CFHC Talkback For News Story #93:
Newest Talkback: 04:02 PM 09-07 EDT

TD#7 to Move into Mexico and Other Systems
09:02 AM EDT - 06 September 1999

Quick note, what's left of Dennis is still dumping rain over North Carolina. I once lived in Raleigh, so I can imagine how that amount of rain can flood certain areas.

TD#7 is NOT acting like Bret, and is much closer to the Mexican coast that Bret was. It most likely will go fully inland (it's almost at that point now) later today over Mexico without strengthening all that much.

In the rest of the Atlantic, there is a wave in the Central Atlantic that still bears watching, and a smaller wave near to the Lesser Antilles that also has flared up this morning.

We will be watching. For more information on TD#7 see the
Current Storm Spotlight for TD#7.
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Weather Channel Caribbean Sat Image
Intellicast Caribbean IR Loop
Intellicast Atlantic IR Loop

More Sat images: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #30 (of 30 total)

Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 11:14AM 06-Sep-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPQNQWV*)

Good afternoon TD#7 has vanished inland as i expected, Now all eye's need to be watching the ATLANTIC as i still expect a DEPRESSION to develop later in the day or by tomorrow, this system again could be a big player later in the week, as the tropical ridge is starting to build in the Atlantic, this ridge could send this system very far west before it ever curves to the north, ill have much more on this system later today, Mike Anderson Florida wx.

Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 12:02PM 06-Sep-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPQNQWV*)

an area of convection is developing in the NE gulf, this area is showing sign's of organization, this system is moving south east, information is very limited on this feature, However i would not be shocked if a depression is also forming in this area,or trying to.Residents along the westtern florida coast should keep in tune to the latest forecasts on this developing feature, some models hint at this system moving south and east, if this system develops it would move across the state and out in to the Atlantic, Again please keep an eye on this system, Mike Anderson florida wx.

System in the NE Gulf (#3)
Posted by: Colleen Atwater Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 12:49PM 06-Sep-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNUS*)

I was just going to post on that system in the NE Gulf of Mexico. It looks pretty well organized and I was going to ask Mike to comment on it, but he beat me to the punch. I think we should really keep on eye on that one as the water is extremely warmt this time of year. Being that we are located near the west coast of Florida, it should be very interesting to watch whether it develops into anything or not.

Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 01:09PM 06-Sep-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPQNQWV*)

I have been going over information , and have come up with a ship reporting a sustained at 35, also strong convection is firing up close to what i think is some kind of a center, water spouts have been reported in the area, sugesting that a deep feature is out in the area, im not ready to go all out on this but i do think something tropical is getting it's act together in the area, again i would not be shocked to find a Depression developing, have not found any big pressure drops as of yet but im still looking, ill be on all day , as far as i can tell the system is heading S.E. very slow, again residents along the west florida coast should keep an eye on this system, as time would be a factor if tropical development did come in to play, Mike Anderson florida WX.

NE Gulf? (#5)
Posted by: David Conner
Posted On 01:51PM 06-Sep-1999 with id (VSNRQNWSNRRR*)

What makes you think that this has a chance to develop? I see it as a flareup that will die down tomorrow. But who knows.

Thanks for the commentary, though!

RE David Connor (#6)
Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 02:00PM 06-Sep-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPQNQWV*)

Well David, what makes me think it could develop, well let's see, 1 the water temps are running high in that area, 2 We just might be in the hart of hurricane season 3 the system is showing some kind of circulation,4 The same thing that has made me think on all the systems this year, in case you have not read my postings all year, 5 im not just a simple person posting at this site,6 if it does develop ill be waiting to hear where you think ot will go and how big it will be. Mike FL WX.

NE Gulf (#7)
Posted by: David Conner
Posted On 02:04PM 06-Sep-1999 with id (VSNRQNWSNRRR*)

Well I do have to admit it looks like it could happen (just watched the Weather Channel) and you have a list of very good reasons to go along with it, but I'm optimistic in hoping that nothing will come of it. I'm on the west coast of Florida. I'll be watching it though.

If something does manage to get its act together how much development could happen before any type of landfall? I don't need a storm over here!



NE Gulf Disturbance (#8)
Posted by:
Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 02:22PM 06-Sep-1999 with id (RPWNVYNTUNTY*)

The convective cluster in the northeast Gulf of Mexico is simply a weak upper level disturbance. In my opinion, the disturbance will weaken considerably by tomorrow and fail to develop. This thunderstorm cluster is nothing more than a typical eruption of storms over the Gulf of Mexico in response to an upper level feature. As usual, waterspouts often accompany thunderstorms over the warm Gulf of Mexico so I don't think that we can use this as evidence of a developing tropical feature. The disturbance is also moving south at a fairly swift pace. As a result, the system will not have time to remain over water for the length necessary for the transformation of upper level to tropical.

God Bless You,
Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.

