CFHC Talkback For News Story #93:
Newest Talkback: 10:30 PM 09-14 EDT

TD#11 Forms in Extreme Western Caribbean
11:20 AM EDT - 14 September 2000

2:30PM Mini Update:
Recon has placed the system a little to the north and east of the previous position, which makes the time that the disturbance is over land less. Things are becoming interesting with this system for sure. I think it's going to have a hard time staying together the rest of the day, but tomorrow we could see something entirely different. Speculation aside, everyone around the Gulf will want to watch it closely.

Original Update:
Nearly moving over the Yucatan Peninsula, this system will be on the minds of many in the Gulf states over the next few days. Predictions vary from West Gulf to Florida. With the history of this odd season behind us, I will say that anything could happen. We'll be watching it closely. Hopefully a better idea of what will occur will happen later.

Most questions come from the center of circulation's location. Will it move over the peninsula? Will the center shift about. It's moving toward the Gulf, which allows it to strengthen. A cold front will be closeby by the weekend, which adds to the complexity.

Where will it go, and how strong will it be is pure speculation at the moment. The models aren't up to par yet with it. (mainly because of the location of the center)

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

A nice animated Water Vapor Image
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]


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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #7 (of 49 total)

Anything is possible (#1)
Posted by: Brian Location: Hollywood, Florida
Posted On 11:25AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (QSWNURNRPPNRPP*)


The way things have been going this season, I wouldn't be surprised if this system just moved into Mexico and disipated. On the other hand, it could move right up into New Orleans or even Naples, FL. I would say, no one, including the TPC has a clue where or when this one might die, explode, or strike.


Agree (#2)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 11:58AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)


I agree brian, this system is in early growth stage, and after looking at he sat loops, I believe the NHC put it too far west. There is even the possibility that the mid level circulation could pull the LLCC further north, or that it could re-develop further north. Hard to say right now. But it doesn't look to me like it's moving 305....more like 320/330. comments?

Agree with Steve in general (#3)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 12:21PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)


Very disorganized for a 'well organized tropical disturbance' a few hours ago.

IHS,

Bill

New center (#4)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 12:31PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)


You know, the close up loops make it look like a new center is forming over the Yucatan Channel, but there still seems to be a center right over Cozumel, looks like it is getting absorbed, or combining with the Yucatan Channel center (mid-level?), so maybe the system is stacking up? NOTE: if so, it will be relocated further N and E.

IHS,

Bill

Typical of this season. (#5)
Posted by: Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee
Posted On 12:39PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNTP*)


IE, anything can happen and probably will. At this point I would not be surprised to go to bed tonight and wake up to a storm that pulled an Opal like explosion. At the same time, to wake up to nothing seems just as likely. If TD 11 gets clear from the Yucatan, the models may get a hand on it. Probably another 24 hours before we really know.

td 11 (#6)
Posted by:
Doug Spangler
Posted On 12:54PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQTTNQNTR*)


Visible satellite displays SW-NE shear over the system caused by proximity of UL low in SW Gulf...if this persists the convection to NE of center will continue to be pulled to NE while center flounders over land...not a healthy system and many problems for it in development...

TD#11 (#7)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 01:16PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWWNQSSNXR*)


Hello All,
TD#11 is showing some very slow movement and that is going to be the biggest problem in forecasting what this system will finally do over time. There is southwesterly shear to the systems northwest which could inhibit developement along with the center of TD#11 being over land for the next 12 hours or so. I still see TS Gorden in about 24 hours but after the next 24 hours everything is up in the air. My biggest concern is the forward speed should decrease over the next 24-36 hours allowing TD#11 to strengthen. Exactly where this system slows down will be very important on its future path.. All this is dependent on the strength of TD#11. If TD#11 becomes stronger a more ne coarse could develope. If TD#11 remains very weak than a more nw track will develope. Along with it slowing down means we will have to watch this system for awhile. If TD#11 slows down enough it may miss the trough and continue moving very slowly in the central gulf allowing it to strengthen before it decides what it will do. The whole picture is still very cloudy so everyone in the Gulf needs to watch this system closely. At this time there is no other center trying to form so a repositioning is not likely. I feel the only way this may happen is if TD#11 falls apart and a new center forms and there is a possibility this could happen as it moves over land but as I said too cloudy too forecast just watch and wait.....

latest recon (#8)
Posted by:
alan Location: orlando
Posted On 01:17PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)


The latest recon put the center of the storm at 20.7N and 87.19W. That means that the center has reformed or is moving slightly E of north. That will keep it off of land or on land for a very short time.
The wind speed was 15kts. Not very strong.


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