CFHC Talkback For News Story #77:
Newest Talkback: 08:02 PM 08-26 EDT

Dennis now a Hurricane
12:46 AM EDT - 26 August 1999

At 11:45pm only 45 minutes after the 11pm advisory Dennis is now a Hurricane. (See *Tropical Storm Special Update) Still not moving. All feel free to comment on your prediction on the track Dennis will take.

For East Central Florida residents and guests looking for more information such as Evacuation Routes and Planning tips see the following pages: [Brevard] [Volusia] [Flagler] [Indian River] [Inland] [News Media]
These have links to the county sites which gives evacuation information and shelter locations.

Also our links page has links to other county EM pages.

For more information on Cindy see the Current Storm Spotlight for Cindy.
For more information on Dennis see the Current Storm Spotlight for Dennis.
For more information on Emily see the Current Storm Spotlight for Emily.
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Weather Channel Caribbean Sat Image
Intellicast Caribbean IR Loop
Intellicast Atlantic IR Loop

More Sat images: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.


- [jc]

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Displaying Talkbacks #9 - #16 (of 29 total)
Dennis (#9)
Posted by: Andy Location: Massachusetts
Posted On 09:53AM 26-Aug-1999 with id (RQVNQVTNRTXNRPU*)

One thing that seems to be underemphasized here is that Dennis has been and continues to be greatly sheared by west to northwest upper winds. This has not been anticipated (or initialized?) by the models at all. Where is this model error coming from? What effect does this have on Dennis' steering? Why are we sure it's going to lessen? Thanks....
-Andy
Models and movement (#10)
Posted by: Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 09:58AM 26-Aug-1999 with id (RPYNXVNQPNV*)

Looking at the situation with Dennis this morning, the trough over the eastern U.S. still may have enough punch to pull Dennis northward, but, then again, Dennis may move slow enough to continue west-northwesterly. I would have to place the chances of a Florida brush/strike and a northward turn both at 50%. Satellite imagery looks scary, though, as Dennis seems to be steadily moving west-northwest with no signs yet of a northwest curve. I don't like how the NHC is wording the threat in their public advisories. They are telling residents of primarily the Carolinas to watch out, but any storm of this proximity to the Florida coast should warrant more concern that I have seen. Since unsuspected wind sheer is affecting Dennis presently, I don't foresee him gaining more than Category 2 status IF he moves toward Florida.

Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.
TPC may have errored (#11)
Posted by: Bram Location: Hollywood Beach, Florida
Posted On 10:08AM 26-Aug-1999 with id (QSWNURNQYXNYW*)

I have monitored this storm, like others since I was slammed by Andrew 7 yrs. ago from the other day. Dennis appears to be struggling to intensify because of the Northwesterly winds aloft sheering off its' higher cloud tops. However, if this trough in the east does not dig deep today, and lifts back up to the north prior to Dennis's expected NWerly movement, I believe a strong High Pressure (Bermuda High) could build in the Atlantic pushing Dennis not only Westerly, rather than Northerly, but if it builds in strong enough, it could certainly cause the storm to slightly wobble southerly, vs. WNWerly.??
dennis strength (#12)
Posted by: alan byrd
Posted On 10:09AM 26-Aug-1999 with id (RPVNRVNRTYNTQ*)

Category 2 seems a little weak for my tastes. The shearing is happening now. If it persists, then yes it would have a hard time strengthening.
But you have to look at the warm waters in the Bahamas. They say it is warmer there than ever before. That will make the storm grow. I think once the storm leaves the shear zone — and that zone is not too strong right now — the storm will boom. Look at what happened with Andrew. When it hit the Bahamas and the gulf stream, it blew up. I see a similar pattern happening with Dennis, maybe even a greater growth pattern. It won't come close to Andrew's strength because it has a lower starting point.
Dennis WILL turn (#13)
Posted by: Alex Shevrovich Location: Palm Bay, FL
Posted On 11:47AM 26-Aug-1999 with id (QSRNQWPNRPSNSU*)

My thinking has NOT changed from yesterday. It will get kicked up north before any direct brush with Florida happens. I'm 75% sure of this.

Mike is going by the BAMM which I don't particulary trust in the situation. I'm going for the turn to the north.

Again if my thinking changes on it, I will post here ASAP.

Alex in Palm Bay
where is everyone? (#14)
Posted by: alan byrd
Posted On 03:09PM 26-Aug-1999 with id (RPVNRVNRTYNTQ*)

It's been more than three hours since the last posting. Where is everyone?
Big question: Is the slowdown since the 11 am advisory the turn or just another bad sign for florida?
little question: doesn't the water vapor images look like the trough has sunk further south?
Dennis (#15)
Posted by: Colleen Atwater Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:16PM 26-Aug-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNUX*)

I am hoping that the slow down means a turn to the northwest ...doesn't it usually slow down when it turns? Anyway, I am more hopeful now than I have been in the last few days that it will turn. I haven't looked at the WV images but I am going to go check it out. Keep hoping Florida!!!
The trough and Dennis (#16)
Posted by: Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 04:27PM 26-Aug-1999 with id (RPWNVYNRUTNQSQ*)

Well, after analyzing the situation this afternoon, I will shift back to my earlier forecast of Dennis taking a northerly turn and sparing Florida. Infrared satellite imagery shows an elongation and flattening of the western quadrant of convection. This occurrence indicates that Dennis is being influenced by westerly wind shear from the trough over the southeast U.S. Since Dennis is in an area of very weak steering currents, any possible steering entity, regardless of strength, will be enough of a factor to move Dennis in the resulting direction. The weak entity in Dennis's case is the trough over the eastern U.S. As for strength...the wind shear mentioned earlier will likely keep Dennis at minimal Category 1 strength for a while to come. I doubt that Dennis will intensify at the rate that NHC is forecasting.

As a final note...it appears doubtful to me that Dennis will directly impact Florida. I really don't see any reason why Dennis will escape the effects of the trough; however, I urge Floridians to stay on guard. The only possible way that I see Dennis directly affecting Florida is if the storm weakens and thus does not become influenced by the trough as much.

Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.
Dennis Stalled Again! (#17)
Posted by: Jeanine Sanders Location: Hollywood, FL
Posted On 05:09PM 26-Aug-1999 with id (VSNQSNTNQUR*)

I've been away all day and had no idea what was going on only to come home and read everyone's comments and then see the 5pm advisory, he's stalled again. Waiting to hear new thoughts on this storm. One TV weather Channel here saying we are out of the woods!
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