CFHC Talkback For News Story #103:
Newest Talkback: 11:55 PM 09-19 EDT

Lots of Action out there
08:06 PM EDT - 18 September 2000

Gordon still causing a lot of rain in the southeast. But he is gone!

More action brewing in the tropics.  Remnants of TD #12 working it way in south of Cuba is looking like it may strengthen some.  Two other tropical waves east of the Caribbean we need to keep an eye on.  

Sorry for not being here it was not my choice to go to Texas it was my Job.  Still here working of a slow laptop.  And trying to keep up with the tropics while I'm in a school.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for TD#11. From Michael Bryson.

Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop
A nice animated Water Vapor Image
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)
StormCarib.com has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean.
Ouragans.com Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens.
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [jc]

Show All Comments
Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #59 (of 59 total)
Sorry (#1)
Posted by: John C (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Cocoa, FL ( Currently in San Antonio, Texas)
Posted On 08:19PM 18-Sep-2000 with id (RQVNVWNUXNST*)

I just want to apologize for not keeping the Site up during the time of Gordon. This was not my choice. Most of all the important things are automatic. But small things like the sites background color and other things like news updates we have to change manually. I thought Mike was going to be back this morning but I guess I was wrong. I hope he is ok, haven’t heard from him yet. Thank you all for using this site!
No Apology Necessary (#2)
Posted by: clyde w. Location: orlando
Posted On 08:25PM 18-Sep-2000 with id (VSNWSNRQSNU*)

You guys run one helluva site! Keep up the good work.
TD#12 NHC numerical models (#3)
Posted by: Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 10:12PM 18-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNTW*)

Latest NHC numerical models (0000UTC) on wave in western caribbean.... models indicate hurricane with 89 knot winds moving in a general northwestern direction in the central GOM in 72 hours....

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/00091823
Tired Florida Folks (#4)
Posted by: Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 10:52PM 18-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNRR*)

Things sure are quiet tonight on the web page even with the impressive wave in the caribbean... I guess all you Florida people are worn out from tracking old Gordo.... Suffering from post hurricane traumatic stress syndrone... been there and done that too!!! Not to worry, good ole Southern Miss boy looking out for yall... USM Golden Eagle!!!! Things should be heating up tomorrow with this wave.... stay tuned
Latest GFDL... looks familiar (#5)
Posted by: Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 03:37AM 19-Sep-2000 with id (VTNQRNQPUNQWS*)

The lastest GFDL model run on the #12 dep at 0Z Sept 19 looks almost identical to our old buddy Gordo...

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/00091905
wave (#6)
Posted by: Rick Shade Location: Mobile, Al
Posted On 07:56AM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNQRNVYNRQS*)

I concur Golden Eagle boy...I happen to be a Bama fan...hope they fire the coach...oh well, maybe we can beat St. Mary's school for the blind...looking forward to some real action now...the tropics heating up, and no one watching? When this gets in the gulf...I wonder if it'll wake em all up...

gotta go..have a good day ya'll...I'll check the post tonight.....

Gulf (#7)
Posted by: Lou
Posted On 08:32AM 19-Sep-2000 with id (QRNTPNRUNYX*)

What does everyone think about the mass in the bay of campeche
The Big Picture (#8)
Posted by: David
Posted On 09:04AM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNQQTNRRPNRTW*)

Looking at this loop:
http://sgihss3f.wwb.noaa.gov/data4/images/TROPICAL/atl/nwatl-wv-loop.html

You have to wonder if it will be sucked up towards Fl with the rest of the flow? I don't know
Gulf of Mexico (#9)
Posted by: Richie Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Posted On 09:09AM 19-Sep-2000 with id (QVUNQVQNSNQS*)

What is that in the Southern Gulf
BOC cranking up? (#10)
Posted by: Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 09:13AM 19-Sep-2000 with id (QRNQSNRTXNQR*)

Boy, that thing in the southern gulf is really looking impressive this am, more so than old TD12 right now on the IR sat pix... NHC didn't even discuss it in their morning update...
LOL (#11)
Posted by: Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee
Posted On 09:28AM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNTP*)

I looked at the GFDL run for TD12 or whatever it is. Same spot as Gordon. I can't help but to chuckle at that. Poor Cedar Key. I know they are hoping for forecast error. Looks like someone is running an instant replay of Gordon in the last half of that run.
Development??? (#12)
Posted by: Tom
Posted On 09:51AM 19-Sep-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

