CFHC Talkback For News Story #99:
Newest Talkback: 12:52 AM 09-17 EDT

Gordon
10:53 AM EDT - 16 September 2000

update 2:30: Tropical Storm Warnings in effect from Bonito Beach to Suwanee River.
update Noon: Recon has found Gordon's pressure to be 986mb. A drop of 6mb. Gordon is strengthening.

Sorry for the Headline mistake. Gordon is still a Tropical Storm with 65mph winds. Hurricane watches have been extended Suwanee River to Apalachicola. Intensification is expected and Gordon should be a Hurricane soon.The NHC still feels it will landfall around the Big Bend, but that is subject to change. I still feel the track will move more east. What do you think?

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for TD#11. From Michael Bryson.

Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop
A nice animated Water Vapor Image
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)
StormCarib.com has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean.
Ouragans.com Franais -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens.
Tormenta.net Espaol -- Gran informacin sobre huracanes aqu.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [jc]


Show All Comments

Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #56 (of 56 total)

CLUELESS (#1)
Posted by: Richie Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Posted On 11:17AM 16-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNUW*)


In the past 3 hours the storm has moved .2 North and .5 East and they call that NE. In my book that is called ENE. On top of that they move the watches north instead of south. What is going on? I guess they want another Irene. Remember 1994, Gordon comes ashore near Ft. Myers.

Agree (#2)
Posted by:
John C. (http://www.flhurricane.com) Location: Cocoa, FL
Posted On 11:19AM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNXY*)


The NHC must not be telling us everything, because I just don't see it.

Info Doesn't Jive (#3)
Posted by: Debbie Location: PSJ, Florida
Posted On 11:20AM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNSW*)


I have a question--why would TWC state Gordon was moving NNE when it moved 2 degrees north and 5 degrees east? Wouldn't that be more like ENE? Also, how come "cold fronts" push Atlantic storms eastward but somehow Gordon can push through them in the gulf

Because.. (#4)
Posted by:
Jim F. (http://flhurricane.com/jfaul/) Location: Ft. Lauderdale
Posted On 11:23AM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPXNVQNQQUNY*)


They are not independent thinkers. They only repeat what the NHC tells them. It doesn't matter that the NHC track record is awful. I agree with John..this thing is going alot farther east than they are telling people.

Head Line Mistake (#5)
Posted by:
John C. (http://www.flhurricane.com) Location: Cocoa, FL
Posted On 11:23AM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNXY*)


This is why I made the headline mistake:

000
WTNT41 KNHC 161438
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 16 2000

RECENT AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT GORDON IS MOVING ABOUT 035/08
KNOTS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AHEAD A
DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST THEREFORE...GORDON SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK
UNTIL LANDFALL IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS A LITTLE
BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE GFDL AND THE FSU EXPERIMENTAL SUPERENSEMBLE
AND CLOSE TO THE UKMET. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
ACCORDINGLY. IN ADDITION...DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND ABOUT 100 N MI
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THEREFORE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WAS
NECESSARY FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.

THE CLOUD PATTERN IS GRADUALLY IMPROVING AND THE RECON REPORTED A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 992 MB AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 68 KNOTS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT IDEAL FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.
HOWEVER...INTENSITY GUIDANCE MAKES GORDON A HURRICANE AND SO DOES
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

IT IS A BIT EARLY TO FOCUS ON A PARTICULAR LANDFALL LOCATION. ALL
INTERESTS FROM MISSISSIPPI TO FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR GORDON.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1500Z 23.9N 86.1W 55 KTS
12HR VT 17/0000Z 25.0N 85.4W 65 KTS
24HR VT 17/1200Z 27.0N 84.6W 70 KTS
36HR VT 18/0000Z 28.8N 83.7W 75 KTS
48HR VT 18/1200Z 31.0N 82.5W 40 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT 19/1200Z 36.0N 79.5W 30 KTS...INLAND

What is going on??

future of Gordon (#6)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 11:25AM 16-Sep-2000 with id (VSNTRNQTQNXP*)


If Gordon really is moving more ene that might allow the storm to move through Florida and into the Atlantic. If that did happen would it ride up the east coast?

