CFHC Talkback For News Story #100:
Newest Talkback: 12:25 AM 09-18 EDT

Gordon Now a Hurricane
06:07 PM EDT - 16 September 2000

The 5:45 Tropical update just stated Gordon is now a Hurricane. Live Chat tonight at 9 pm EDT Click on "live Chat" on the Nav bar to the left. Where is Gordon going to make landfall that is the big question and how strong will he be?

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for TD#11. From Michael Bryson.

Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop
A nice animated Water Vapor Image
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)
StormCarib.com has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean.
Ouragans.com Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens.
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [jc]

Show All Comments | Show Previous 28 Comments
Displaying Talkbacks #11 - #31 (of 31 total)
NHC's Track (#11)
Posted by: Alan Location: Orlando
Posted On 08:01PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (QVYNQSYNQYQNRTR*)

The problem I have with the NHC's forecast is that they haven't been right yet on this storm. Still, I know this is not an exact science and models are prone to mistakes.
The main reason that I am disgruntled with the NHC is that they have not fully explained why they think it will break through the cold front and not follow the water vapor trail.
They said there is a troff (sic) in the gulf of mexico and a ridge to its SE. Where exactly is this trough? Why do they think the cold front is going to break down?
I just don't understand. However, I also saw the latest sat. loops that look like the storm took a NW jog.
I am Back, and my site is updated too! (#12)
Posted by: Richard Byett (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 08:02PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNTPNQWY*)

Well after a two week break i am back. Just wanted to make a brief posting to say hi to u all, and to wish those of u in western florida all the best. It looks like some of u may be in for a rough ride. My site is now updated, and will be regularly updated throughout, but i am having problems with the programme i use to access my web site, it should be sorted by tuesday though. Therefore updates to my site may be infrequent over the next 48 hours. However i have issued a number of watches and warnings from my site (including a Hurricane Warning!). Please remember my site and the watches and warnings on it are for guidance only, not official information!!!!
Any way i have to go, but i will post back tomoro morning (my time).
Take care everyone!


GET OVER THE BULL (#13)
Posted by: NICK Location: ORLANDO ,FL
Posted On 08:02PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQXS*)

AND GET BACK TO THE MAIN ISSUE THAT THIS SITE WAS INTENDED/ GORDEN/ OTHER THAN THE BICKERING GOING ON TONIGHT THIS IS A GREAT SIGHT THANKS
ne or nw (#14)
Posted by: William Location: Crystal River, Fl.
Posted On 08:04PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQVPNRTRNQRV*)

Dice did you mean making a move to the ne or nw?
duh? (#15)
Posted by: dice
Posted On 08:11PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNSR*)

to the northeast
Center is Showing on Radar (#16)
Posted by: Mitch McCauslin (http://home.cfl.rr.com/h2ocean/weather.html) Location: Cape Canaveral, FL
Posted On 08:18PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RTNYUNRSQNST*)

On Satellite it looks like Gordon is taking more of a wobble north, but on radar it looks like it is going NE. Sometimes when the CDO is expanding, it can make the motion on satellite look like it is wobbling. The center of the hurricane appears to be on the edge of radar (remember, images on the edge of the radar periphery can be a little distorted). Click on the below link and click on Java Loop and adjust the radar motion speed to view the animated radar.

http://www.intellicast.com/LocalWeather/World/UnitedStates/Southeast/Florida/Melbourne/Radar/index.shtml


Heading North (#17)
Posted by: David
Posted On 08:18PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRUNTV*)

Looking at this loop:

http://sgihss3f.wwb.noaa.gov/data4/images/TROPICAL/float/float-ir4-loop.html

It looks like it is following the 85W directly north.
NW jog and trough (#18)
Posted by: Alan Location: Orlando
Posted On 08:19PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (QVYNQSYNQYQNRTR*)

I should know better to trust the local network's sat. pics. One they showed on Orlando's channel 13 looked like NW, but when they showed the radar on the weather channel, it looked like a pretty steady movement with a line on Cedar Key area. I hope it doesn't do much damage to one of my favorite fishing spots and a great place to eat crabs.
Also, TWC showed a great water vapor image that showed the trough dipping down to the NW of Gordon and raising to the NE of the storm. This would certainly make the NHC's track look a lot more likely and a now don't think it will hit south of Tampa.
Job oppurtunities (#19)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 09:21PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)


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Your search has resulted in 7 jobs.
The job information was last updated on 09/16/2000

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AEROSPACE ENGINEERING TECHNICIAN GS-0802-09/11 09/21/2000
C/AOC/00014.BSC COMMERCE, NAT OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMIN
MACDILL AFB, FL

CONSUMER SAFETY INSPECTOR GS-1862-05/05 10/03/2000
C/NMF/00061.MJB COMMERCE, NAT OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMIN
PEMBROKE PINES, FL

ECONOMIST GS-0110-14/14 09/22/2000
C/NMF/00062.BSC COMMERCE, NAT OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMIN
ST. PETERSBURG, FL

ECONOMIST GS-0110-13/13 10/04/2000
C/NMF/00063.CAH COMMERCE, NAT OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMIN
MIAMI, FL

RESEARCH FISHERY BIOLOGIST GS-0482-12/ 10/02/2000
C/NMF/00057.CAH COMMERCE, NAT OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMIN
MIAMI, FL

RESEARCH FISHERY BIOLOGIST GS-0482-12/ 10/02/2000
C/NMF/00057.CAH COMMERCE, NAT OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMIN
MIAMI, FL

RESEARCH FISHERY BIOLOGIST GS-0482-13/ 10/02/2000
C/NMF/00058.CAH COMMERCE, NAT OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMIN
MIAMI, FL






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does anyone see this? (#20)
Posted by: stan Location: Tinton Falls, NJ
Posted On 09:24PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (VSNSQNRTVNQXT*)

Just watching TWC - doesn't look like their sat. picture is as up to date as the one on this page -http://kauai.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/tc_home.