It appears, looking at the latest visble that the low level center is now coming off the northern coast of Jamaica. I believe that now we should get some development and I also agree that it will follow a similar path of Gordon. In addition to this, we also have to watch the southern gulf. If this gets going, it could be an assembly line into Florida
THE BOC (#13)
Posted by: L.T. Location: Pensacola, FL
Posted On 10:03AM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNTQ*)

Its moving NNE right now and looking better by the hour!! Central and NE Gulf COast residence be ready for another threat, but this time much worse!!!!
BOC Low (#14)
Posted by: Bob Location: North Carolina
Posted On 10:38AM 19-Sep-2000 with id (VSNTVNRRXNU*)

NWS has the low in the BOC moving West. I see it moving NE, quick. High to the east which is pushing 12, is squeezing the BOC low against the SW winds coming over Mexico. The upper level winds which sheared Gordon are still blowing.
Question: What are the winds over Texas?
I'm guessing TD#12 is back. (#15)
Posted by: Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee
Posted On 11:02AM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNWU*)

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM

19/1145Z 16.7N 78.9W T2.0/2.0 TD12

I guess we will see in just a bit.
Then again, maybe not. (#16)
Posted by: Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee
Posted On 11:06AM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNSQ*)

Looks like they are still waiting for reconSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE...IS
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA...AND THIS
ACTIVITY IS SPREADING INTO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE WAVE IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS IN
CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

Plus, it looks like they are going to check out the system in the western Gulf. Looks like its going to be busy for a while.


T#s GOM (#17)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 11:09AM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRQVNXUNRUR*)


TPNT KGWC 191445

A. DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO

B. 19/1215Z (118)

C. 21.9N/2

D. 93.5W/7

E. FIVE/DMSP

F. T1.5/1.5/INIT OBS -19/1215Z-

G. WX4547/28326/DLS-TS-EIR-MI/T



50/ PBO PRTLY XPSD LLCC ON 85H.



H. CENTER WAS 1.7 DEGREES WEST OF NADIR.



I. GALE WIND RADIUS ANAL - N/A



More T#s (#18)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 11:24AM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRQVNXUNRUR*)


DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM

19/1145Z 16.7N 78.9W T2.0/2.0 TD12



gom (#19)
Posted by: mark Location: new orleans
Posted On 11:27AM 19-Sep-2000 with id (SXNSQNQTYNWS*)

Had anyone forecasted that big blob i the BOC? It seems that it just exploded very rapidly. Any models showing the eventual movement of this system?
Question (#20)
Posted by: David
Posted On 11:45AM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNQQTNRRPNRTW*)

I will be in New Orleans tomorrow for a week, any chance of that disturbance in the GOM making it my way??
TD 12 (#21)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 11:46AM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRQVNXUNQWY*)


DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.



NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE (AL1200) ON 20000919 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...

000919 1200 000920 0000 000920 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 18.9N 78.3W 19.6N 80.8W 20.4N 83.0W

BAMM 18.9N 78.3W 19.6N 80.5W 20.4N 82.3W

A90E 18.9N 78.3W 19.8N 82.0W 20.9N 85.0W

LBAR 18.9N 78.3W 20.2N 81.5W 21.7N 84.3W

SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 48KTS



...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...

000921 0000 000921 1200 000922 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 21.2N 84.8W 21.8N 86.2W 23.1N 89.0W

BAMM 21.4N 83.6W 22.0N 84.6W 23.1N 86.1W

A90E 22.3N 87.4W 23.3N 89.1W 26.1N 91.0W

LBAR 23.5N 86.5W 25.7N 87.6W 30.1N 86.1W

SHIP 57KTS 67KTS 84KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LAT0 = 18.9N LON0 = 78.3W DIR0 = 285DEG SPD0 = 19KT

LATM12 = 17.6N LONM12 = 74.4W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 19KT

LATM24 = 17.2N LONM24 = 70.6W

WND0 = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 30KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = -9NM RD34SE = -9NM RD34SW = -9NM RD34NW = -9NM



NNNN




Test runs on 91L BOC (#22)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 11:49AM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRQVNXUNQWY*)


.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....



NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION (AL9100) ON 20000919 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...