Info (#7)
Posted by:
kandis Location: deltona
Posted On 11:32AM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPWNSPNUSNQYY*)


First I just want to say I love this site. I tell everyone I know how good you all are at really looking at the models and really tell it like it is.
Now with all the talk about it coming more east, what are the chances that it could come our way(deltona) and what kind of intensity could we be looking at.
Any info would be much appreciated for our preparation in the deltona/daytona beach area.

Thanks again for all your hard work.

ene (#8)
Posted by:
troy (http://@h) Location: titusville,fl
Posted On 11:37AM 16-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRTNQQSNQPR*)


i too was puzzled by the ne movemnet ( actually refered to as nne at the 11 am twc update)- .5 to the east .2 to the north.

my only guess with that is they want to see a trend with this direction a few more hours before the change their track and direction again. which to a degree is understandable b/c a constantly changing track may cause people to ignore any warning, but, on the other hand, even a 3 foot surge will but water into the downdown tampa bay area.

the track with irene last year changed almost hourly. i say its headed a bit more east-




Weather Report (#9)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 11:51AM 16-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWWNQSRNRST*)


Hello All,
I know have light rain and thunder winds 5 mph from the southeast Peak gust 9 mph(last hour) Pressure 29.99 or 1015.5 mb Temperature 83 dewpoint 77. Dark clouds building to the southwest.

Gordon (#10)
Posted by:
Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Somewhere in Tenn. Mountains
Posted On 12:10PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRURNQWNVS*)


Ack, figures the one time I leave and get to a place with mega slow net access a hurricane forms. I cannot update the site from here, so John will continue to do updates.

Good luck W. Coast of Florida!

latest vortex data... note pressure fall (#11)
Posted by:
Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 12:13PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYTNRPW*)


URNT12 KNHC 161503
VORTEX DATA MESSAGEA. 16/1502Z
B. 24 DEG 03 MIN N (24.05 N)
86 DEG 09 MIN W (86.15 W)

C. 850 MB 1310 M
D. 60 KT
E. 155 DEG 35 NM
F. 216 DEG 54 KT
G. 161 DEG 29 NM
H. EXTRAP 986 MB
I. 17 C/ 1554 M
J. 22 C/ 1535 M
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/8O.
0.5/2 NM
P. AF985 0811A GORDON OB 14

MAX FL WIND 67 KT NE QUAD 1308Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 850MB. SFC CTR 170/09.

Note pressure of 986!!!



Heavy rain band moving thru (#12)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 12:19PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWWNQSSNRTV*)


Hello All,
Well the first really heavy rain band moving thru as I write winds have gusted to 15 mph. Wind increasing slowly.

forecast track (#13)
Posted by: Alan Location: Orlando
Posted On 12:24PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (QVYNQSYNQYQNRTR*)


I have to agree with all of you. Hurricanes have always followed the water vapor flow and there is a distinct eastern movement to the water vapor flow from about the bottom of the panhandle across the state. I can't believe that it's going to break through the front, unless they believe it's going to be a major hurricane, and that is doubtful. I believe it will enter the state in the Bradenton/Sarasota area head through the state and leave the state between Cocoa and Daytona.
On a side note, it's really amazing how there is almost an apathetic view of this system in Orlando. Usually, whenever there is a hurricane close to Orlando in the Atlantic, that's all the stations are talking about. With this one, it's barely the lead story on the newscasts. No one seems to think it will affect Orlando, but taking the course I have put, it would make it a strong tropical storm in Orlando with it being a 90 mph hurricane when it hits. If it intensifies more, then we could have hurricane force winds and no one will be prepared.

Storm Intensifying (#14)
Posted by: Richie Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Posted On 12:30PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNQUQ*)


Recon has found a lower pressure by 6 mb and both the visible and IR satellites show a much more concentric system. Will see a hurricane shortly.

pressure drop (#15)
Posted by:
troy (http://@h) Location: titusville,fl
Posted On 12:35PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRTNQQSNQPR*)


the latest pressure drop is similar to the drop last night that led to the increased strenght and naming of the storm. 6mb in an hour while not being a bottom falling out situation is still a sign of healthy, intensifying storm.

whatever track it takes, a yucky, rainy weekend is in store for florida.

