CFHC Talkback For News Story #76:
Newest Talkback: 05:02 PM 08-25 EDT

Dennis the Menace and Rebirth of Cindy
10:51 PM EDT - 25 August 1999

Cindy has been upgraded to a Hurricane again, but is moving quickly northwest and should not be any problems for the US.

Dennis is Menacing, why? Because it is just sitting there. Stalled out east of the Bahamas making everyone second guess tracks.

Quick update tonight as time is short for me.
There are three schools of thought on Dennis. Unfortunately the least likely of the three now is that it will miss the US East Coast. This still can happen, so we can hope for it.

The other two are about neck and neck, with the NHC's forecast winning albeit slightly now.

The Scenario: 1. The storm starts to move WNW gains strength and then turns more the north and heads toward the SC/NC coasts. It would be a category 2 or 3 storm making landfall in that area. And as of 11PM Tonight the NHC is sticking with this scenario.

#2: The trough does not pick up the system because of the stalling and a high build to the west driving the storm toward us (Florida) as a Category 2 or 3 storm. This scenario is less likely than #1, but still very possible. So no all clears can be sounded tonight.

The fact that Dennis isn't moving much is troubling for forecasting (and the fact that this update is pretty much like yesterday's). The models predicted movement by now and it has not shown up. I'm sure there is good arguments for all three cases, and the models seem to support #2, but they have been doing a poor job with movement so far. The comments and messages on this page really amplify this point.

Therefore everyone in the SE coastal areas should continue the vigil on the storm. NHC still says Carolinas, so you folks should be really watching it, and here in Central Florida don't let your guard down.

My personal pick is #1, but with a lot of hesitation.

Also, Cloud Mass Emily is still hanging around. It may come back, though so the islands should watch it.

More Tomorrow...

For East Central Florida residents and guests looking for more information such as Evacuation Routes and Planning tips see the following pages:
[Brevard] [Volusia] [Flagler] [Indian River] [Inland] [News Media]
These have links to the county sites which gives evacuation information and shelter locations.

Also our links page has links to other county EM pages.

For more information on Cindy see the Current Storm Spotlight for Cindy.
For more information on Dennis see the Current Storm Spotlight for Dennis.
For more information on Emily see the Current Storm Spotlight for Emily.
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Weather Channel Caribbean Sat Image
Intellicast Caribbean IR Loop
Intellicast Atlantic IR Loop

More Sat images: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #4 (of 4 total)

Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 11:15PM 25-Aug-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNQVX*)

Well it's now in and NHC as i thought is sticking to their gun's, well im not going to hang up on my thoughts as well,Why it,s just not moving fast and that will allow DENNIS his chance to come closer to the florida coast, As far as the trough , well thats another thing that NHC is holding on to , this trough has gotten weaker over the last few hours , RECALL BRET, NHC forecasted this system to head into TAMPICO MX, not it went north into TEXAS , they feel they have time with this one given it's slow motion, And as for the models they all had DENNIS farther and faster than he is right now so throw them forecasrs out the window, the models never forecasted him to sit and spin tonight, Now we have a drift and this is a good thing according to NHC, well if this system is going to be where they have it in 72 i say DENNIS better start hauling, im going to bet that things are going to have a different piture in the morning when we have no bus left to take DENNIS north, Im still holding with my forecast , going for DENNIS to brush the south Florida coast thats it for now Mike Anderson Florida Wx.

Dennis & The Bus (#2)
Posted by:
Mike Cornelius ( Location: New Smyrna Beach, FL
Posted On 11:21PM 25-Aug-1999 with id (RPXNRUQNQQRNQP*)

Mike, the more I look at it the more I am shifting to your thinking.

If the NHC weren't so insistant on "Carolinas" in the advisories I would have switched over. I may do that in the morning if things don't change.

It's about 50/50 for me right now.

Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 11:57PM 25-Aug-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNQVW*)

Going over the loop and it sure looks like DENNIS is starting to sit in place again, im thinking that the stearing currents are still collapsing around this system , shear is also a factor keeping DENNIS in check, this is going to be a long night at NHC so fire up the coffee pot , We should see a new track from NHC in the morning shifting to the left so im going way out and holding to the brush , but still i warn that im getting close to bringing DENNIS on the florida coast as a cat 3, At this time id like to answer the question that i have been asked in other posts as to why inm looking at a brush , well i feel given NHC's track south florida should still get brushed by feeder bands, and if DENNIS reaches cat 2 or 3 im thinking that tropical storm force winds would extend outward to around 150mi, that would not leave much room between the center and the florida coast , thats it Mike Anderson Florida Wx.

Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 12:02AM 26-Aug-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNQVW*)

Well you all know that i forecasted DENNIS to reach Hurricane status tonight , and that had happened, keep an eye on this slow , sitting hurricane two more cats to go and we have the 3, Mike

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