CFHC Talkback For News Story #78:
Newest Talkback: 09:12 PM 08-26 EDT

Just Move Already, Dennis...
11:06 PM EDT - 26 August 1999

The forecast track is shifting west. According to the Hurricane Center, people from Georgia through the Carolina's must be on guard. What does this mean for Florida? A very close brush with Dennis is possible. On the other hand, it isn't gaining strength right now, so it probably will remain a category 1 or 2 hurricane.

Dennis, however, is still not moving much. Very maddening to everyone tracking, I know. But the latest GFDL model run do move it quite a bit west of its last run.

Folks along Florida must continue vigil on the system.

Because not much has changed in foward movement, and the fact that Dennis was looking sick earlier, there just isn't much more to add than what was being said in the previous days. Feel free to comment, also feel free to prepare. Dennis' future track is one of the more difficult ones to tack down, so don't let yourself think any possibilty is out of the question. A good rule of thumb is (from past history), when it gets due EAST of Cape Canaveral (or Daytona Beach, FL) it will pass us by to the north. That assumes it continues to move in a northerly direction. Until that happens, do not put your guard down.

For East Central Florida residents and guests looking for more information such as Evacuation Routes and Planning tips see the following pages: [Brevard] [Volusia] [Flagler] [Indian River] [Inland] [News Media]
These have links to the county sites which gives evacuation information and shelter locations.

Also our links page has links to other county EM pages.

For more information on Cindy see the Current Storm Spotlight for Cindy.
For more information on Dennis see the Current Storm Spotlight for Dennis.
For more information on Emily see the Current Storm Spotlight for Emily.
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Weather Channel Caribbean Sat Image
Intellicast Caribbean IR Loop
Intellicast Atlantic IR Loop

More Sat images: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.


- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #6 (of 6 total)
GOODBUY TROUGH HAVE A LONLEY RIDE (#1)
Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 11:25PM 26-Aug-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNQXR*)

Well it looks more like what i have been forecasting over the past 3 day's now and im still going with my forecast on DENNIS now makeing more of a threat to south florida, GFDL
LOST THE REST OF MY POSTING (#2)
Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 11:33PM 26-Aug-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNQXR*)

I was saying that now that the trough has broken down , DENNIS will now if not brush it will impact the florida coast as a possible cat2,3storm, i have been forecasting this for 3 days now and tonight GFDL,BAMM,BAMD are now supporting my forecast, as i said it will be interesting to see if the people in this roonm will go for the forecast as they have been all day with NHC and GFDL, now that the models have shifted west, GFDL is forecasting a cat 4 storm , a bit over done you say , well remember it was forecasting the north track you all have been holding on to , so im woundering if you will drop the model now like a bad habbit or stick to you guns i have all day with mine, Mike Anderson Florida WX
GFDL Model (#3)
Posted by: Dixie Bean Location: PSJ, Florida
Posted On 11:33PM 26-Aug-1999 with id (VSNQQNTWNQUS*)

Mike, how & where are you viewing this GFDL Model? Dixie Bean
WHERE??????????? (#4)
Posted by: JAMIE ORGERON Location: LAFITTE,LA
Posted On 11:47PM 26-Aug-1999 with id (RPYNRQTNQTTNRX*)

MIKE WHERE IN FLORIDA DO YOU THINK IT WILL BRUSH OR MAKE LANDFALL? AND WHEN DO YOU THINK THE NHC WILL CHANGE THIER FORCAST? AND WILL THEY GIVE FLORIDA ENOUGH TIME TO GET READY? WHEN DO YOU THINK IT WILL GET THERE IF IT EVER STARTS MOVING AGAIN? I KNOW LOTS OF QUESTIONS........
DENNIS AND MICKEY (#5)
Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 12:03AM 27-Aug-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNQXR*)

i have not been posting a time but i will go on now and do that , my thinking is that from WEST PALM the brush should begin, the center should than stay off the coast and im thinking about 30 miles as the center of DENNIS moves along the florida coast in a NW motion, it should move into SAVANNAH as the forecast moves on in time, this track would keep the east side of florida on the western side of a growing storm, Hurricane force winds could be felt along the florida coast as the system moves north west along the coast very slow, Imthinking the time we should start to see this come into play some time on saturday night but ill have a better handel on this later tonight or by morning, thats it for now Mike Anderson Florida WX.
models and track (#6)
Posted by: ed Location: ft myers,fl
Posted On 12:12AM 27-Aug-1999 with id (RPXNQVXNRPYNQRX*)

mike ,
Just curious,how reliable is the GFDL,BAMM,BAMD and do these models show a wnw or w motion?
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