gorden and td12 (#16)
Posted by: scottsvb (
http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 12:36PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (VSNSYNSWNRT*)


Gorden is still on my forcasted track over the last 2 days. He should be a hurricane as of the 2pm update,,but defidently by 5pm.
With the latest pressure of 986mb this shows a 75-80mph hurricane....now most everyone knows that i am very cautious in the meteorolgy dept,since i am 1,,but I will have to let everyone in the florida area this. Moderate to strong intensification should begin this evening though tonight,,,,i expect a cat 3 by morning on sunday.
The reason of this is simple. The current rain in and around the tampa to orlando area has to do with the trough,,,not Gorden yet,,but this system is breaking apart due to the ridge building up from the cuba-bahamas area....I expected and said previously a ne or ene direction with this system and a turn to the nne later this evening as it loses the trough,....I feel a late Sunday landfall,,but i need to get back to the office to get more detailed info,,,just to see if it wobbles around sunday evn or move nne and across the tampa-cedar key area...when landfall occurs,,winds of 100-120mph should be expected around the center,,,but not 50 miles away will have 60-75miles sustained in the main squall bands. So my thinking is this will be the time line and strength of the system,,,overnight intensification is highly likly..a ne then nne progress should continue,,,speed of direction is the same until sunday aft,,,when it could slow down or speed up across the state....
TD12 should become a TS on sunday and move w and be a hurricane when it gets near Jamaica..by Tuesday..............

eye formation? (#17)
Posted by:
gary Location: jacksonville
Posted On 12:39PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNUS*)


Is it just me or do you see an eye starting to form?

TD12 (#18)
Posted by:
Darcy Location: Ontario, Canada
Posted On 01:20PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNTXNQRSNQPS*)


TD12 is now nothing.
I have no idea what will happen with it...maybe go to the gulf.


Direction of Gordon (#19)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 01:23PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNQXR*)


This is so unbelievable pathetic to me...these local forecasters INSIST that this systemm is going NE, when if you look at vis sat loop, it is headede ene...if this continues, and ends up making landfall south of Tampa, the NHC (if they don't adjust the track more east) should be held accountable for anything that happens to these people. A 12mb drop in 8 hours

Weather Report (#20)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 01:33PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWWNQXPNV*)


Hello All,
Latest rain band going thru as I write wind gust of 21 mph from the south. Temp. 84 dewpoint 78 pressure 1015.2mb or 29.98 in. dropping slowly.

coleen (#21)
Posted by:
troy (http://@h) Location: titusville,fl
Posted On 01:38PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRTNQQSNQPR*)


i agreee with you on the track. hopefully evryone in the watch area will tak ethe time to prepare now for anysituation that may accur.

waether on the space coast- overcast, 10mph ne breeze, probably from the front. not yet feeling any southerlies here.

Gordon (#22)
Posted by:
Tracey
Posted On 01:54PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPWNVYNQRQNQUV*)


How do they expect Gordon to go further north with the troph dropping down into central Florida? I agree, I think it will probably go more to the east. Can it cause the troph to go back further north?



Gordon (#23)
Posted by: DCVoltz
Posted On 01:57PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNQSXNTXNQQU*)


I Feel it will make landfall somwhere betwen tampa and Ft. Myers
there is a tropical wave to its south and a cold front to the north the angle of attack will change from 35 to 45 to 50

pressure dropping (#24)
Posted by:
troy Location: titusville,fl
Posted On 02:07PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRTNQQSNQPR*)


gordon's pressure down anothe 2mb to 984...




Gordon showing little movement in the past few hours. (#25)
Posted by: Tinpusher
Posted On 02:13PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNSS*)


Its possible that high pressure building in behind the cold front to the northeast may eventually block Gordons movement to the north and east. I not sure if this is what is happening, but the last two recon fixes have shown very little movement.

This Explains it all (#26)
Posted by:
John C. (http://www.flhurricane.com) Location: Cocoa, FL
Posted On 02:30PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNXY*)


Following copied from 2pm Advisory:

DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...ALL COASTAL INTERESTS ALONG
THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM FLORIDA TO MISSISSIPPI SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS STORM.

North Central Florida (#27)
Posted by: stormy
Posted On 03:11PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RTNTRNQQUNRUP*)


if Gordon hits florida, will it hit North Central Florida, in the Gainesville area? Please let me know ASAP.

POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS STORM??? (#28)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 03:19PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNTV*)


Meaning what? They think it's going to intensify

This is what I was talking about: (#29)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 03:20PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNTV*)


HOWEVER...INTENSITY GUIDANCE MAKES GORDON A HURRICANE AND SO DOES
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

and, so, why wasn't it classified

Weather Report (#30)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 03:25PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWWNQTUNWX*)


Temp. 85 dewpoint 76 wind south at 3 mph
Pressure 1013.3 mb or 29.93 in. Cloudy with dark skies to the southwest.

hurricane gorden (#31)
Posted by: scottsvb (
http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 03:27PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRSNQXUNRTW*)


Everyone,,gorden will be a hurricane by the 5pm advisory,,,,,,,also the wind speed will go up dramaticly overnight,,to over 100mph by morning on sunday,,,,,, a nne turn has occurd as i forcasted today and this motion should continue with wobbles to the ne.
I've been updating my personal hurricane page every hour,,,,please go to it to get the most up to date information on this,,,a path to cedar key and close to st pete is still the forcast,,,,,,,
scottsvb

On the Move (#32)
Posted by:
Jim F. (http://flhurricane.com/jfaul/) Location: Ft. Lauderdale
Posted On 04:02PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPXNVQNQQUNY*)


After a few hours of rest and relaxation in the 85 degree water it looks like our buddy is on the move again. Probably doing a little reorganizing also as healthy tropical systems like to do several times a day..otherwise things would be real dull and to easy to predict. Anyway, I still don't like this big bend scenario if for nothing else becasue the NHC says so and they have been so wrong so many times since Irene. The tendency to stay south and east for so many hours(called it jogs, wobbles, etc but E is E) plus the upper level flow plus just looking at the way the the thing is pointed and has been since late yesterday. I like some additional strengthing tonight and an upgrade as Gordon is ready to graduate to the next level, if he hasn't already. I don't like any of the models either..miserable initialization, miserable performance this year and probably just trying to deal with a very, very complex situation, anotherwards go back to basics to try and figure this one out.

North??? (#33)
Posted by: Barbara Location: Mobile
Posted On 04:16PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRQTNTUNQXX*)


Is it just my imagination (I HOPE!) or did the last few clips just shown on The Weather Channel look like a "jog" straight north?? Someone please tell me I'm seeing things............

Thanks

On the Move (#34)
Posted by:
Jim F. (http://flhurricane.com/jfaul/) Location: Ft. Lauderdale
Posted On 04:27PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPXNVQNQQUNY*)


After a few hours of rest and relaxation in the 85 degree water it looks like our buddy is on the move again. Probably doing a little reorganizing also as healthy tropical systems like to do several times a day..otherwise things would be real dull and to easy to predict. Anyway, I still don't like this big bend scenario if for nothing else becasue the NHC says so and they have been so wrong so many times since Irene. The tendency to stay south and east for so many hours(called it jogs, wobbles, etc but E is E) plus the upper level flow plus just looking at the way the the thing is pointed and has been since late yesterday. I like some additional strengthing tonight and an upgrade as Gordon is ready to graduate to the next level, if he hasn't already. I don't like any of the models either..miserable initialization, miserable performance this year and probably just trying to deal with a very, very complex situation, anotherwards go back to basics to try and figure this one out.

Gordons future (#35)
Posted by:
jim w
Posted On 04:29PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWWNQUYNQWQ*)


This may sound crazy but I'M starting to think gordon may get sling shotted into apalachi bay. Just east of Apalachicola,my guess 80mph at landfall.

GORDEN STILL A TS,,NHC NEEDS HELP.... (#36)
Posted by: scottsvb (
http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 04:56PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRSNQXTNVT*)


Would anyone with no experience like to be head of the NHC

Current position (#37)
Posted by: Barbara (
http://@h) Location: Mobile
Posted On 04:58PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRQTNTUNQXX*)


Ah Hah! 4 pm position confirms what I thought I saw.......more NORTH than East!! (24.8/85.7) NOW WHAT!

