CFHC Talkback For News Story #98:
Newest Talkback: 01:25 PM 09-11 EDT

Floyd and More!
12:55 PM EDT - 10 September 1999

It's getting busy again. Hurricane Floyd appears to be slowly winding up, and east of Floyd there are two interesting areas that may develop in the next few days.

Models are trending more to the west again. One interesting item is that the MRF gives it a track similar to Hurricane David (1979) in the long range. But that would be for "entertainment purposes only" as the MRF (some call it the Most random forecast) can be way off on tropical systems sometimes. The GFDL still has it turning more back to the west as it approached the Bahamas, and the NOGAPS still has it going out to sea. Ie, roll the dice or throw a dart.

We'll be watching it. Good news is that it does look it will miss the Caribbean islands.

Personal Reports from the Caribbean -- Caribbean Hurricane Page

For more information on Hurricane Floyd see the Current Storm Spotlight for Hurricane Floyd.
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
GFDL Model & Plot
Weather Channel Caribbean Sat Image
Intellicast Caribbean IR Loop
Intellicast Atlantic IR Loop

More Sat images: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.


- [jc]

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Displaying Talkbacks #6 - #26 (of 26 total)
floyd (#6)
Posted by: scott
Posted On 04:36PM 10-Sep-1999 with id (VSNRSNQXUNQSX*)



Hi folks,,,if you've read me past comments you
can see that I'm right on pace again with this
system,,,,and with the intensity speed and direction,,,,way ahead of others.

But the only thing with Floyd so far is that he jogged alittle more to the northwest,,,a trun to the west will take placeduring sat,,tru monday.

I still see big strengthening during the sunday night period,,,,,now for landfall,,,I will make that exact judge ment as of saturday,,,but the
questions are ...when will he turn west,,,,how far north will he be..
Floyd to move west (#7)
Posted by: MR?
Posted On 05:27PM 10-Sep-1999 with id (RPWNSVNRQRNT*)

I was just watching 5.00pm news and their now talking about floyd missing the trof and high pressure will build in north of floyd and pussh more westarly. And they are saying now that floyd will threaten the east united states next week

{Floyd may even Reach southeast Bahamas}
What a Magnificent Storm! (#8)
Posted by: mary Location: lakeland
Posted On 06:59PM 10-Sep-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVRNVX*)

I just saw a beautiful picture of the Sir Floyd on the watervapor loop. I hope that we can admire that Gentleman from afar for many more days. However, it does look like it will start to threaten peopled places soon.
A hurricane in 87 or 88 ? (#9)
Posted by: Rob
Posted On 07:23PM 10-Sep-1999 with id (QYYNRRWNRPNQYX*)


Hi i when i was young around 3 to 4 years old in 1987 or 1988 there was a hurricane that came near florida or was suposed to hit or something.
I remeber my dad staying on are boat here in stuart florida and my mom and my sister and me going to a Stonger building becuse of what my told me was a hurricane and she said it could pickup the van that we had.
The only reason i remeber this was becuse i remeber thinking of a teridactle type bird swooping down and grabing the van that was parked outside.

If anyone Could help me or remeber the name of that storm or hurricane PLease email me or just POST it for me thank you.
too soon, but getting closer (#10)
Posted by: Steve Hirschberger Location: palm bay fl
Posted On 11:21PM 10-Sep-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNQWT*)

The latest TPC discussion stated that the models unanamously bring Floyd on a west-northwest even westward track bringing it through the central bahamas and very near Central fl on day 5, with the UKMET the most aggressive with the westward track. Long range models say the east coast of the US will be impacted (I assume that means further up the coast, maybe mid-atlantic or New England). Anyhow slow intensification will occur until beyond 48 hours, when more rapid strengthening is expected to occur. Still, a lot can happen during the next three days. (But if this forecast track holds up through 5 pm tomorrow, I'm getting the plywood checked and will get other things in order.) The idea that the long range models are banking on might be a last minute cold front that may turn Floyd north of the Central Fl coast. Don't see any strong evidence on that yet. This is still a long way off but model agreement is becoming a concern for us on the central FL east coast. Stay tuned.
Help for Rob (#11)
Posted by: Debbie (John & Mike's Big Sis) Location: Port St John, FL
Posted On 11:29PM 10-Sep-1999 with id (VSNQTNXNRTQ*)

Rob,
I just noticed your comment. If you would click on the "Storm Links" in the blue area on the left of this site it will take you to LOTS OF OTHER HURRICANE INFORMATION WEBSITES. If you go down about 1/2 way there is a link called: Unisys Weather Tropical Page. Click on that -- it will give you all the hurricanes/storms for each year & their tracks. Good luck. Hope you find the answer you are looking for. Bye, Debbie
Floyd (#12)
Posted by: Mark Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 06:12AM 11-Sep-1999 with id (QRNWWNQUPNQWV*)

