CFHC Talkback For News Story #81:
Newest Talkback: 04:57 PM 09-05 EDT

Ernesto and Shear
09:50 AM EDT - 03 September 2000

What originally made me go with the prediction of no named storms this weekend was the fact that shear was still pretty bad in the area that Ernesto was trying to form. It managed to anyway, but since then has been barely holding on. It's a definite fish spinner system as it heads toward that direction.

More interesting to me is the system in the Central East Atlantic that could form sometime this week. We'll wait and see.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #5 (of 26 total)

Rainmaker (#1)
Posted by: Mr Jimmy Location: Houma LA
Posted On 11:08AM 03-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRQTNQUUNRPQ*)

Ernesto is not really on my mind at the moment, but the little cluster of storms below the panhandle and the mouth of the Miss. river has been getting the attention of TWC this morning. We could use a good rainmaker over here since my rain gauge is currently a lovebug condo. I need to check the buoys out there and see how the winds are. Currently, the Gulf is a nice, hot lake with a need to get rid of come of the heat. I know this little system is not glamorous, but it's proximate to us over here. I enjoy your website and visited it for the first time during the "imperfect storm" Debby. Someone out there help find us some rain.

Depression Ernesto (#2)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 04:40PM 03-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

At 5pm Sunday, expected to dissipate within 24 hrs.



gulf (#3)
Posted by: mark Location: new orleans
Posted On 04:44PM 03-Sep-2000 with id (SXNSQNQTYNQ*)

has anyone seen the latest sat. pics of the gulf? it looks like there is rotation around 26/88.

Correction (#4)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 04:58PM 03-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

I was going by the Navy info in my previous post. Ernesto is already dissipated. Looks like TD 9 forming to the SW of him..or in the Gulf? There does appear to be a developing circulation near the location near 27/88 or so. moving, ese or se it appears.

And the mid level circulation n of Hispaniola sees to be trying to come to the surface. maybe the Ernesto energy will give it a boost?



Confirmation (#5)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 05:59PM 03-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNWX*)

As I (and some of the NHC staff probably) expected, Ernesto dissipated within 72 hours of its first advisory. Forecasting is hardly my forte; that I got it right says more about how persistent this pattern of trofiness has been than about any skill of mine, I admit.

I think attention should be turned to the Gulf...the mid-Atlantic wave looks to run into the same conditions that destroyed Ernesto before long. That, or make lanfall in South America.

Yup (#6)
Posted by:
Darcy Location: Ontario, Canada
Posted On 06:50PM 03-Sep-2000 with id (RPXNVNWWNQVR*)

I think JJ's right, since shear destroyed Chris, Debby, and Ernesto. Is that going to change some time soon?
The system in The Central-East Atlantic looks so elongated. I've never heard of a Cyclone going into South America before, but looks like it could. Could it pass over the Antillies and move west south of Jamaica; and get in the gulf in the long run?
The system in the gulf seems very circular but weak.


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