CFHC Talkback For News Story #98:
Newest Talkback: 01:25 PM 09-11 EDT

Floyd and More!
12:55 PM EDT - 10 September 1999

It's getting busy again. Hurricane Floyd appears to be slowly winding up, and east of Floyd there are two interesting areas that may develop in the next few days.

Models are trending more to the west again. One interesting item is that the MRF gives it a track similar to Hurricane David (1979) in the long range. But that would be for "entertainment purposes only" as the MRF (some call it the Most random forecast) can be way off on tropical systems sometimes. The GFDL still has it turning more back to the west as it approached the Bahamas, and the NOGAPS still has it going out to sea. Ie, roll the dice or throw a dart.

We'll be watching it. Good news is that it does look it will miss the Caribbean islands.

Personal Reports from the Caribbean -- Caribbean Hurricane Page

For more information on Hurricane Floyd see the Current Storm Spotlight for Hurricane Floyd.
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
GFDL Model & Plot
Weather Channel Caribbean Sat Image
Intellicast Caribbean IR Loop
Intellicast Atlantic IR Loop

More Sat images: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.


- [jc]


Show All Comments | Show Next 5 Comments

Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #5 (of 26 total)

FLOYD TRACK GETTING INTERESTING (#1)
Posted by: JAMES Location: MOBILE, AL
Posted On 02:17PM 10-Sep-1999 with id (RPYNQRNQUNSY*)


THE MORE THE COMPUTER MODELS RUN THE MORE
INTERESTING THEY GET. DOES ANYBODY KNOW WHERE
I CAN GET UP TO DATE MODEL RUNS PAST 72 HOURS?
SATELLITE IMAGERY OF FLOYD IS LOOKING GOOD.
I CAN SEE A HINT OF A EYE FORMING ON THE LATEST
VISIBLE IMAGERY.

Floyd (#2)
Posted by: Mark
Posted On 02:25PM 10-Sep-1999 with id (QRNWWNQTYNQRS*)


Floyd continues to move with a bit more northern component and it looks good that Floyd will miss the islands. What happens now is getting more interesting. Floyd is showing more of an eye feature and when recon flight gets in there over the next hour we expect to find a stronger storm. There seems to be a weakness in the upper ridge to Floyds north right now but this is forecasted to strengthen again and push Floyd westward again. How far? Thats the question.. If I had to make a long range guess right now, the Bahama's could be next in line. As for the U.S. its even tougher. All residents especially from Florida to South Carolina need to stay close to reports this weekend. Although Floyd will not effect the U.S. until after the weekend, most likely midweek seems best guess. Now for the guess work: My guess takes Floyd westward towards south central Florida east coast. Will it go further west I have no guess right now but I am leaning towards no and Floyd will brush the east coast in the long range.

Trough Moving Away (#3)
Posted by: SirCare
Posted On 02:28PM 10-Sep-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNQXW*)


Looks to me like on the loops thta the trough is moving away to the NorthEast, if Floyd misses it it could mean trouble for Florida.

Folyd (#4)
Posted by: Mark Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 03:00PM 10-Sep-1999 with id (QRNWWNQUQNYP*)


Floyd has a visible eye on satelite and recon reports pressure dropping to 977 mb. Recon also reporting the center is a bit to the north of the 2pm advisory(20.1n, 59.3w.) Satelite is showing a more northwest motion over the last few hours but a turn to the west-nw is forecasted. Models are still in disagreement so all we can do is stay tuned.

Trough (#5)
Posted by: Steve H Location: Palm Bay
Posted On 04:11PM 10-Sep-1999 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)


Allen Archer said on his 2pm forecast on the radio that he had great news on Floyd, that the models indicated floyd will be pulled out to sea by the trough. Does he know something I or the TPC don't? I don't have time to look at the latest tracks. Anyone?

floyd (#6)
Posted by: scott
Posted On 04:36PM 10-Sep-1999 with id (VSNRSNQXUNQSX*)




Hi folks,,,if you've read me past comments you
can see that I'm right on pace again with this
system,,,,and with the intensity speed and direction,,,,way ahead of others.

But the only thing with Floyd so far is that he jogged alittle more to the northwest,,,a trun to the west will take placeduring sat,,tru monday.

I still see big strengthening during the sunday night period,,,,,now for landfall,,,I will make that exact judge ment as of saturday,,,but the
questions are ...when will he turn west,,,,how far north will he be..


Show All Comments | Show Next 5 Comments


Return to Central Florida Hurricane Center Main Page