Looks like an eye to me. Also - notice the recon plane hasn't reported a vortex message since 7:15.

I respect John Hope a great deal, but I think he may be off with his intensity forecast (cat 1 max).




sorry guys (#21)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 09:27PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)

I for got to say- these are job openings at the NHC
Fish Storms (#22)
Posted by: Jim F. (http://flhurricane.com/jfaul/) Location: Ft. Lauderdale
Posted On 09:30PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPXNVQNQQUNY*)

Three of those jobs advertised is for a "RESEARCH FISHERY BIOLOGIST"..Does that mean you only work on fish storms?
Okay, Back off (#23)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 09:33PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNTY*)

Guys...you want to know what I think? IRENE ANDREW FLOYD DENNIS ALBERTO DEBBY

The point is: keep up your guard....I am not here to "bash" or call them names...my point is this: they are doing a horrible job. And Tommy, regardles of what you think, I have followed storms for over 11 years....the last two years at NHC have been the worst...the have declared storms as depressions (ala Beryl and TD#9) just hours before they made landfall.

I personally don't care what anyone else thinks. Wake up in the morning, and I will either be vindicated or I will apologize.

End of story.
Colleen it's okay (#24)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 09:52PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)

Any time people are stressed they vent (me, you, them) seen any T#s lately
Colleen it's okay (#25)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 09:53PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)

Any time people are stressed they vent (me, you, them) seen any T#s lately
whatever (#26)
Posted by: tommy Location: cocoa beach,florida
Posted On 10:23PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRUUNTNRSR*)

i have to tell you colleen that i didn't mean to get personal.i have lived in florida since i was 6 years old.i am now in my 40's and i have surfed since i was like 13.the point is this:i have followed hundreds of storms but that still doesn't mean that i know more than the pros.i love to follow hurricanes because i love the waves they produce but i am still an amateur when it comes to forcasting what these things are going to do just as you are.forcasting is an imperfect science at best.the NHC will be the first to tell you of the inaccurancy of their forecasts when you go out 72 hours.they always have a tough call to make.call what they think is going to happen and when it doesn't everyone is pissed.don't call it and it does happen and everyone is pissed. they can't win.you more than anyone else should understand this.i'm sure you understand everything that is involved when they issue a warning for a certain area and you have to start evacuating.i personally feel they take a very level headed approach especially when you see the local news people around here jumping on these things and proclaiming a major catastrophe is fixing to come upon us.somewhere cooler heads need to prevail when it comes to these things.i think they are doing the best they can with the technology they have and i just think you need to cut them a little slack.i really don't feel they have some hidden agenda to keep us all as uninformed as possible.my bottom line is still the same:they are the pros.they know more than we do and i will still listen to them first when it comes to what these storms are gonna do and where they are gonna go.if you don't want to that is your choice.thanks
RADAR (#27)
Posted by: NICK Location: ORLANDO ,FL
Posted On 10:29PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNUQ*)

LOOKS LIKE IT IS MOVING ENE IN RADAR LOOP/ AND CONVECTION IS FIRING UP ON THE EAST SIDE AS WELL AS THE WEST AND ALSO MOVING FASTER/ WATCH OUT TAMPA /HOPE IM SEEING THINGS GOODNIGHT ALL
Current observation 40 mi north of st Petersburg (#28)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 11:35PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)

Winds out of the north at about 8 to 10 mph light rain tide normal and pressure at 30.7. Seems kind of high but I think it will fall fast soon.
Agreement (#29)
Posted by: Pat Location: Saraspta
Posted On 02:02AM 17-Sep-2000 with id (RTNTNRURNQVQ*)

For what it's worth, I monitor this site constantly and think very highly of it. I also monitor the NHC closely and think highly of them. Both for different reasons. I agree with Tommy 100%. A few of you need to back off. You are far more knowledgeable than I but I believe that the NHC does not harbor the hackers that you seem to think lingers there. Do I believe in their predictions all the time. Of course not. But then I don't believe in the predictions posted on this site all the time either.

Tommy is right. This is not an exact science and I believe that the NHC has a tough row to hoe. On the whole you people can make predictions that are extremely accurate but then you don't have the entire American population to contend with if you're wrong.
Hurricane What? (#30)
Posted by: Joan Location: Ocala Florida
Posted On 04:16PM 17-Sep-2000 with id (QUXNRURNSPNUT*)

You havent seen nothing! If you have been thought the storms that Ive been thought this is a april shower. What happened I was looking forward to a good storm.
andrews south carolina (#31)
Posted by: charles crist
Posted On 08:25PM 17-Sep-2000 with id (VSNSQNWRNQTW*)

i would like to know . what the storm is going to do in the georgetown south carolina area. will there be any strong winds and how much rain do you think there will be
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