Dennis the Menace and Rebirth of Cindy
10:51 PM EDT - 25 August 1999
Cindy has been upgraded to a Hurricane again, but is moving quickly northwest and should not be any problems for the US.
Dennis is Menacing, why? Because it is just sitting there. Stalled out east of the Bahamas making everyone second guess tracks.
Quick update tonight as time is short for me.
There are three schools of thought on Dennis. Unfortunately the least likely of the three now is that it will miss the US East Coast. This still can happen, so we can hope for it.
The other two are about neck and neck, with the NHC's forecast winning albeit slightly now.
The Scenario: 1. The storm starts to move WNW gains strength and then turns more the north and heads toward the SC/NC coasts. It would be a category 2 or 3 storm making landfall in that area. And as of 11PM Tonight the NHC is sticking with this scenario.
#2: The trough does not pick up the system because of the stalling and a high build to the west driving the storm toward us (Florida) as a Category 2 or 3 storm. This scenario is less likely than #1, but still very possible. So no all clears can be sounded tonight.
The fact that Dennis isn't moving much is troubling for forecasting (and the fact that this update is pretty much like yesterday's). The models predicted movement by now and it has not shown up. I'm sure there is good arguments for all three cases, and the models seem to support #2, but they have been doing a poor job with movement so far. The comments and messages on this page really amplify this point.
Therefore everyone in the SE coastal areas should continue the vigil on the storm. NHC still says Carolinas, so you folks should be really watching it, and here in Central Florida don't let your guard down.
My personal pick is #1, but with a lot of hesitation.
Also, Cloud Mass Emily is still hanging around. It may come back, though so the islands should watch it.
For East Central Florida residents and guests looking for more information such as Evacuation Routes and Planning tips see the following pages: [Brevard] [Volusia] [Flagler] [Indian River] [Inland] [News Media]
These have links to the county sites which gives evacuation information and shelter locations.
Also our links page has links to other county EM pages.
For more information on Cindy see the Current Storm Spotlight for Cindy.
For more information on Dennis see the Current Storm Spotlight for Dennis.
For more information on Emily see the Current Storm Spotlight for Emily.
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Weather Channel Caribbean Sat Image
Intellicast Caribbean IR Loop
Intellicast Atlantic IR Loop
More Sat images: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.