Lakeland Monster (#9)
Posted by: mary
Posted On 02:32PM 06-Sep-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVRNQYQ*)

The urban Lakeland monster will not allow anything tropical to come to the west coast. Look at all the near misses we have had over the last 60 years. It is an interesting feature though and before I came here to check this afternoon I commented to my husband that the weather looked like we had tropical squall lines in the area. I thought it might be stuff off of the other two systems paying a visit. I had not turned on the weather channel or this page til now. I am glad my powers of observation are getting better.

NE Gulf (#10)
Posted by: Colleen Atwater Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 02:35PM 06-Sep-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNTX*)

You guys all need to chill out. Mike, no offense, but not everyone posts here everyday and I don't think you should have been so hard on David. It is true that we see alot of storms like this one in the Gulf, but all the reasons you listed are very valid ones of why we should be watching it very closely. As far as this system goes, I don't think it's moving all that rapidly to the South. I know the other system ahead of it has been plaguing West Central Florida for the last 8 or so hours and that I haven't really seen the other one move. By the way, why don't you tell them what you do for a living Mike, instead of saying you're not a "simple person" the rest of us.

The simple person (#11)
Posted by: Richards
Posted On 02:58PM 06-Sep-1999 with id (RTNYUNRTSNUW*)

I requested last week that Mike Anderson post some of his qualifications. I have yet to see anything in this regard. Who/where is Florida Wx?

We'll be waiting.....

Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 03:12PM 06-Sep-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNSW*)

You can IM me anytime you see me omn line , and i will be happy to let you know what my qualifications are.As for this system in the GULF all i wanted was to make you all awear of it, Never forecasted any tropical development , but said it could happen ,Mike A.

Simple... (#13)
Posted by: David Conner
Posted On 03:50PM 06-Sep-1999 with id (VSNRQNWSNRRR*)

I think Mike has an AOL account (of which I do not have anymore) and his screen name is "Florida WX".

It would be interesting to find out his qualifications, I do agree.

Posted by: JAMIE Location: LAFITTE,LA
Posted On 03:59PM 06-Sep-1999 with id (RPYNRQTNQTWNRPS*)


Mike Anderson (#15)
Posted by: Veronica smith Location: miami Florida
Posted On 04:58PM 06-Sep-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNSY*)

I have been reading everything that you people have been putting on this page since the hurricane season began,As far as im concerned mike has been right on the money,and to answer some questions about him , well my husband and i know mike and his family well, mike is a real family man and he really cares about people, i can say he is as far a people person as you will ever find in today's crazy world. However i dont quite know why he has not told you all who he is and what he is , but i can assure you he is really involved in meteoroligy, anyway i hope this helps.

Mike, His Qualifications & The Gulf (#16)
Posted by:
Colleen Atwater Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 06:01PM 06-Sep-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNXT*)

Look, I did not mean to start a firestorm on Mike. My comments were meant in this way: #1) this is NOT an official website for the NHC, it meant to be used by EVERYBODY, even the simple man/woman who wants to share their thoughts about the tropics; #2) I don't think it does serves Mike rude and disrespectful to the others who do post on this website. Mike, you may say you are not, but, you keep dwelling on what you have posted here before and although they do have an archive here, don't depend on people to look. Just try to be more lenient towards us simple folk that are trying to learn and navigate our way towards LEARNING.
I have talked to Mike on several occasions via IM and he does have very good qualifications for his postings. He is actually very good at what he does and I trust him. Just lighten up a little Mike. Maybe it's not in your personality, but I don't believe that...people are just interested, not everyone is a pro.

mesoscales and shortwaves (#17)
Posted by:
mary Location: t
Posted On 07:42PM 06-Sep-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVRNRSU*)

The 2:30 pm report for the west coast region spoke of the convective areas in the NE Gulf as being interacting shortwaves. The prediction is for them to hang out through Wednesday in one form or another . I dont know enough to know whether or not this could form tropical depressions or not. But there was no place in the report that alluded to anything more significant than rain. Can any one else elaborate?

WHERE THE HELL IS EVERYONE zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz's (#18)
Posted by:
??????????????? (http://????????????????????) Location: ????????????????????????//
Posted On 07:42PM 06-Sep-1999 with id (QYYNRRWNQWSNRSR*)



Who is Mike Anderson? (#19)
Posted by: Terry Location: Orlando
Posted On 08:20PM 06-Sep-1999 with id (RPXNQTNTQNT*)

You can find Mike Anderson on AOL under the screen name and email florida wx /

Central Atlantic Wave (#20)
Posted by: Steve Hirschberger Location: Palm Bay FL
Posted On 09:38PM 06-Sep-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNTX*)

Since I'm new at posting comments on this site, I figure I'll stay clear of the flying rocks. Since they have settled, It seems that the tropical wave in the Central Atlantic in gaining steam, and is looking like it should be a storm by tomorrow if it doesn't encounter any shear. The area of convection seems to have centralized and it looks like rotation and outflow are beginning to form. This system seems to have the potential for a major atlantic storm, most of the ingredients are there. Keep your eyes to the southeast.