000919 1200 000920 0000 000920 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 21.0N 93.5W 22.5N 93.9W 24.0N 93.9W

BAMM 21.0N 93.5W 22.8N 94.2W 24.4N 94.5W

A90E 21.0N 93.5W 21.2N 93.5W 22.2N 93.6W

LBAR 21.0N 93.5W 21.8N 93.9W 23.3N 94.4W

SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS



...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...

000921 0000 000921 1200 000922 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 25.6N 93.6W 26.8N 92.7W 29.8N 89.2W

BAMM 26.0N 94.0W 26.7N 93.3W 28.0N 91.3W

A90E 23.4N 93.9W 24.5N 94.0W 27.2N 93.5W

LBAR 25.3N 94.6W 27.3N 94.0W 31.9N 90.0W

SHIP 47KTS 56KTS 67KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LAT0 = 21.0N LON0 = 93.5W DIR0 = 0DEG SPD0 = 0KT

LATM12 = 21.0N LONM12 = 93.5W DIRM12 = 0DEG SPDM12 = 0KT

LATM24 = 21.0N LONM24 = 93.5W

WND0 = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = -9NM RD34SE = -9NM RD34SW = -9NM RD34NW = -9NM



.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....


Oh Boy....This Is Crazy!!! (#23)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 12:35PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYUNRPQ*)

Wow...the gulf and caribbean are really cranking up...who said Mother Nature was sleeping? Maybe she hibernated to long up north, now she's cranky and going to make up for it...I shudder at the thought...no matter where they head.
test runs (#24)
Posted by: alan Location: orlando
Posted On 12:56PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)

These test models have the storms coming to roughly the same point at the same time from opposite directions. How is this possible? Won't the steering currents guide both storms in the same direction, or will do these tests show what will happen if each is the one that survives.
Perhaps they have some alliance and voted Gordon off the earth this week.
COLLISION (#25)
Posted by: NICK Location: ORLANDO ,FL
Posted On 01:02PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYTNRPW*)

IF THESE TWO STORMS COME THAT CLOSE TO EACH OTHER WHAT WOULD POSSIBLY HAPPEN/ THOUGHTS ANYONE
I Have No Clue (#26)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 01:13PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYUNQYY*)

...but, if they came together, I believe the bigger one would swallow the little one, and whoever gets it, loses. What are the steering currents, anyway?
TD#12,,,TD#13 (#27)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 01:16PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWWNQSRNQVU*)

Hello All,
Well it looks like we are in for a rough 3-5 days. I believe the most important is the tropical wave in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. This area has gotten much better organized over the last 12 hours and it looks like we may have a Tropical Depression even a Tropical Storm this afternoon. The rapid development of this system is very important due to its position and is expected to move northward and head towards the upper Texas coast into Louisiana in about 48 hours. John Hope just reported that a plane will be in there around 2pm to check things out and he expects the NHC to upgrade the system so pay close attention.
Now the area just south of central Cuba is showing a circulation center and a plane should be in there around 1pm. This area should develope and the big concern is it looks like this system could take a simular track as Gordon did just a few days ago. This would create another heavy rain maker for Florida in just a short period of time along with a little more time to develope than Gordon had so we may have a stronger system down the road. Though nothing has been upgraded at this time I feel over the next 4 hours we may see alot of information to deal with. People in the west central Gulf and the eastern Gulf need to monitor reports this afternoon and thru the week very closely.

Hurricane Gordon totals here in Cape Coral were:
Lowest Pressure: 29.80" Highest Wind Gust: 61 mph
Total Rainfall: 7.85". I really don't need another rain maker this soon. I had alot of street flooding ranging from a few inches up to almost 15" deep. We are not ready for another one so soon.
Two Storms (#28)
Posted by: Bruce Location: Palm Bay Florida
Posted On 01:17PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNRY*)

I have read that a few storms have came close to each other in the past. One of the storms rotated around the other one. John Hope from the weather channel seems to think that the storm in the gom could already be a TD or even a TS, and will head north, while the other storm would take the same path as Gordon and be a treat to Florida.
Active!! (#29)
Posted by: Richard Byett (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 01:20PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNSSNQVU*)

