CFHC Talkback For News Story #105:
Newest Talkback: 03:58 AM 09-21 EDT

TD#12 Nearly Gone
01:21 PM EDT - 20 September 2000

Still barely holding on (and arguably at that), Tropical Depression #12 is moving into the Southeast Gulf of Mexico. This time the Northern Gulf coast looks like the likely place. If it strengthens, I don't expect much more than a tropical storm. If not, it'll break apart and still cause a good deal of rain.

Outside of TD#12, nothing imminent is out there.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for TD#12. From Michael Bryson.

Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop
A nice animated Water Vapor Image
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)
StormCarib.com has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean.
Ouragans.com Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens.
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.

Satellite images at: [NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

Show All Comments | Show Previous 22 Comments
Displaying Talkbacks #5 - #25 (of 25 total)
TD and NEW circulation (#5)
Posted by: Steve h.
Posted On 04:03PM 20-Sep-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

Agree Frank and L.T. Looks like deep convection firing up. No reason, at least for the next 36 hours, why this shouldn't crank up a bit....but who knows. Direction is not clear cut either. Should development occur and it's northward motion slow, as it appears to have in the last few frames, than it could threaten the FLorida west coast as a front approaches and stalls at the FL/GA border. Everyone from Mobile to Ft. Myers should check on it. Anyone see the circulaiton developing at about 38W/15N? Looks like it could be trouble for the islands if what i'm seeing is correct...must be leftovers stirring up from the old wave. Cheer!!
Doesn't Look Dead to Me (#6)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:13PM 20-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNQUR*)

What I have been seeing all day does not look like a "dead" storm at all. Anyone hear anything about latest recon info? Can't seem to find anything...being over Cuba, I would think it would be most difficult to get a plane in there (thanks Fidel, you moron!) to get an accurate position of a llcc if there was one. It may be weak, but it sure ain't dead.
T# Information (#7)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:19PM 20-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNQUR*)

Here's your dead storm:

188

TPNT KGWC 201810

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE

B. 20/1645Z (118)

C. 22.1N/5

D. 85.0W/3

E. FIVE/GOES8

F. T1.5/1.5/S0.0 22HRS 20/1645Z

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI


40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL.

SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE MORE ORGANIZED THAN EARLIER THIS MORNING.

FINAL T BASED ON DT AND PT.


RECON AND INFO (#8)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 04:22PM 20-Sep-2000 with id (VSNSYNSWNQPY*)

recon is currently in the system,,,,earlier the recon this morning has a hard time placing a center as it flaculated between a closed low and trough due to the speed,,this is why the recon info is not listed,,unless they find a center of circulation.
The td is getting better organinzed and might be a TS soon,but i doubt at 5pm until the next recon,,the systems future will be determined tonight by strength and path,,,,,in general,,its slowing down a tad,,,,and a path to the n is going to happen later this evening or tonight and a turn ne later thursday or that evening,,,land fall will be from mbile to cedar key again,,wiht winds near 50mph,,but alittle weaker or stronger could happen,,,but lets see what happens tonight with the convection and pressure and also to see if it slows,,then direction will turn more e.
scottsvb
ps..are they still doing experiments this year trying to weaken hurricanes
Deja vu all over again.... (#9)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 05:08PM 20-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

That T report looks just like one on Gordon. The pressure dropped 2 mb since last advisory, system is better organized, good/developing outflow N, E, s, developing to the west.

Look just like Gordon did before the bottom dropped out...stay tuned.

IHS,

Bill
Storm Seeding (#10)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay FL
Posted On 05:21PM 20-Sep-2000 with id (VTNQRNQPUNQVR*)

I'll tell you what Scottsvb, the thought has crossed my mind several time this season, just by the way these storms die when conditions are seemingly ideal. Maybe our Hurricane hunters are doing overtime. Agree with you on this....if it slows could come in south of Cedar Key. Recon earlier wasn't too impressed, but if it continues to build, we could see a hurricane in 36-48 hours. Some other areas of interest out there as well in the atlantic. It ain't over til it's over folks. Cheers!!
Exciting (#11)
Posted by: Bill Location: pensacola
Posted On 05:22PM 20-Sep-2000 with id (RPXNQWPNQUXNQV*)

Just wanted to say that I enjoy reading every ones messages on the storm status. You all seem to know what your talking about, which is why I usually turn to these messages for the latest. Thanks!!
TD #12 Looking good on latest visible (#12)
Posted by: Gary Location: Los Angeles, CA
Posted On 06:50PM 20-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRUUNSVNQRY*)

TD #12 is looking like it's really coming together right now. However, unless the low level circulation gets it's act together the convection is likely to decrease as the night progresses.
more predictions (#13)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 08:50PM 20-Sep-2000 with id (VSNTRNQTQNVW*)