Any help (#21)
Posted by: Billy boy blue
Posted On 11:54PM 06-Sep-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNRX*)

I was woundering if we might ge any hurricanes soon, i really dont understand the whole thing but was just woundering, would appreciate any help.

Hurricanes (#22)
Posted by: mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 06:26AM 07-Sep-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVRNVS*)

The potential is always there. I even think the superstorm of 93 that hit Central Florida was a hurricane that slipped in on us really fast.

Superstorm of '93 (#23)
Posted by:
Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 08:34AM 07-Sep-1999 with id (RPWNVYNTTNQYY*)

Actually, the Superstorm of '93 was a violent squall line in association with a major upper level disturbance. I remember it very well as I was camping outdoors near Ft. Meade for a church function at the time. We had to evacuate to a gymnasium. I estimated the winds to be 50-60 MPH sustained with some slightly higher gusts where I was located. Most damage in the area was minor with some down trees and power lines and typical moderate tropical storm damage. I remember the next day was very cold with temperatures in the 30's. The winds were very gusty as well and we barely made it across the Gandy bridge to get back to Pinellas County before it closed. Tampa had the worst damage with considerable roof damage and water levels intruding on people's homes.

Enough about the Superstorm of '93. The tropical wave in the Central Atlantic Ocean looks very impressive and it appears well on its way to becoming Floyd. It may impact the Leeward Islands due to an expected westward heading for several days to come. This could be the next major hurricane.

God Bless You,
Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.

TD #8 SOON (#24)
Posted by: SirCane
Posted On 12:50PM 07-Sep-1999 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNQXW*)

This wave has a rotation and good convection, I would be surprised if we dont see TD #8 by tonight.


Floyd (#25)
Posted by:
Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 01:20PM 07-Sep-1999 with id (RPWNVYNTPNYR*)

Indeed. The tropical wave 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles looks impressive on satellite imagery this afternoon. I surmise that this wave will become Tropical Depression Eight by 5 PM EST this afternoon. Convection is organizing near the circulation center and I see nothing that will impede development in the near term. Furthermore, this system should be christened Floyd rather shortly as well.

Regarding future movement: I think that "Floyd" will have a shot at impacting some location along the U.S. east coast progressing into next week. We will again be challenged with forecasting whether the cyclone will turn northward or approach the coast. The future movement is simply dependent on the strength and position of the trough moving off the U.S. east coast and the position in latitude of the storm. At present, I say that the chances favor a more northerly track over time; however, this is purely conjecture so early in the forecast period.

God Bless You,
Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.

TD #8 Has Formed! (#26)
Posted by: SirCane
Posted On 05:29PM 07-Sep-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPVNQWV*)

I knew it. IT is supposed to become a 85kt Hurricane in 72 hours and continue W and WNW

Soon to be Floyd (#27)
Posted by: Steve Hirschberger Location: Palm Bay FL
Posted On 05:36PM 07-Sep-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPQNVY*)

TD #8 has formed and we need to watch this one . The TPC has this system with a West motion with a slight north component, putting it near the NE Leeward islands in 72 hours as a 75-knot rapidly intensifying hurricane. Anticyclonic is forecast to stay north of the system, keeping it on a westward track and providing a good environment for intensification. Will be interesting to see how this plays out as it moves to the north of Puerto Rico. A trough is forecast to dig in the east on Sunday, but may move off quickly, leading to a further westward push under the high pressure that will build in over the Atlantic. Any ideas out there? I haven't seen any model guidance or forecasts long range yet.

Posted by:
MR ? (http://dont have one) Location: Somwhere in florida ?
Posted On 06:49PM 07-Sep-1999 with id (QYYNRRWNRPNQTR*)

Hi I was Woendering what the chances of southern
florida having a direct impact, from soon to become floyd here he is suposed to have 85 mph winds in 72 hours with rapid intesification.

i f anyone would like to feel free to guess any of "?" above feel free to and who ever guesses right ill put it where it is suposed to go.

so start thinking

Models (#29)
Posted by: mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 07:41PM 07-Sep-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVRNRPU*)

The last time I checked the NoGaps and AVN the models were making conservative estimates and they werent particularly in agreement about direction much past the 65th longitude. However one of the models did show it doing the right hook off to the northern atlantic at the 144th hour model. But that is so far off who knows? The other thing is that they show the hurricane/storm slowing down in forward motion after getting past the Leewards so I think the models have just not kept up with any of the storms very well this year. Dennis sure gave them a run for the money.

"?"'s and TD #8 (#30)
Posted by:
Colleen Atwater Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 11:02PM 07-Sep-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNUT*)

1st, I am taking a guess, but I am guessing that Mr. ? is Mike Anderson and his location is Miami, Florida. Just a guess. We'll find out soon enough if I am right. 2nd, I am thinking that's its way too soon to guess where TD8/soon to be Floyd is going to go. I could guess anywhere and have a 50/50 chance of being right. So, until it's closer, I am not even hazarding a guess. I am worn out from Dennis.

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