Well, things really are hotting up!! Looks like anyone in the Gulf, and the Northwestern Caribbean really needs to monitor the two systems closely! Latest visible imagery shows the area in the GOM is well organised, with good convection, and a possible centre developing.
The remnants of TD#12, continue to look good too, with evidence of circulation and banding.It looks like there may be a possible centre located just east-north-east of the Caymans. The next few hours will tell on both systems, as will the recon flights, but i ewould not be surprised if both systems are classified soon!
Both systems are the subject of Tropical Cyclone Formation Alerts on my site.
New T#s 12:30 PM EDT (#30)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 01:21PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRQVNXUNQPV*)


TPPZ1 KGWC 191706

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SW OF MEXICO

B. 19/1630Z (119)

C. 16.1N/8

D. 103.2W/6

E. FIVE/GOES10

F. T1.5/1.5/INIT OBS -19/1630Z-

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI



70/ PBO ANMTN. SYSTEM GRADUALLY ORGANIZING, WITH SEVERAL CURVED

BANDS TO THE NW AND SE OF THE LLCC. OUTFLOW LOOKS GOOD, ESPECIALLY

IN THE SW SEMICIRCLE. CNVCTN WRAPS .20 ON THE LOG10 SPIRAL. FINAL T

IS BASED ON DT. PT SUPPORTS.


New T#s 12:30 PM EDT (#31)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 01:27PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRQVNXUNQPV*)


TPPZ1 KGWC 191706

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SW OF MEXICO

B. 19/1630Z (119)

C. 16.1N/8

D. 103.2W/6

E. FIVE/GOES10

F. T1.5/1.5/INIT OBS -19/1630Z-

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI



70/ PBO ANMTN. SYSTEM GRADUALLY ORGANIZING, WITH SEVERAL CURVED

BANDS TO THE NW AND SE OF THE LLCC. OUTFLOW LOOKS GOOD, ESPECIALLY

IN THE SW SEMICIRCLE. CNVCTN WRAPS .20 ON THE LOG10 SPIRAL. FINAL T

IS BASED ON DT. PT SUPPORTS.


Disreguard post above (#32)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 01:37PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRQVNXUNQPV*)

Not for us
Tropical Cyclone Alert (#1) (#33)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 02:05PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQXS*)

This was posted this morning by the Navy and is relative to the system now west of Jamaica:

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT KNGU 191200
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.0N0 76.0W3 TO 23.2N7 86.2W6 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 191045Z0 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N0 76.0W3. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
LATEST IR SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE A DIFFUSE CENTER NEAR 19.0N 76.0W MOVING 275 DEGREES AT 12 TO 15 KNOTS. SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE TOPOGRAPHICAL INFLUENCE OF HAITI. UPPER LEVELS INDICATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE CENTER. POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AND SST'S
IN THE LOW TO MID 80'S.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 201200Z5.//

As you can see, by the early morning time it was posted, this system has improved gradually and will probably be named a TD @ 5..

td12(again) and other stuff (#34)
Posted by: troy
Posted On 02:08PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (VSNQQNTWNRPY*)

the 0z gfdl runs show waht was td12 and will again be td12 taling a very similar track to gordon. what is wierd is that run dosnt have the low in the sw gulf on any portion of the mapped run.

those in the know..is this b/c it is a run for that depression in that they would just map that feature? or did it develop that fast unexpectedly?

i would think the later b/c the other maps do show other features...

also what effect will both these storms have on each other in a developmental phase?

I to have see mature storms rotate around the others circualtion, but these are forming storms. is there enough real estate down there for both??




two storms (#35)
Posted by: Doug Spangler Location: sarasota
Posted On 02:13PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQTTNQNTQ*)

The two systems are very close together...if the boc system develops rapidly the outflow could inhibit the td12 progress and development, watch how the n-nw outflow carries over the system or not as the case may be...td12 is moving quite fast and it will not pull together too fast...can't wait for the aircraft reports...EDS.
Disreguard post above (#36)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 02:21PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRQVNXUNQPV*)

Not for us
Water Vapor Loop (#37)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 02:34PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQXS*)

If you look at the WV Loops, you can see a huge area of dry air coming down into the general area where the GOM system seems to be headed. What, if any, effect would this have on the system? Would it push it more towards the NE where the moisture is? Would it kill it? Would it converge it with the other one? Just all questions that I am not knowledgeable to deal with...btw, I have been trying to pull up the other loops since around noon, they are all down arrgghh...Colleen
Latest Sat Images (#38)
Posted by: Gerry Location: Venice Fl
Posted On 02:46PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRVNRQTNQUY*)

