CFHC Talkback For News Story #85:
Newest Talkback: 02:34 AM 08-30 EDT

Watches/Warnings Dropped for Florida Dennis has Missed
07:19 AM EDT - 29 August 1999

Good news this morning, Dennis is well away, and other than a brief heavy rain squall line that just woke me up, the storm is moving away. Barring something crazy, Florida has seen the last of Dennis.

Missing yet another storm. The future track of Dennis now has some good news for the SC/NC folk. Many models suggest it only brushing the coast and not making landfall, although, once again, I wouldn't let my guard down if I was up there as there still is a good chance that it will occur.

It's been a very interesting set of days for us in Florida, but it seems to be passed for now. We have yet to reach the peak date for Hurricane Season, so we are not necessarily done for the season.

Tropical storm Emily was eaten up by Cindy yesterday and is no longer around. Cindy is moving out to sea and won't be any trouble, and elsewhere there is nothing at the moment.

For more information on Cindy see the
Current Storm Spotlight for Cindy.
For more information on Dennis see the Current Storm Spotlight for Dennis.
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Weather Channel Caribbean Sat Image
Intellicast Caribbean IR Loop
Intellicast Atlantic IR Loop

More Sat images: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #15 (of 15 total)

Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 11:05AM 29-Aug-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNTW*)

Good morning i thought i would post on DENNIS, it seems that DENNIS is really not sure just what he wanst to do again today, so we are faced with the same old thing, will he brush SC NC only time well tell, im going for the turn to the NE as a strong trough is heading down from canada, as for my forecast on DENNIS with florida i really dont think it was to bad, i had expected the system to cross to the north of FREEPORT , and that would have been close for the brush that i was forecasting, i stuck to my forecast when others had the 1st trough picking him up, well again im happy it did not impact the sunshine state, now we need to get it out of SC NC ,and in time today i think we will see that ,and that will be the best thing for all im sure, I want to leave you all on this not, another area of deep convection over cuba from 22N to 78 W needs to be watched , thats it for now ill be back to post on DENNIS again Mike Anderson Florida WX.

Time to start looking for Floyd, Gert, and Harvey (#2)
Posted by: na
Posted On 04:46PM 29-Aug-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVRNXY*)

I just checked the weather channel on the winds around Kingston JAmaica and the winds at 4:15 are 24 mph. That is about 6 off from tropical depression strenght I believe and they have declared depressions at 25 before I believe, when they thought they were going to develop for sure.
I am also seeing the NOGAP showing a feature dropping into the gulf later in the week but I am not sure about the significance of it in tropical weather terms, you wiser ones can comment on that, if any. Then those whirling waves between Africa and the mid atlantic look like they could be trouble later on. I am beginning to believe that Dr. Gray's predictions on Major storms were a bit conservative this year in number, whether the actual total number of named storms make the line up or not. JMHO

New Wave off Africa (#3)
Posted by: Charles
Posted On 04:47PM 29-Aug-1999 with id (SXNSPNQVWNQSS*)

Has anyone taken a look at the new wave off Africa, on the NHC Meteosat Infa-red from this morning?
The wave is well developed, even seems to have an eye-like feature (after Emily, seems something could sneak up on NHC). However, this is a much larger wave with a good circulation. Thoughts?

Oops I hit the wrong field a while ago. (#4)
Posted by:
Posted On 04:49PM 29-Aug-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVRNXY*)

I am Mary from Lakeland and wrote the comment number 2 about the three stooges Floyd Gert and Harvey.

New Wave- addl info (#5)
Posted by: Charles
Posted On 04:50PM 29-Aug-1999 with id (SXNSPNQVWNQSS*)

It is the 1500 Z Meteosat. What impresses me besides the wave's structure is that this has developed SINCE the wave left the was not there yesterday.

Disturbance in the Central Carib also bears watching.

Caribbean (#6)
Posted by: Aubiecane
Posted On 04:56PM 29-Aug-1999 with id (QURNQVSNQYUNRPW*)

We really need to watch the caribbean, this could eb the next Floyd.


Wave in East Atlantic (#7)
Posted by: Steve Hirschberger Location: Palm Bay FL
Posted On 05:20PM 29-Aug-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNTY*)

The wave that came off Africa early this morning is impressive and on the last Meteostat shot shows a decent circulation. We'll have to see if it holds together..,it's currently riding over the Cape Verde islands..further north than most waves so far. Also a low in the Central Atlantic, albeit weak, has a bunch of convection associated with it. I'll have to take a look at the Carribean...this morning it looked like convection was rotating west around a mid-level high pressure area with no organization. But things look like they're starting to brew again. As for Dennis, let's all lean rijght so we can pull him NE tonight.

Thanks All! (#8)
Posted by: Joe Parra Location: Orlando/FL
Posted On 06:23PM 29-Aug-1999 with id (TNQTNXUNWQ*)

Just wanted to thank John and Michael Cornelius as well as Mike Anderson. I know a lot of time and effort is expended keeping the rest of us well informed.

As for Dennis, someone at work theorized that if we could set up enough electric fans across the coastline, we might be able to push the storms away. Since Dennis is sliding along the coast, maybe this idea would help the Carolinas. It would be a pretty big electric bill, though. :)

Anyways, thanks again and keep up the good work!

Models on Caribbean (#9)
Posted by: Aubiecane
Posted On 06:29PM 29-Aug-1999 with id (QURNQVSNQYUNRPY*)

Models indicate that the wave south of Cuba will form and threaten the northern gulf coast late this week. I am in Pensacola, FL so I will for sure be watching it like glue.


Thanks Joe (#10)
Posted by:
John Cornelius [CFHC} ( Location: Cocoa, FL
Posted On 06:43PM 29-Aug-1999 with id (RPTNRQUNRRYNUT*)

Thank you Joe, We are always working to improve!


Model addresses please. (#11)
Posted by: mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 06:58PM 29-Aug-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVRNVQ*)

I have the nogaps models and the unysis mrf but they are difficult to interpret. Does anyone have any other addresses for models that are more readable for the lay-person? I am only able to take what I know and try to compare the changes on the nogaps like looking at Dennis and compare it to a disturbance etc. So any other addresses would be appreciated.

Models (#12)
Posted by: Salinity
Posted On 08:36PM 29-Aug-1999 with id (RPWNSVNRQRNXY*)

I have been wondering where evryone gets the forcast models for the central for the tropical atlantic

Florida Probabilities?! (#13)
Posted by: Bill Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 09:48PM 29-Aug-1999 with id (SXNSPNQVWNQQW*)

I was intrigued to note on the 5pm probabilities that all of the sudden Florida is on again. I was really intrigued that there are probabilites as far south as the Keys, and up the west coast, related to Dennis.

What gives? Is there a screwy model or two? I had heard there was one then other day that brought the storm back to Fl after a big loop? (in 7 days!)

If someone can shed some light, I'd appreciate it!



BACK TO FLORIDA???????? (#14)
Posted by:
Posted On 12:43AM 30-Aug-1999 with id (RPYNRQTNQTWNSS*)


360 turn? (#15)
Posted by: Aubiecane
Posted On 09:34AM 30-Aug-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNSQ*)

Remember Betsy in 65'

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