause DENNIS to have the open door i have been looking at, BAMD, BAMM, are getting closer than the last set of run's and i also think that NHC is about to shift the track farther to the left, if the track is not shifted to the left than it is because they are leaning on the trough to pick this up, i would like to say that it is very unfair of them to not let the public living in Florida know that it may not happen and that an impact to the state is possible , they should let people know something in their update or tropical desk , thats it for now but id like to hear from Mike on this about NHC and florida
Dennis (#29)
Posted by: mary
Posted On 07:47PM 25-Aug-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVSNVR*)

I think because of the evacuation routes being so poor. Nobody wants to do anything unless it is absolutely necessary and the minute anything definitive is said, the law suits and incidents start to fly creating more problems than the non hurricane. I am afraid that Erin's lack of damage to the area has spoiled people into thinking that there is nothing that can happen. There is just no telling what could happen I just know that the original predictions are never accurate. I dont know how this one will turn out.
Mike Anderson's ideas (#30)
Posted by: mary Location: LAKELA ND
Posted On 08:05PM 25-Aug-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVSNVR*)

Yhe weather channel just reported Mikes scenario about Florida at the top of the hour. So it is one of the three choices now.
chance of strike forcast (#31)
Posted by: Robert Location: stuart
Posted On 08:28PM 25-Aug-1999 with id (RPWNSVNRQRNSU*)

What are the chances the nhc will change their forcast track tonight or tommorow and where
WILL DENNIS CATCH THE BUS ? (#32)
Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 08:31PM 25-Aug-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNRW*)

Im back and this will be the last post as im heading out again , ill be back later tonight so ill have me forecast at or just before 10:30, but im sure now that the trough getting weaker and looks like the low to the north is moving very fast off to the north east, what does this do , well we should begin to see the Bermuda high start building in this is just what ive been saying for the last 3 days now ,what impact will this have on DENNIS, well it should begin to move him more wnw than w im still thinking it will get far to the north to lesson it's impact on miami , im still thinking STUART however im not ready to landfall this system in florida ,but i do warn im getting very close to that, as if you have all been watching TWC they are now saying that florida should be ready for a possible change, A foot note on DENNIS if it was to impact florida im thinking it will do so as a cat 3 system. Mike Anderson.
Dennis (#33)
Posted by: Steve Hirschberger from Palm Bay
Posted On 09:16PM 25-Aug-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNWT*)

Seems like everyone is getting excited about this storm. But I still don't see any high pressure building over the mid-atlantic to steer dennis further west during the next 36 hours. The trough currently in place (although washing out) and what looks to be a secondary punch of energy approaching north Georgia should be enough to keep the storm well off shore in accordance with the models. I haven't heard what TWC people are saying since I don't have cable. Is there a reliable source or contrary model prognostication that would back up such a statement? Please clue me in, as the storm seems to be drifting to the NW, as previously predicted by the models.
Dennis (#34)
Posted by: Steve Hirschberger from Palm Bay
Posted On 09:17PM 25-Aug-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNWT*)

Seems like everyone is getting excited about this storm. But I still don't see any high pressure building over the mid-atlantic to steer dennis further west during the next 36 hours. The trough currently in place (although washing out) and what looks to be a secondary punch of energy approaching north Georgia should be enough to keep the storm well off shore in accordance with the models. I haven't heard what TWC people are saying since I don't have cable. Is there a reliable source or contrary model prognostication that would back up such a statement? Please clue me in, as the storm seems to be drifting to the NW, as previously predicted by the models.
Movement (#35)
Posted by: Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 09:18PM 25-Aug-1999 with id (RPWNVYNTPNUR*)

As you know from my previous posts, I have been forecasting a northwest and eventually northerly turn. Well, I admit that the trough over the eastern U.S. is not living up to my expectations (or NHC's either) and I am now leaning on a track more west-northwesterly over the next several days, bringing the storm close to central Florida. We should not discount the prospects of a northward turn, however, because it still is a very real possibility and I would not be surprised if it came to pass. Anyway, the west-northwest movement should be very slow as I see nothing in the near term that will instigate any significant forward motion. If the Bermuda High builds in, then a speedier west-northwest motion would initiate in a couple of days. As for strength...the sluggish motion of Dennis will only be for the worse since the storm will have ample time to strengthen over warm waters. The only possible inhibiting factor would be upwelling, but by the time Dennis becomes a formidable storm, he will be on a west-northwest track of some speed.

Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.
The Weather Channel (#36)
Posted by: Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 09:25PM 25-Aug-1999 with id (RPWNVYNTTNTV*)

Yes. The Weather Channel is now recognizing the possibility of Dennis moving near Florida. Yesterday (Tuesday), TWC was very intent on a northward turn, but they have since realized the uncertainty of Dennis and possible steering factors. This does not mean that Dennis is heading toward Florida--it simply exemplifies that uncertainty in the future track has inreased.

Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.
Validation of Dennis uncertainty (#37)
Posted by: Steve Hirschberger
Posted On 09:38PM 25-Aug-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNRQS*)

Thanks for the response Largo; sorry for the double posting. Still seems most likely Dennis will take the northerly turn...will be interesting to see what the next update says.
Dennis TWC 9:50 report (#38)
Posted by: mary Location: lakeland
Posted On 09:58PM 25-Aug-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVSNVR*)

Still forecasting a 72 hour turn to the north taking it away from Florida.(TWC-The Weather Channel)whatever it(hurricane or tropical storm) is in 72 hours. I have seen this hedge too many times in advising people to remain glued to their tv sets from Miami to the Carolinas only to say in 12 hours that it is certain to go to the Carolinas. The only storm that the prediction changed drastically on was Andrew and he blew up to CAt 4 size and changed directions when a trough failed to form that was expected to form and pull Andrew out to sea. So fellow watchers place your bets and wait and see.

Wow. (#39)
Posted by: Mike Cornelius [CFHC] (http://flhurricane.com) Location: New Smyrna Beach, FL
Posted On 10:11PM 25-Aug-1999 with id (RPXNRUQNQQRNQP*)

There is an amazing amount of discussion going on here, and after being gone for nearly 24 hours from the site I'm quite amazed.

All these various tracks I've seen posted here are valid situations. Which one will pan out, or will none of them? I don't know. I'll be making a new update after the new advisories come out.

Thanks everyone.

I apologize for the "flake outs" of the quick storm summary table on the front news page and the "pop-up" advisories. The collision problems encountered with the high site load is a problem I've been working on several different solutions.

-- Mike
My Bet (#40)
Posted by: Joe Location: Orlando/FL
Posted On 10:27PM 25-Aug-1999 with id (QURNQVSNQYUNRPS*)

I have to agree with Mike on this one. Once the NHC issues an expected track, they are notoriously slow to change it unless the change becomes very obvious. Florida is a real possibility, though I think it will be central/northern Florida. The big question is when is this puppy going to start moving? Until then, its almost impossible to predict.
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