Scott (#38)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 05:09PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNTV*)


I think they are doing drugs at NHC. If this thing comes anywhere near me and they have screwed it up, I will personally drive down to Miami to tell Max exactly how I feel. This is absolutely irresponsible and incorrect...unbelievable to say the least. This thing is going to hit, and it may be a hard hit, and IMO, they are screwing around down there...

as for the jog to north, that is just what it is: a jog...it jogged to the east earlier, so beware.

I CANNOT ABSOLUTELY BELIEVE THAT THEY HAVE NOT UPGRADED THE WATCHES TO WARNINGS FOR THE GULF COAST (of course, unless I missed it)...Scott, great job, and I think you are right on.

Colleen (#39)
Posted by:
John C. (http://www.flhurricane.com) Location: Cocoa, FL
Posted On 05:09PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNXY*)


Yes this is what they said in the 11am advisory, (could it have been a typo?: Rember this was the 11 am Governemet Discussion.

HOWEVER...INTENSITY GUIDANCE MAKES GORDON A HURRICANE AND SO DOES
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST

Go figure!

Govenment (#40)
Posted by:
John C. (http://www.flhurricane.com) Location: Cocoa, FL
Posted On 05:11PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNXY*)


Now I had a few typo's myself in that last post ie
Remember

Government

tropical storm (#41)
Posted by: William Location: Crystal River, Fl.
Posted On 05:22PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNRQUNRUUNYW*)


If Gordon is still a Tropical Storm!!! Then im George Washington!!!!!!!!!! This is a Hurricane!!!!

Chat Tonight Starting At 9pm EDT (#42)
Posted by:
John C. (http://www.flhurricane.com) Location: Cocoa, FL
Posted On 05:25PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNXY*)


Join in on the Chat tonight at 9 and lets talk about Gordon and Uncertainty of its track.
Everyone is welcome to join in from the Novice to the Hurricane Experts..

Northern Sheer... (#43)
Posted by: Debbie Location: PSJ, Florida
Posted On 05:30PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNSW*)


The local news (ABC) stated that the northern sheer of Gordon is hindering its strengthening (or slowing its development). I would like to know how the forcasters can point out the front's sheering powers but not its direction-pulling features

Statistics (#44)
Posted by:
John C. (http://www.flhurricane.com) Location: Cocoa, FL
Posted On 05:37PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNXY*)


For those interested in who looks at this site:


These statistics are updated every hour and resets late every Sunday
night. 


Click
here




Yeah, I Have A Comment (#45)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 05:37PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQWX*)


They are inept. to say the least....if Flo is a hurricane with pressure higher than Gordon, how does Gordon stay a TS

bouy data (#46)
Posted by: ken Location: orlando
Posted On 05:49PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPWNVYNQQSNRSY*)


great site guys, been using it since last year and rec to everyone. Interesting data on the bouy data site. The 2 southernmost bouys in the gulf are reportin drastically different info. The bouy that is directly in line with Ft. Myers/Tampa seems to be indicating that
Gordon is headed in that direction.

Colleen for NHC !! (#47)
Posted by: David
Posted On 05:55PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNQQTNRRPNRTW*)


I vote for

Colleen

for the new leader of NHC. :)

Good Link (#48)
Posted by: David
Posted On 06:00PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNQQTNRRPNRTW*)


http://www.intellicast.com/LocalWeather/World/UnitedStates/Southeast/Florida/Sarasota/1kmStormWatchLoop/

nhc reasoning (#49)
Posted by: Frank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 06:06PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)


hey, quit knocking the nhc. colleen, usually i complain about little quirks they have too, but you guys are getting a tad rough. those guys are the pros, after all. pressure/wind relationships arent always going to work out the same way, if you adjust for a flight level wind of 70 kt, take 90%, youre still a strong tropical storm. yeah, the pressure is low, but remember josephine in '96? it had a 981 and wasnt quite a hurricane. its some baroclinic effect..
yes, there should be hurricane warnings up by now, but some models are having the trough shear to the north butcher gordon.. having considered previous storms this season it should be taken as a serious mitigating factor in gordon's development. the pressure curve is shallowing its descent for now it seems, so gordon may stay right around min. hurricane strength for a while.. but if it doesnt entrain dry air from the trough to the north of have its outflow disrupted, it could go up a category. the 100mph by tomorrow morning scott calls for strikes me as an overestimate, considering that an eye feature isnt present and the cdo is only quasi symmetric.. and the outflow is pretty much one sided as well. this storm is organized but not yet a very dangerous system. it only has the potential to be one. if it slows and deepens again like it did this morning we may be looking at a major hurricane landfall early monday. otherwise expect a minimal hurricane late sunday. location should be dixie county, near cross city and cedar key, either way. instead of complaints, i wanna hear what you all predict.
have a good one, folks. enjoy the breeze.

