CFHC Talkback For News Story #106:
Newest Talkback: 01:22 PM 09-21 EDT

TD#12 Stays Together
10:49 PM EDT - 20 September 2000

TD#12 fought off its troubles and now threatens to become a Tropical Storm. It is now moving northward in the Gulf, and is looking much much better than it did this morning. The storm now presents itself as a threat to the Central to Northeast Gulf coast.

It could strengthen a bit more, too. So folks along the coast here should be watching it very closely. This includes folks in Alabama and the Panhandle of Florida. Since many of the models bring it to this area.

I'm not expecting it to get very strong, but I can be wrong. If the strengthening persists through the night, it could become a hurricane before landfall. So we'll be watching it. Otherwise, the wave off the coast of Africa could form over the next few days if it persists.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for TD#12. From Michael Bryson.

Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop
A nice animated Water Vapor Image
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)
StormCarib.com has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean.
Ouragans.com Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens.
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.

Satellite images at: [NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #13 (of 13 total)
Two Cents Worth (#1)
Posted by: Ed Dunham Location: Melbourne, FL
Posted On 11:29PM 20-Sep-2000 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNQYP*)

Might as well throw my hat in the ring. I think that the TD has gone about as far west as its going to go. I'd expect Helene by 11am tomorrow with the start of a slow turn - probably around 25N 86W by 12Z. Landfall as a moderate TS in the wee hours Friday morning - could be as far south as Venice with exit mid-day Friday near Merritt Island. Steering currents are quite weak, so nothing should happen too quickly until the front starts to pull it out to the northeast. Outflow has slowly started to improve. This system has had a history of falling apart at night and rebuilding during the day - but not so tonight - at least not yet. It seems a bit stronger than the advisories indicate. Having stuck my neck out, and with consideration for my skill-score so far this year, if you live in Lake Charles, you'd better duck!
Cheers,
ED
tropical storm...maybe (#2)
Posted by: Rick Location: Mobile, Alabama
Posted On 11:38PM 20-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNST*)

Okay...I'm excited now...a chance for a baby hurricane. Unless they are category three or stronger, there really isn't much to them. And I am speaking from experience. However, it will be interesting to see where this one goes. This year has been so wierd, I'm not willing to venture on anything. Wouldn't suprise me if it were to do something way beyond what anyone is expecting....If it developed into a two or three, it would sure suprise a lot of people, wouldn't it?....
WOW (#3)
Posted by: L.T. (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/SAB/TROP/DATA/img/GMEXIR4.html) Location: Pensacola, FL
Posted On 12:17AM 21-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNUQ*)

check out web site above, AMAZING!!!!! This is a TS!!!!!!!!!!
ere morning.. (#4)
Posted by: Frank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 01:06AM 21-Sep-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)

sucker looks good again, but how many times has it done this to us? tomorrow morning, maybe helene, but after that its too far north, playing in the westerlies. watch those central gulf buoys for pressure falls and wind shifts. sorry, but thinking of those folks talking about this thing being another camille last night.. *laughs uncontrollably*. we may not have seen the full wrath of tropical depression twelve yet! *remembers personal experience with t.s. alberto and face straightens* okay, and i WAS thinking of hurricane parties the other night, so sue me. have a good one everybody.
TD12 - yawn... TD13 - yow! (#5)
Posted by: Buffo Location: Chasn, SC
Posted On 01:12AM 21-Sep-2000 with id (QRNSTNQYNRTY*)

I'll admit TD12 is looking better, but given the trouble it's had in developing a closed circulation I really don't see it getting much stronger. (Read: Just barely TS strength - if that - before landfall.) Still, lots of rain with this one.

However, there is another system that has a lot more potential. (albeit not in the immediate future) Have a look at the system near 11N, 22W just off the African coast. This one should be interesting to watch. My guess is it will be TD13 by Friday.

Comments?
Development (#6)
Posted by: Tom
Posted On 07:53AM 21-Sep-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

I'm seeing development... I believe that we will have a storm at 11:00 and a new depression in the eastern atlantic. Is this the one that is going to make the trip across the atlantic, or will it go by the waste side like all the others.
A Couple of Questions (#7)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 08:49AM 21-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNRPW*)

Ok folks, this is just an observation. Looking at the latest IR loops, I noticed 2 things: 1)if you look towards the convection near Texas, in the earlier loops it looked like it was heading towards the coast, now it looks as though it is being pushed more towards the east and away from the coast. Then, if you look more towards the west, you can see the moisture coming in from the WC of the US and see it moving in an easterly fashion. What is this? Is this nothing, or is it a setup for things to come? 2) Have you noticed that big black blob in the middle of TD#12? Is that just a dark spot, or would that be me seeing the surface of the ocean?

Just wondering if I am seeing things. Comments, please!!!!!


buoy (#8)
Posted by: Frank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 09:08AM 21-Sep-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)

im wondering if two things are correct now. on a surface plot i noticed a wnw wind at 30 kt from a buoy (the eastern one), and this buoy seems a bit east of where the center is supposed to be.. both the position, speed, and the intensity seem to have changed unless this reading is bogus or just a transient feature. the next advisory is only a couple hours away, and theres the recon later.. guess we'll find out then. cape verde system doesnt look half bad either, maybe a shade better than the gulf depression.
time to tackle thursday, later folks.
We have a TS! (#9)
Posted by: Jim F. (http://flhurricane.com/~jfaul) Location: Ft. Lauderdale
Posted On 09:09AM 21-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNSQNXRNQQY*)

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HELENE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
800 AM CDT THU SEP 21 2000

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE HAS STRENGTHENED TO TROPICAL STORM
HELENE WITH 45 MPH WINDS. A FULL ADVISORY WITH TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF
COASTS WILL FOLLOW AT 10 AM CDT
T#s (#10)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 09:11AM 21-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQYP*)

Look at this:

TPNT KGWC 211220

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE

B. 21/1115Z (115)

C. 24.6N/2

D. 86.5W/9

E. FIVE/GOES8

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0 18HRS -21/1115Z-



38A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPS .50 ON LOG10 SPIRAL. FINAL

T BASED ON DT AND PT.

The original position was 25.1N/87.1W...has it moved more east? Comments!!!
Direction and coordinates? (#11)
Posted by: Gerry Location: Venice Fl
Posted On 09:17AM 21-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRXNQWXNRX*)

Jim,

Any direction and or coordinates on TS Helene??
S and E (#12)
Posted by: Jim F. (http://flhurricane.com/~jfaul) Location: Ft. Lauderdale
Posted On 09:19AM 21-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNSQNXRNQQY*)

According to those numbers the center has relocated South and East and the loops confirm exactly that..probably just some reorganization in a strenghning phase but nonethe less it will cnage initializatios of models, etc.


location on Helene (#13)
Posted by: Bruce Location: Palm Bay Florida
Posted On 09:22AM 21-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQWR*)

it hasnt moved more east, I think It was repositioned. Thats what I heard anyway
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