Hello everyone well Floyd over night has strengthened with the pressure dropping to 963mb from the latest recon at 5:15am this morning. Winds still at 105mph. Now for the more interesting part of this update where is Floyd going?? Most models are moving Floyd northwest and then w-nw and then more west beyond 48 hours to just off the central Bahama's in 72 hours with winds of 125 mph. The million dollar question is when is the westward turn to take place and will it continue beyond Monday. At this point all people in the central Bahama's should prepare for a possible major hurricane early next week. As for the Florida coast I believe the chances are increasing that Florida may get more from Floyd than first thought. The upper ridge is forcasted to become very strong over the next 48 hours north of Floyd. A trough moving through the central U.S. will approach the east coast on Tuesday but will this be strong enough to weaken the ridge to Floyds north allowing a more northern component and missing Florida and ending up further up the east coast.. Some models are showing a weaker trough moving off the east coast not effecting Floyd at all allowing Floyd to continue w-nw over Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico and some are showing Floyd turning more nw towards the Georgia Coast. I am leaning more towards the Florida coast right now. This is still forcasted to become a major hurricane beyond 48 hours so everyone in Florida get prepared this weekend just in case the worst does develope.
Mark, Mike, or any others who might know (#13)
Posted by: Nary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 06:56AM 11-Sep-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVRNSW*)

Although I know what impact Andrew had on Homestead, because I saw that with my own eyes, How would a 125mph hurricane impact an in -land county like Polk. We always hear about the boarding up and the evacuations of mobile homes during thunderstorms, but how much of the 125 mph winds would be left after making landfall at say Vero Beach or West Palm. There are no mountainous areas to break up the forward speed and I know that Erin was not a big deal by the time she made landfall. We got 35 to 40 mph gusts, something we get in the winter off a mild cold front. Just wondering how much hurricane hype to get into and how much to just relax and wait for things to pass. Our excitement in Polk County before was the evacuees coming up from Miami during Andrew.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION #9 (#14)
Posted by: Jeanine Location: Hollywood, FL
Posted On 09:24AM 11-Sep-1999 with id (VSNQTNSWNRUS*)

I was over in the Caribbean Hurricane page and they have some great links! I found the BAMD,BAMM,A90E,LBAR,SHIP graphics and now they are showing TROPICAL DEPRESSION #9! However I have not been able to find any other information on this on any of the other sites that I have! If anybody can give some good educational weather sites I would greatly appreciate it. Thank You.
Floyd (#15)
Posted by: Mark Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 09:27AM 11-Sep-1999 with id (QRNWWNQTYNRQX*)

Hello Nary,
As for Polk county the big inpact of any hurricane is mainly the rain and flooding that takes place along with a possibility of Tornado's. Don't forget the possibilities of no power for several hours to days depending on how bad it gets in your area. Right now its a wait and see period but if you want to get anything started you could always get normal supplies like parishable foods, flashlights, radio's and things like this. Water is a big one too. You can always use water even if we miss this one. Being prepared is only the first step and thats where we are right now.





Rob Info----Keith or FLOYD (87) (#16)
Posted by: Bill
Posted On 09:51AM 11-Sep-1999 with id (SXNSPNQVWNQWU*)

Hi Rob...

In 1987 Hurricane Floyd (yes, Floyd) struck s Florida (Keys, south Dade) moving from the sw to ne (actually wsw to ene). It was a minor hurricane.

In 88, TS Keith struck the Sarasota area (in Oct, late) and crossed, exiting near Cocoa.

IHS,

Bill

all eyes on this yrs Floyd. The trheat is real and getting 'realer'!
ANDREW ANYONE? (#17)
Posted by: Dan Location: Hollywood, FL
Posted On 09:53AM 11-Sep-1999 with id (QSWNURNQYXNQTW*)

After looking at the current track of Floyd, and reviewing its' forecast track, it looks ominously similar to that of Andrew 92'. I have one question: Do it look as if this one will remain westward causing the TPC to issue a Hurricane watch on Monday or Monday night for Florida's Coast.
Re: (Nary)..er Mary?, Polk Impact (#18)
Posted by: Bill
Posted On 10:02AM 11-Sep-1999 with id (SXNSPNQVWNQWU*)

Mary, A storm of 125 mph could have a very significant impact even in Polk County. Remember Andrew, it moved over S Fla and decreased from 145+ mph only to 125mph (altho it was only over land for 4 hrs...a better example is Gladys in 68, went from Crystal River to St Augustine, decreased from 105 to 75....also remember Hugo in Charlotte as a hurricane..and Opal's highest winds were in Ozark, Al, gust to 127 mph, over 100 miles inland!). Erin is no comparison to a Cat 3 125 mph storm, it was a Cat 1 with 85 mph winds when it struck Indian River/Brevard. If a 125 mph hurricane hit in the same area and went over or just south of Polk, moving say 10-15 mph, that means the center (at 15mph) could be over Polk in 6-8 hours. Remember Floyd is a large storm, and because Fl is so narrow, it would still have plenty of the circulation over water.
With all the givens, could still be looking at and 80-100 mph hurricane, sustained, with higher gusts. There could be significant wind damage, especially to mobiles. And, 5-10" of rain would be likely, plus possible tornadoes.

