CFHC Talkback For News Story #90:
Newest Talkback: 04:11 PM 09-12 EDT

Florence Nearly Hurricane and Western Caribbean
01:50 PM EDT - 12 September 2000

Today's big stories are the wave in the western Caribbean which could rapidly develop over the next few days (Probably more of a threat than Florence). However, Florence itself is looking very well and is for all practical purposes, a hurricane. Officially still a Tropical Storm, but its characteristics make it a sure bet to be upgraded later today.

Needless to say, Florence is still stagnating and moving very little. All indications say that it will move out to sea eventually. We'll still watch it.

Focus should be shifting toward the Western Caribbean, as the disturbance there has a very good chance to be upgraded today. It will eventually impact land, so I consider it more of a threat. Aircraft Recon is going out there to check and see if a definite circulation exists. If one exists now, it will form today. If not, it within the next two days.
Development Chances for this wave today:

(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)

Florence and More

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #9 (of 9 total)

TD#11? (#1)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 02:17PM 12-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWWNQXPNVT*)

Hello All,
This area of deep convection in the western Carribean does look impressive but I don't see any circulation center on satellite. Recon flight is just entering the area so until there report comes back all I see is a active wave that could be a TD in time. I agree it does look impressive but we have seen this before and until information is received from the recon flight I will hold back any forcasts. Off the record I believe we may have a depression in a day or so.

Caribbean Dev (#2)
Posted by:
Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 02:48PM 12-Sep-2000 with id (QRNQSNRTXNS*)

My observations looking at the latest IR and VIS sat loops, system moving between WNW and NW, with a slight suggestion of some rotation, good out flow in all quadrants.... I think it's close to depression right now... just my unofficial SWAG But the way this season has been going who knows!!!

Agree, Frank (#3)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 02:53PM 12-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQXX*)

I agree is showing some banding in the latest visible image and the outflow looks pretty good. Recon is not scheduled to be there now until about 4pm or later; so, if they get there in time, then this thing *could* be classified as a TD if the pressures are low enough. I will also be interested in seeing the latest forecast dicussions from NWS in Florida. Till then, Colleen!!!

florence,,td in west Carb??? (#4)
Posted by: scottsvb (
Posted On 03:25PM 12-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRSNQXUNUQ*)

I agree with mark that they might not find a well definded circulation,,but i feel it will be tomorrow or even a TS down in the w carribean.

The path should take it close to Cancun,,and into the gulf by late in the week. Then all odds are off as he may then move NE across florida or underneath the trough coming down and head W towards S Texas.Let see if it forms first as the models arn't showing much yet.
This same trough is the system that will pull hurricane florence out to sea farther..but close to Bermuda to give them Hurricane or TS watches.


avn (#5)
Posted by:
alan Location: orlando
Posted On 03:37PM 12-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)

Did anyone notice that the AVN doesn't show the western carb. developing, but makes the wave east of the windward islands into a hurricane over the next three days, with it staying north of the islands?

95L (#6)
Posted by: Gary Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 03:57PM 12-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNTNTPNSY*)

NRL just added 95L our mass of storms to the south. Looks ominous

Rainfall w/Tropical Wave (#7)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:01PM 12-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNRY*)

This is interesting...if it turns into nothing else but a rain maker:




----------- ------------ ------ ------- -------

12/1815 UTC 17.5N 80.0W 090/10 2.3 IN 11.3 IN



------------- --------------- ---------------

0 TO 1 DEGREE 3.6 TO 7.4 IN 4.0 TO 9.4 IN

1 TO 2 DEGREE 0.4 TO 6.8 IN 4.8 TO 11.3 IN

2 TO 3 DEGREE 0.0 TO 5.1 IN 1.7 TO 5.9 IN

3 TO 4 DEGREE 0.0 TO 0.0 IN 0.0 TO 1.7 IN

movement (#8)
Posted by:
alan Location: orlando
Posted On 04:07PM 12-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)

Interesting post. Where's it from? One of the stranger items is the movement. It says 090/10. I believe that means due east at 10 mph. Correct me if I am wrong.

Rainfall Site (#9)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:11PM 12-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNRY*)

I found it on the FSU School of Meteorology Site, under archives/hurr.

Could someone please pinpoint where they think the center of this broad area of low pressure is

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