The sat images just released show the system in the BOC somewhat difused and less organized than earlier images. Caribean system has much better organization since leaving the topographical influence of Hati and Jamica. This looks to me as if it has formed a defined center of circulation and has the characteristics of a TS not a TD. Comments
I Agree Gerry (#39)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 02:54PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQXS*)

It definitely looks as though it has an LLCC, but it will all depend on who's flying the recon...Mr. Magoo or a pilot. J/K!!! We will find out soon, I am sure...but my bet (because of the losses I have taken this season) would be to state the obvious, GOM will be Helene, and Caribbean thing will be Isaac....just following past logic!!!!
Interesting GFDL Run (#40)
Posted by: Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee
Posted On 03:15PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNSQ*)

TROPICAL STORM TWELVE 12L



INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 19



FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 18.9 78.3

6 19.4 78.9 311./ 7.2

12 20.3 80.2 303./15.3

18 21.0 81.8 296./16.6

24 21.9 82.9 306./13.2

30 22.7 83.9 308./12.5

36 23.7 84.7 323./12.5

42 24.7 85.0 340./10.1

48 25.7 85.1 355./10.6

54 26.8 85.0 6./10.6

60 27.7 84.7 18./ 9.5

66 28.5 83.9 43./10.5

72 29.4 83.1 44./12.2

78 30.4 82.2 42./12.2

84 31.3 81.2 49./12.1

90 32.2 80.2 46./13.0

96 33.6 79.2 37./16.0

102 34.8 78.2 38./15.0

108 36.0 77.0 46./15.1

114 37.1 75.5 53./15.7

120 38.1 73.8 60./17.1

126 39.1 72.2 57./16.2






Not sure if we should read anything into the "Tropical Storm 12" Header on that. Its not the normal header. This could be an interesting system if it has developed.
GDFL (#41)
Posted by: alan Location: orlando
Posted On 03:34PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)

I plotted them out and that puts the storm on top of Cedar Key in 72 hours. Very strange.
Recon?? (#42)
Posted by: Gerry Location: Venice Fl
Posted On 03:43PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRPNQPXNWP*)

Has anyone heard anything about the latest recons??
Former TD12 (#43)
Posted by: Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee
Posted On 04:17PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNTP*)

Interesting info from SSD

19/1745Z 18.9N 79.2W T1.0/2.0 TD12

Looks like it is not in as good of shape as we though with the T# drop. I thought a saw a llcc earlier; but not really seeing an evidence of it now.


recon (#44)
Posted by: mark Location: new orleans
Posted On 04:23PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (SXNSQNQTYNV*)

why hasn't there been any information from the recon flights sent out this afternoon?
RECON INFO (#45)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 04:29PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWWNQSTNTV*)

Hello All,
I have only found one report from the flight. They were located at 18.9 n 79.8 west pressure 1012mb wind 27 knots fro 230 degrees at 1750Z
230? (#46)
Posted by: Frank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 04:37PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)

230 is wsw.. that would indicate a closed low, but does that reflect at the surface? the analyses theyve been giving indicate a pretty sharp inverted trough to the wave but too much forward motion for it to work itself up a surface low.. so as the thing begins a turn to the nw it gets a better shot at organizing. im not really sure its doing that, however.. this thing is almost right over grand cayman and theyre hardly reporting a breeze.. by the way, last night i noticed that the western gulf buoy was reporting a pressure slightly lower than the other buoys and of those on the texas coast.. at the time i thought nothing of it, but now i wonder if that was some trough related to the current BOC activity? a precursory feature?
aw well, suppertime and then more class. take it easy cfhc folks.
TC Interaction (#47)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 04:39PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (QRYNQQUNRTRNQXU*)

In the event that the two lows get very close to each other, and if conditions were favorable for it, they would theoretically engage in a Fujiwhara interaction. In the "classic" pattern, both storms would revolve cyclonically about a center point. Since both systems are nearly the same size, this is a likely option. However, it would probably be difficult to see just by looking at their tracks; you'd have to plot their tracks relative to each other over time, or better yet, relative to a "centroid" between the two systems.