Gordon and the NHC (#50)
Posted by:
BillD Location: Miami
Posted On 06:16PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNXVNQXSNVV*)


For what my comments are worth, I think everyone is overreacting to the NHC forecast. They are professionals that have been doing this for many years. It is just not one individual sitting there making up whatever they feel like saying. And this system, for anyone that has been watching it all day, has been wobbling all over the place. There are differences of opinion on the future track even on this discussion list.

As far as the 11:00 AM information, the reference to hurricane status was in the "discussion" not in the public advisory. I could see where dropping one word from that statement could change its meaning, from statement to speculation. Were they considering classifying Gordon as a hurricane then? Most likely. Did they? No. Did they screw up in publishing that statement? Yes. Should they have published a correction? Yes. Should they have classified Gordon as a hurricane at 5:00 PM? Maybe, its still borderline in my novice opinion.

But for everyone thinking that Gordon is going to plow across central Florida.. the latest visible, and even the latest IR from NWC, look to me like Gordon is now taking an almost due north track... just like the NHC has been saying all along.

But of course by the time I hit "Post" on this message, it will all have changed again...

Thank you (#51)
Posted by: Jonathan
Posted On 06:21PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RTNYUNRSUNRPU*)


Thank you Frank!!!
I know that you all mean well but the NHC guys are some of the best metrologists in the country! They went through years of collage to earn there degrees in Tropical Forcasting so stop hitting them so hard! There is alot of Physical Vectors and Thermal Dynamic's that go into a forcast. There are alot of different wind levels that influence the overall steering patterns of tropical systems. Think about these factors and then make your predections!


Frank (#52)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 06:24PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQWX*)


Sorry I ticked you off..but, they are inept. Now, at 6:oopm it is a hurricane, and the local forecasters here in Tampa are calling for a hurricane in the 120-130 mph range. Take it or leave it...they have screwed up big time. Sorry you don't like what I say, but that's ok. We all have our own opinions. In the end, someone will be right or wrong....in the meantime, go back and take a look at the NHC'S RECORD...they have screwed up big time with Florida storms...no offense taken, no offense given...just giving it straight from my gut.

120-130 mph????? (#53)
Posted by: nick
Posted On 06:53PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNQWS*)


which local forecasters said that

PEOPLE AND NHC (#54)
Posted by: scottsvb (
http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 07:44PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRSNQXWNS*)


Some of us are meteorologist on here,,,and now it is a hurricane,,,,but the reason some of us are upset at the NHC is cause they know its going to be a hurricane any time,,which it was upgraded,,but the fact remains,,,for only 5mph they might as well made it a 75mph hurricane to give people alittle more scare and warning to get ready since it will be around 100mph by morning.,
scottsvb

Nick (#55)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 09:23PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNTY*)


They said it on the TB 8 channel....120-130mph...believe it or not...that's your decision.

Mandatory Evacuations? (#56)
Posted by:
Mike Location: Valrico
Posted On 12:52AM 17-Sep-2000 with id (RTNYRNRQWNX*)


Long time viewer of this site and I value the different comments from all the contributors ranging from weather buffs to weather pros. My question is why didn't they order mandatory evacuations with the posting of Hurricane Warnings at 11:00 P.M.? If Gordon comes ashore say, just north of Tampa Bay (i.e. Tarpon Springs which is in warning area) even as a cat 1 storm, a lot of people would be under water in Pinellas and Hillsborough Counties. So far they have only given voluntary evacuation orders for zone 1 areas and we are less than 24 hours from expected landfall. I know they are expecting actual landfall farther north but this seems to be dangerous and can mislead people into a false sense of security that they are not in danger.


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