CFHC Talkback For News Story #113:
Newest Talkback: 07:37 PM 10-09 EDT

Caribbean
07:00 PM EDT - 24 September 1999

We're watching the system in the Caribbean. Sorry about the lack of updates, but it will be slow again for a period.


- [jc]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #15 (of 15 total)
Caribbean development? (#1)
Posted by: Bill
Posted On 01:50PM 29-Sep-1999 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNUQ*)

here we go for round two (in the last two weeks) of potential carib development. Heights are lowering, lots of convection. Any thoughts?

IHS,

Bill
Caribbean Question (#2)
Posted by: Mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 05:59AM 01-Oct-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVRNQQU*)

It looks like another rain event to me. The weather just has not been conducive to storm formation since Floyd and Dennis cleared the air. Gert of Course stirred things up in the ATlantic and so the ridges necessary for additional storm formation just didnt hold. I hope no one believes that I completely know what I am talking about but, this is my guess, we could get one more storm from the gulf but I am not sure the Caribbean will recover enough before the cooler weather gets here this year, since they are already getting snow in Denver.
Caribbean-Slowly I Turn... (#3)
Posted by: Steve Hirschberger Location: Palm Bay FL
Posted On 10:28PM 01-Oct-1999 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNQXQ*)

Things in the Caribbean are slowly coming together---maybe, but it looks like the same disorganized pattern of convection we had in June when we thought the hurricane season was gettting off to a quick start. However, I think we'll have a Depression in or near the Yucatan channel sometime tomorrow. Models also develop the system in the eastern caribbean over time, somewhere near the Domincan Republic.....but this is also TBD. A large area of convection that looks interesting is also moving west well east of the windwards. With not a lot to talk about during the past week, it seems that we could have a couple of cyclones brewing soon. The recon flight that investigating the low south of Cuba found no closed circulation , but the latest satellite pictures show some deep convection coming up from the SW towards the "center"of the AOI. PS: I know its been slow in the tropics, but where the heck is everyone?
Where is everyone? (#4)
Posted by: Mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 07:08AM 02-Oct-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVRNWR*)

I for one am trying not to hit the site too often because it got bumped before because it was too busy or something, But I do check in for updates each day. I am mostly a lurker unless there is iminent danger and then most of the time the web is too busy to get on. Go figure!
Anyboy here seen my ole friend the Cornelius Brothers? (#5)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland
Posted On 10:36AM 02-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNRX*)

Who's got them
TROPICAL ATLANTIC READY TO POP (#6)
Posted by: Mike Anderson (http://www.fortunecity/greenfield/tigris/622/weather/ectwp.htm)
Posted On 11:21AM 02-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNRW*)

Good morning weather buff's, are you all ready for the last run in the 99 hurricane season, well ready or not it's on it's way. tropical disturbance south of cuba looks like it is getting ready to close off a low and im expecting that to happen in the next few days, most guidance takes the system to the wnw but in time it will bend back to the east, this system has the potential to be major and note im saying potential, along with that im sure we will be looking at IRENE, also sst's have not cooled as of yet and we could see more well into the month, like aircraft in line waiting for there turn to come off the runway, ill be back later to post more on this new system for now thats it, also i have put a new comment system on my web page much like this one so feel free to also post in the ECTWP web site as i miss hearing all your comments. Mike Anderson Florida WX
sorry about the site (#7)
Posted by: Mike Anderson Location: http://www.fortunecity.com/greenfield/tigris/622/weather/ectwp.htm
Posted On 07:35PM 02-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNRV*)

I messed up again lol sorry about the site here it is again. Mike Anderson FloridaWx
Disturbance heading west? (#8)
Posted by: Steve Hirscberger Location: Palm Bay Fl
Posted On 10:15PM 02-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNUY*)

Seems like on the latest satellite loops that the well organized system in the NW Caribbean isn't very well organized any more, with the strong convection breaking off from the low and heading NNE, and the low heading west across the Yucatan. Is this temporary, or is the low heading off to Mexico? thoughts?
Gulf vortex (#9)
Posted by: Robin Location: Melrose
Posted On 11:02AM 03-Oct-1999 with id (RPYNRQRNQSRNRPT*)

As to the last comment, if you will examine Wisconsin's loop images (linked to NTPC) you will note that while the convection appears less well-organized, it is also increasing dramatically in coverage. More significantly, the banded cloud pattern around the low appears to indicate even better circulation. I predict a tropical storm within 24 hours and a category 1 (but rather extensive) hurricane within 36 hrs. I have not checked the Hopkins site, but I doubt that SST's are sufficiently warm in the northern Gulf to energize a major hurricane. As to where it might head, I haven't a clue.
Gulf - System Reforming? (#10)
Posted by: Steve Hirschberger Location: Palm Bay FL
Posted On 01:54PM 03-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNRR*)

Yeah the circulation is getting better organized overall - in reference to the previous comment, the lack of organization noted was from last night's posting. It seems like the area in the bay of Campeche where the center looked like it was going to organize earlier is losing its punch, the last loops I've been looking at (on my computer, which is slow as mollasses in loading loops) seems to indicate that the focus for circulation wants to be further to the NE, north of Merida, Mx. This may still take another 12 hous or so though. This system may reposition itself many times before Irene emerges. But if the System develops in the central Gulf, rather than the SW Gulf, it may have a significant bearing on where this thing will go. Who knows, but that's my half-assed whack at it.
Disturbance in Gulf (#11)
Posted by: Mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 09:17PM 03-Oct-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVSNYU*)

Well everyone, here it is at 9:18, my pets are restless, the birds were still singing after dark and it is still a misting rain. My arthritis is acting up and the satellites and traditional weather models are not giving a clue as to what is happening. Anybody got a crystal Ball showing any thing new?
New TD OR NOT (#12)
Posted by: Steve Hirschberger Location: Palm Bay Fl
Posted On 10:49PM 03-Oct-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNUV*)

I see a new posting under storm spotlight for a new depression in the gulf and the news mentioned it. But the latest advisory from NHC doesn't recognize the new TD, its the same as the 5:30 advisory basically, with the area of lowest pressure forecast to move west into mexico. Looks like a spin north of the Yucation in the central gulf, with convection being sheared to the NE. Anyone alive out there
Gulf of Mexico (#13)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland
Posted On 08:59AM 04-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNTX*)

Hey, I noticed the same thing here about TD#11. The news just keeps saying a "disturbance". I have noticed this morning that the disturbance in the Central Gulf looks like it could form it's own low center. What does anyone else think? If anyone's out there. Steve? Mary? Mike?
Two Storms? (#14)
Posted by: Mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 09:30AM 04-Oct-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVRNRRR*)

As I mentioned on the other site. It looks like there are two distinct systems forming. I speculate that if the one closest to the Bay of Campeche goes inland and the other hangs around long enough to drop the pressures, we could see another system form but there may not be enough atmosphere for two of them but I would like to hear from the experts.
my chat room (#15)
Posted by: Micheal jordan Location: chicago
Posted On 03:37PM 09-Oct-1999 with id (QYUNTTNPNRRT*)

My chat room is http yahoo/chat/jordan.chat.com

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