It's been found recently that TC interaction is more complicated than had once been thought, and I've simplified it some.
TD#12 (#48)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 04:39PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWWNQSTNTV*)

Hello All,
The latest satellite still shows some type of circulation but the center of this circulation has become clouded over so its harder to see. I do see clouds to the southwest moving northeast and clouds to the southeast moving northwest and clouds to the northeast moving southwest but I don't see clouds to the northwest moving southeast so I'm not sure if its a closed circulation yet and thats the 30 million dolar question
Tropical Development Update (#49)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 05:00PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWWNQSTNTV*)

Hello All,
Well the latest reports are showing we have only low level circulation in the Gulf and northeast carribean no surface circulation. We also have a strong easterly wind at about 50 knots approaching from the east in the carribean which may stop any development of this wave so for now just wait and see again...
Developement? (#50)
Posted by: Alex
Posted On 05:07PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNRQPNRQTNS*)

Does anyone know if the nhc upgraded either of the 2 lows as of the 5 pm eastern time advisory?
Re: Alex (#51)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 05:16PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQUT*)

No, they did not....

Colleen
Too early (#52)
Posted by: Kim Location: Baton Rouge
Posted On 05:32PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPWNQYQNVWNQQT*)

Wanted to say that I really enjoy this site! The observations are great! Is it too early to be concerned about the blow-up in the BOC? Thanks!
SHIP REPORTS FROM CARRIBEAN (#53)
Posted by: Richie Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Posted On 06:37PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNQYQ*)

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
325 PM EDT TUE SEP 19 2000

CURRENT TRENDS...
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPING SHOWS LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE AREA...NOW ALREADY OVER
THE STRAITS AND CLOSING IN ON THE KEYS. THE CONVECTION...AND WINDS
TOO...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS MOST INTENSE OVER AND SOUTH OF
CUBA...AND THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE ACTIVITY (THAT IS THE BACK
EDGE) IS ALSO MORE EXTENSIVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. AT THIS MOMENT...THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS THAT IS AFFECTING THE KEYS...SHOWS
A MORE NARROW WIDTH...WITH EASTERN EDGE NOW PASSING OVER ANDROS
ISLAND. MEANWHILE...WIND OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS STRONGEST AT AND TO
THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. SHIP ELVO3...OFF NORTH COAST OF CENTRAL
CUBA...REPORTED ESE WINDS NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS 8 FT THIS MORNING...EAST
OF THE WAVE AXIS. AND EVEN FARTHER EAST JUST OFF THE SE BAHAMAS...
SHIP 4XGS HAD WINDS E 28 KT AND HIGH SEAS. THUS...PROLONGED HIGHER
WINDS AFTER WAVE PASSAGE IS THE CURRENT PATTERN...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
WINDS EVEN EAST OF THE ENHANCED SHOWER AREA.

I wonder who is flying these recons??? (#54)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 06:48PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRSNQXUNQUU*)

does he know where to fly to find that circulation
in the carribean??or is he just site seeing
LOL Scott!! (#55)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 07:12PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNRPY*)

That is funny, as I have said before I think Mr.Magoo is flying them. The TWO forecaster seems to either a)not have seen the easterlies mentioned by Dr. Lyons' that would inhibit development of this wave or b)they aren't there and Dr. Lyons' is confused.

I must say, this season has been strange, and apparantly will stay that way until November. I, for one, will be glad when they start predicting snow for Florida. The way things are going this year, who WOULDN'T believe them?

See ya!! Colleen
Tropical Storm Warning (#56)
Posted by: Richard Byett (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 07:33PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNSSNQQV*)

Just a quick note to say a TS Warning is already in effect for Western tip of Cuba on my site
colleen/scottsvb (#57)
Posted by: Bruce Location: Palm Bay Florida
Posted On 07:38PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNQXY*)

I quess the NHC read your post
TD12 HAS REFORMED (#58)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 07:40PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (VSNSYNSVNST*)

TD 12 has formed as of 7pm eastern,,i have posted on my site the details of this,,please go there to get the latest info,,,scottsvb
A note (#59)
Posted by: Mike (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA (Currently)
Posted On 07:55PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRNUSNVY*)

I'm back. Wasn't by choice that I was gone. I was out two days longer than expected because my vehicle broke down near Martinsville, VA.

Lots to do tonight other than the page, so updates probably won't continue until tomorrow. Thanks to John for handling the page while I was gone, and to everyone else for keeping it going while I was away.

- mac
Show All Comments

Return to Central Florida Hurricane Center Main Page