CFHC Talkback For News Story #114:
Newest Talkback: 05:49 PM 09-28 EDT

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11:18 AM EDT - 25 September 2000

Isaac has weakened a bit again, as it goes through fluctuations. Still tracking to be a fish spinner, I can see no threat to land from Isaac. The system southeast of Isaac, however, is the canidate for next depression today.

The system in the Caribbean is going to have some trouble getting developed anytime soon, but it could later on.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.


NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for Isaac. From Michael Bryson.
Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #10 (of 10 total)
Isaac, un-named TD, and developing southwest Caribbean! (#1)
Posted by: Richard Byett (http://www.stormwarn2000.com) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 12:24PM 25-Sep-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNSRNQUQ*)

Well Isaac has now weakened slightly, as a result of increasing westerly shear. and his motion looks set to take him more out to see according to the forecast models, thereby saving the islands.
But of interest is how the models, especially the AVN, develop two other areas. The first is the area to the southeast of Isaac. I personally feel it is already a TD looking at available satellite imagery, and NHC say it could be a TD later today. But the AVN takes it on an uncomfortable heading. That model, and the GFDL, develop the system to a strong TS or minimal Hurricane in 72 hours, while keeping it on a westerly heading towards the islands. This area will need to be watched closely over the next day or two.
The models also develop the area over the southwest Caribbean. In fact they develop it quite significantly, especially the AVN. That model takes it very near to Nicaragua / Honduras, then over the western half of CUBA, heading NE towards the southern Florida peninsula. Indeed cloud patterns indicate this area may already be beginning to show some signs of organisation, and there is a low pressure area in the region.
A lot to watch!
Issac, carrib. disturbance, east atlantic system (#2)
Posted by: mark
Posted On 01:27PM 25-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRVNWTNRSU*)

just saw something interesting on goes 8 loop, Issac in last photo looks to have turned more to west. what about this, high pressure seems to be forming in Caribbean and low forming se of issac, this could influence direction of Issac.
Issac (#3)
Posted by: mark
Posted On 01:32PM 25-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRVNWTNRSU*)

also looked at twc atlantic photos, and may have been movement even south of due west.
Mark (#4)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 01:48PM 25-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQWS*)

I noticed that too earlier, will be interesting to see what happens.

anyone have indication of the size of the storm that is forecasted to develop in this Carribbean? As in relation to size of past storms, i.e., Mitch, Andrew, Hugo....you get my point...thanks for any help.
days to watch (#5)
Posted by: Frank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 02:34PM 25-Sep-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)

i dont think isaac will bother anyone, except maybe bermuda. the system to the southeast, which looks quite healthy, should get a more southerly path thanks to isaac. if it develops, it could threaten the islands. five days or so before whatever it becomes makes it that far. our sw caribbean system looks sloppy, a bit sheared. until the atmosphere eases it shouldnt get its act together. there is a hint of ridging, though it looks to be slightly east of where it would need to be to create a healthy storm environment. maybe it will build.. the nhc 24 hr forecast does call for a 1004 low east of nicaragua.. if that verifies things could get interesting. cant go with the avn forecast on this thing, avn always makes fake storms down there. by about wednesday we should have a better idea if that lil fellow is going to pay florida a visit as anything.
be interesting if we get joyce and keith before the month is out. thats our quota for the year, according to dr. gray. that would mean, probably a leslie later on. never had one of those.
yall take it easy.
Isaac Still moving WNW (#6)
Posted by: Brian
Posted On 03:30PM 25-Sep-2000 with id (QUYNQPXNSQNRUS*)

Saw the comments on Isaac moving more west or even slightly south of west. I looked at the latest IR and Visible satellite loops and don't see it. The center is still moving north of due west and hasn't varied much. This is especially evident on visible image. Looks like I. is about to encounter more shear, we'll see how it reacts.
Tropical Depresion 14 (#7)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 04:16PM 25-Sep-2000 with id (QYYNRRWNQSQNQXP*)

NRL page now has 14L.Noname up and its right behind issac it will be declared at the nhc at 5:00PM
Isaac (#8)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, Fl
Posted On 04:21PM 25-Sep-2000 with id (RQVNSNQXRNQQQ*)

I agree with Brian.I see no signs of it moving west or slightly south of do west it still looks to me that the center is heading WNW.And for the other systems in the tropics....There will we a 90-100% chance of devlopement with the system southeast of Isaac.This has the chance to effect the islands because it so far south.And last the system in the Caribbean we will have to wait and see if anything forms.... Joe
Isaac, TD#14, Caribbean (#9)
Posted by: Richard Byett (http://www.stormwarn2000.com) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 06:02PM 25-Sep-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNQXSNRPX*)

Isaac is still a good looking storm, and i see him being of no real threat to the islands now. He should meander about in the open Atlantic all his days, possibly being only a light threat to Bermuda.
Of much more of a threat is the new TD#14, set to be Joyce within 24 hours. It is a lot further south of Isaac, and is heading west. No northerly turn expected within 72 hours, by which time it is forecast to be at, or near Hurricane strength. This one will need watching closely!
And finally the Caribbean. Some models still insist on developing something there, but as yet there is little of any interest except a large area of disorganised convection. However, with a 1004mb low forecast to be in the area by tomoro things might begin to develop.
Incidentally, we look set to get the remnants of Helene here late on wednesday. Current forecasts are for a 984mb low to move in with gales and heavy, locally thundery rain.
Hurricane season (#10)
Posted by: Arlene Chanenchuk
Posted On 01:49PM 28-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYUNRPX*)

I would like to know when the hurricane season is over.
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