CFHC Talkback For News Story #118:
Newest Talkback: 02:41 AM 10-15 EDT

Hurricane Irene Forms South of Western Cuba
06:17 AM EDT - 14 October 1999

Although the future track is still somewhat debatable, signs indicate that it will effect us in Florida this weekend. There is already a hurricane Watch for the southern half of the Keys and for a good portion of western Cuba. We may see watches for the West Coast tomorrow.

How strong will Irene get and where will landfall be? This is open for discussion, and I'm not willing to comment yet. The storm is growing stronger now, but Cuba will impede it a bit. How much it does may be critical for us. We'll be watching.



For more information on Irene, NRL Monterey Tracking Site (Navy) -- Very nice forecast track graphics.
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
GFDL Model & Plot for Irene and for BAMB,BAMM, LBAR & A90E Models Irene
Irene Multiple Model Forecast Composite from Michael Bryson

Weather Channel Caribbean Sat Image
Intellicast Caribbean IR Loop
Intellicast Atlantic IR Loop

More Sat images: Storm Centered imagery.

[N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.


- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #6 (of 48 total)
Irene (#1)
Posted by: Robin (http://Usufruct.net) Location: Melrose, FL
Posted On 07:03AM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPYNRQRNQSRNQYW*)

I haven't reviewed the lastest forecast, but if Irene passes around the eastern end of the Sierra de los Organos it probably won't be impacted all that much by the island of Cuba as we are only speaking of a narrow land crossing of sixty to seventy miles in width. Of course if it passes to the west of the mountains there will be virtually no impact as that would mean practically no overland path. Even if it passes directly over the Sierra, I wonder if the effect will be all that great as we are not speaking of a high, solid wall of mountains, but rather of a broken chain of fairly low mountains to high hills. I know Pinar del Rio and the Organos are not impressive in terms of being a major physical obsticle (yet are among the most beautiful and other-worldly mountains I have ever seen anywhere. Any thoughts?
Irene's future (#2)
Posted by: jim williams (http://www.hurricanecity.com)
Posted On 08:03AM 14-Oct-1999 with id (QRNWWNQUVNXP*)

I dont think west cuba will hurt Irene at all,in fact I expect continued strengthening for the next 48 hrs as she could reach major hurricane by saturday morning.The fly in the ointment would be a cold front which before landfaLL COULD weaken her a bit before coming ashore just south of Tampa.(past hurricanes in this area have not lost strength)
stalling hurricane (#3)
Posted by: alan byrd
Posted On 08:12AM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPVNRVNRTYNSR*)

I may be one of the disbelievers, but I don't believe Central Florida will see much from this one.
Looking at the water vapor images now, it is hard to see any cold front coming in from the northwest. There is a big high pressure system just to the north of the gulf of mexico.
I have to believe that the NOGAPS models, which are the best in predicting fronts and hurricanes this season, has some accuracy to it. If you haven't seen it, the model pushes Irene slowly to the west and then back east again. She is nearly at the same place six days from now.
Sure enough as of the eight a.m. advisory, Irene has stalled. The question is how long. If she picks up again today, I'm wrong, but I don't see anything that would move her north, only west.
Irene (#4)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 08:14AM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQXV*)

Well, I agree about Cuba virtually having no impact on Irene. From what I can see, it is passing over the western portion and the NHC is saying that it is basically flat there, so they don't think it will really affect her. The other question is how much rain will this system produce? They are already expecting 5-10" in the southern portion of Florida and have issued a flood watch which will probably be extended northward tomorrow. If it stalls out over the open Gulf of Mexico, it could just become more intense as it sits over those warm waters. I think that will be a key issue also. Guess we will all find out!!! Colleen
The Models (#5)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 08:17AM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQXV*)

Alan - just one comment on the NOGAPS model: it also has Irene almost at the western tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. Most of the forecasters I have heard and or read say they are pretty much discarding the Nogaps model on this one. I guess we will wait and see what happens though. Not being argumentative, just posting what I read this morning.
nogaps arguement (#6)
Posted by: alan byrd
Posted On 09:21AM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPVNRVNRTYNSR*)

Colleen, I like people who are argumentative. It helps form the best opinion. That is the purpose of this talkback, so that us hurricane junkies can pretend to be weatherpeople and find out what others think about our thoughts. I know I don't have another outlet of people who are as interested in hurricanes as I am.
Anyway, in support of NOGAPS, they also disregarded it with Harvey because it said that Harvey would move south before making the turn. While NOGAPS was a little extreme on how far south, it was the ONLY model showing Harvey's turn to the south.
But besides Nogaps, I just don't see anything out there to move Irene any other way but west. If you do, show me where I can see it.
Thanks.
Irene (#7)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 09:33AM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQXV*)

Alan---Hey I like you!!! You're right, there is no other way for people like us to talk back and forth. As for the cold front, they really weren't expecting that to make much of an impact until later today when it starts to slide down from Canada..some of the forecast discussions I have read from Florida this morning (from the IWIN site) stated that this system would stall until the system moved further south and started to have an impact on it. I would agree with you on NOGAPS, but so many other models have it moving on the forecast track it's hard to discount those also. I guess we will just wait and see. I just looked at the local radar and there are already feeder bands coming in just below Vero Beach. Looks heavy, too.
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