My prediction is that the depression in the Gulf will eventually become a weak TS before landfall between Pensacola and New Orleans, bringing heavy rain. I think that the wave coming off Africa right now will become TD 13 late tommorrow. Right know it looks fairly strong. It has a big area of deep convection and the tropical surface analysys showed a 1007 millibar low.
TD 12 slowly getting better org. (#14)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 09:16PM 20-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRSNQXUNUV*)

latest pressure i found was 1006-1007mb,,winds are
around 35-40mph to the n and e of center.
A important note on this,,,the system is slowing more and more,,now moving nnw near 14mph. A turn to the n and nne should happen late tonight and ne by afternoon. With the slow down,the system has and is getting a chance to become better organinzed and TS watches or warnings might go up
later tonight or by predawn hours,....
scottsvb
Thanks, Scott (#15)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 09:25PM 20-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNUX*)

Good info,as always!!! Like I said, I didn't think it was "dead" by any means..although, I could be wrong by the morning, at least I was right for today!!!

That's a positive checkmark next to my name!!!

LOL!

Colleen
heading for buoy (#16)
Posted by: Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 09:34PM 20-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNQWW*)

TD 12 is heading in the general direction of ndbc data buoy 42054 (26N 87.7W) so we should be able to get some decent data on what it is or isn't doing as it approaches, pending of course it stays on a nw course...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.phtml?$station=42054


ScottSVB (#17)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 09:53PM 20-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNRR*)

Scott, with the slowing of this tropical system, will it turn to the NE earlier at a lower latitude? I realize that the real cold front is forecast to move into the SE Sunday night or Monday, but is there a front coming in prior to that on Friday, and what effect do you think it may have on the system.. earlier my thoughts were that if it slowed it had a better chance of heading more to the NE or even ENE. Is this still a valid scenario IYO? Been out this evening haven't had a chace to check the laatest forecasts. thoughts? Cheers!!
SCOTT (#18)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 09:55PM 20-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNUX*)

Can you tell me where you got the pressure info? Just curious...please let me know asap. Thanks again!!!
TD #12 Eyewall? (#19)
Posted by: Gary Location: Los Angeles, CA
Posted On 10:09PM 20-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRUUNRTNQXX*)

The latest IR image is showing what appears to be a developing "eye". There's deep convection wrapping around the low pressure area. Check out this site: http://kauai.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/tc_home
Yeah, This one is definitely worth watching (#20)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 10:16PM 20-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNUX*)

Let's see what 11pm brings us..TS Helene..

Guess it didn't die, huh?
Take a look at this (#21)
Posted by: Jim F. (http://flhurricane.com/jfaul/) Location: Ft. Lauderdale
Posted On 10:17PM 20-Sep-2000 with id (RPXNVQNQQTNQVQ*)

Take a look at this loop from Miami...http://www.intellicast.com/LocalWeather/World/UnitedStates/Southeast/Florida/Miami/RadarLoop/

This is very bizarre..its like the whole atmosphere over sofla changed in an hour as far as direction. I don't know if it has anything to do with our sytem or what but i have seen a million radar loops from here and nothing quite like this.
Eye (#22)
Posted by: Darcy Location: Ontario, Canada
Posted On 10:19PM 20-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNTXNQRSNXW*)

I see that 'eye' on that satellite. That looks really interesting!
it should be a TS now. Check at 11:00!


just a quick note here (#23)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 10:56PM 20-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRSNQXXNQPT*)

there is no eye or eyewall the system is way too
weak for that,,,also i think the nhc is alittle lazy on this system tonight,,,,colleen fsu metro site....the system is more organized than what the nhc is reporting late this evening
I Agree, Scott (#24)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 11:25PM 20-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYUNRPS*)

Well, I think they are being a little lazy, also; however, maybe they are just waiting to see (again) if it holds it's own during the night, unlike last night. It's much more organized than it was a 5pm, and they are basically just saying the same thing. I guess we will see in the morning, huh?

Colleen
NHC's Advisory (#25)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 11:58PM 20-Sep-2000 with id (QRYNQQUNUSNYW*)

Their stance is based on a combination of ship reports, buoy reports, recon, satellite estimates, and persistence. I agree with their analysis; they are far more qualified to make their statements than I.

The wave off Africa looks interesting...but so did the previous low, which slowly fell apart over a day or so. Even if it develops, that trough in the central Atlantic doesn't look like it's going anywhere; just about every C.V. system that's formed this late has either recurved in the middle of nowhwere (Ivan and Jeanne in '98), or been sheared to death (Pablo in '95).
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