CFHC Talkback For News Story #93:
Newest Talkback: 10:30 PM 09-14 EDT

TD#11 Forms in Extreme Western Caribbean
11:20 AM EDT - 14 September 2000

2:30PM Mini Update:
Recon has placed the system a little to the north and east of the previous position, which makes the time that the disturbance is over land less. Things are becoming interesting with this system for sure. I think it's going to have a hard time staying together the rest of the day, but tomorrow we could see something entirely different. Speculation aside, everyone around the Gulf will want to watch it closely.

Original Update:
Nearly moving over the Yucatan Peninsula, this system will be on the minds of many in the Gulf states over the next few days. Predictions vary from West Gulf to Florida. With the history of this odd season behind us, I will say that anything could happen. We'll be watching it closely. Hopefully a better idea of what will occur will happen later.

Most questions come from the center of circulation's location. Will it move over the peninsula? Will the center shift about. It's moving toward the Gulf, which allows it to strengthen. A cold front will be closeby by the weekend, which adds to the complexity.

Where will it go, and how strong will it be is pure speculation at the moment. The models aren't up to par yet with it. (mainly because of the location of the center)

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

A nice animated Water Vapor Image
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]


Show All Comments | Show Next 7 Comments | Show Previous 11 Comments

Displaying Talkbacks #8 - #14 (of 49 total)

latest recon (#8)
Posted by:
alan Location: orlando
Posted On 01:17PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)


The latest recon put the center of the storm at 20.7N and 87.19W. That means that the center has reformed or is moving slightly E of north. That will keep it off of land or on land for a very short time.
The wind speed was 15kts. Not very strong.

latest recon (#9)
Posted by: Andy
Posted On 01:31PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPXNUXNSWNUP*)


Alan, thats 20 degrees and 7 minutes or 20.1 N and 87.3 west.

andy (#10)
Posted by:
alan Location: orlando
Posted On 01:49PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)


That's the great thing about this message board. When you are wrong, someone is quick to correct it and you learn something new everyday. Thank you sincerely.
Does that mean that minutes are always rounded out to the nearest ten to get the decimal point?
And why wouldn't 19 minutes equal 83.2?
Just trying to learn.
Even with those coordinates, it's still not moving NW as the NHC says, but slowly NE.

Recon Coordinates (#11)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 01:55PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNRT*)


Yeah, I don't understand that either, Andy. How would 20.07 be rounded to 20.1N and 87.19 be rounded to 87.3? You would think it would be 87.2..in any case, this whole thing befuddles me. This morning they had it at 19N/85W at 1200 UTC...which had it directly in the Yucatan channel...how did it move so quickly and become so disorganized in 2 hours

Latitude and Longitude info (#12)
Posted by:
Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 02:10PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (QRNQSNRTXNQR*)


The latitude and longitude are input in degrees, so you might need to convert to degrees from
degrees:minutes:seconds. There are 60 seconds in 1 minute and 60 minutes in 1 degree. So, for
example:

65:45:36 south latitude converts to

-(65 degrees +
45 minutes * (1 degree/60 minutes) +
36 seconds * (1 minute/60 seconds) * (1 degree/60 minutes))

= -65.76 degrees latitude



Recon Coordinates (#13)
Posted by: Andy
Posted On 02:11PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPXNUXNSWNUP*)


the recon position was listed as:
20 DEG 07 MIN N
87 DEG 19 MIN W
This is approximately 20.1 N & 87.3 W
Its not being "rounded" to 20.1 it's being translated from Minutes to a fraction of a degree. Take the minutes and divide by 60 to get the decimal in degrees. For example 20 DEG & 30MIN would be 20 Deg & 30/60 deg or 20.5 deg. Hope I made sense......


Thanks (#14)
Posted by:
alan Location: orlando
Posted On 02:15PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)


But I still don't get it. I tried the formula and it didn't work out.
Keep trying. I'll learn eventually.

Now I get it (#15)
Posted by:
alan Location: orlando
Posted On 02:16PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)


Thanks Andy and Frank. Again this is what makes this web site so great.


Show All Comments | Show Next 7 Comments | Show Previous 11 Comments


Return to Central Florida Hurricane Center Main Page