Even inland in Polk, you have to take this storm, or any like it, very seriously.

IHS,

BIll
Nary's Question and Mark's response (#19)
Posted by: clyde w Location: orlando
Posted On 10:04AM 11-Sep-1999 with id (TNQWNRUPNU*)

I just wanted to expand a little on nary's question and mark's response. mark you are right on with your answer, however, i was in s. carolina 3 days after hugo hit and the damage, even 125 miles from the coast, was extensive. also, andrew, had 125 mph winds while exiting the west coast of florida. a storm moving 15mph over florida is expected to lose approximately 1-2 categories of strength by the time it crosses the state. however, mark is right that most of the time flooding is a major concern. if you go to the nhc home page, there are some interesting total rainfall, and inland wind forecasting models that can show you more. nhc stands for national hurricane center.
FLORIDA HAS THE CATCHERS MIT THIS TIME (#20)
Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 10:16AM 11-Sep-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNUR*)

Good morning im real sorry for not posting last nigh but i did and it never posted, Lets get to work, FLOYD will be a real big problem for central Florida next week,im short on time but im going to give it to you the way i see it, Im expecting FLOYD to come in to the east coast of Florida around WEST PALM TO VERO, this should be a major system when it reaches the Florida coast, As for what it could do farther inland, well thats very hard to say, not all tropical systems are the same when they make landfall, however FLOYD is going to get bigger and the sunshing state is flat, FLOYD could and im sure he will bring Hurricane force winds through the state, You all neet to be in the ready mode, take a list of things you may need, above all stay calm and keep tuned to the weather as the day's go on, im putting my web site on today and will give you all the address, this will give you all another tool to have, the site is not finished but in responce to FLOYD i fely i needed to get it up, ill post again today with more on FLOYD and have the web address Mike Anderson FDlorida WX.
Radio Frequencies (#21)
Posted by: Bill Location: Titusville Fla.
Posted On 10:31AM 11-Sep-1999 with id (RPXNQTNTQNYP*)

Just a note, for anyone with a shortwave radio capable of receiving Single Side Band (SSB).
As the storm approaches the Bahama Islands, listen to 14,283 Megahertz. The Islanders are colorful and informative to listen too. This is primarily a dawn to dusk frequency.
Next 14,325 Megahertz is designated as a hurricane emergency frequency for ham radio traffic, sometimes the only communications available between stricken areas and the outside world. This frequency is usually activated when a hurricane is very close to, over or passed a populated area.
On 14,300 Megahertz, Ham radio operators who are onboard their boats commuicate and that too can get interesting. Hope this is of interest to some of you. Bill, NE4XT.

FLOYD: Not looking good for Florida. (#22)
Posted by: SirCane
Posted On 10:44AM 11-Sep-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNQWV*)

I am looking at a similiar track as Hurricane Erin in 95' except this one will be a lot stronger. I expect it to be 125-140mph. I woulg get your Hurricane supplies ready,
Best Guess - When will Floyd (#23)
Posted by: Cathy Location: Bartow
Posted On 12:16PM 11-Sep-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNUS*)

Another Polk County person here. I am reviewing my plans. I know there are multile variables but if Floyd keeps moving like he is now, when would you expect landfall?
THE NEW WEB SITE (#24)
Posted by: Mike Anderson (http://www.fortunecity.com/greenfield/tigris/622/weather/ectwp.htm)
Posted On 12:52PM 11-Sep-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNRX*)

Good after noon i have the address for the new web page, im hopeing that mike C. is ok with me adding the new web address, Let me tell you very quick about the site, you will also have the optian to post in the site ,however this is still under constuction and will be up very soon, the site has an open storm chat that will be hosted by my friend and weather wx, Live Storm Center, the site will give you all you need for updates as well i hope you all enjoy the new site, AND NOT FORGET THIS SITE as this is really a great site,and ill still post here as Mike C is a real good guy to chat with, please use the new site as a secound tool , again feel free to use the storm chat anytime now and maybe all of you who have been posting to eachother can now shear your live thoughts as well, Mike Anderson Florida wx
floyd (#25)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 12:58PM 11-Sep-1999 with id (VSNRSNQXUNRPV*)

I know alot are waiting for my discussion
on floyd,,but I won't make ths call till later
tonight until the rest of my data comes in,,,
First thing first,,when is Floyd going to turn west,,,,,,,,that's the key for us all. He's expected slowly today,,but mainily by tommorow
the due west motion should start.....tell ya all
in full detail late tonight,, scottsvb
(previous under scott)
Floyd (#26)
Posted by: Robin Location: Melrose, FL
Posted On 04:25PM 11-Sep-1999 with id (RPYNRQRNQSSNXX*)

WE know that Floyd will be near 25/26N and 70W by Monday. We know that he will be on a WNW or W heading. In order not to strike Florida he would have to make a sharp right turn. Could this vaunted trough cause such a radical deviation?
On the other had climo is heavily against a Florida strike (not one out of 20-30 storms at his present location/strength/month has hit Florida. So there you go. My vote is a near miss with TS force winds Cape Canaveral to St. A
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