CFHC Talkback For News Story #121:
Newest Talkback: 08:09 AM 09-30 EDT

Tropical Storm Keith Forms in Northwest Caribbean
02:38 PM EDT - 29 September 2000

8PM Update:
Keith is still drifting toward the Nortwest, Joyce is looking to head into the Caribbean Islands... It will be a busy next few days here at CFHC. Keith has the potential to be very strong, so it's the one to watch for us as it has a chance of affecting Florida later on. In fact, Hurricane Watches are already up on the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico.

Original Update:
According to the special update from the Hurricane Center, Keith is now a Tropical Storm. Hurricane Hunter aircraft in the area have found strong enough winds and a good circulation to make this possible. In the last few hours, Keith has started to look a lot better. At 5PM the first advisories for the new Tropical Storm will be out. There may be watches issued along the Northwest Caribbean.

Keith has remained stationary, and probably will for a while. I eventually think it will nudge northward, but long term all bets are off. Along with a slightly weakened Joyce, we'll have two potential threats to land to track over the next several days.

More to come later.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.


NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for Isaac., Joyce, or Keith From Michael Bryson.
Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Other commentary at: Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center - Stormwarn2000 - SCOTTSVB's Hurricane Update Center - Jim Williams' Hurricane City - Gary Gray's Millennium Weather - Even More on our Links Page
Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)
StormCarib.com has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean.
Ouragans.com Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens.
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.
Live Webcam image from Florida Emergency Management's Emergency Operations Center
Florida Emergency Management Activation Page / Situation Updates

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]


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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #1 (of 43 total)

KEITH (#1)
Posted by:
LONNY Location: HOLLYWOOD,FL
Posted On 02:54PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNQWX*)


THANKS FOR THE UPDATE. I CAN'T EVEN GET THAT FROM NHC HOME PAGE.YOU GUYS ARE GOOD.

Models On Keith (#2)
Posted by: Gary (
http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 03:04PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNTNTPNRPW*)



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.



NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL STORM FIFTEEN (AL1500) ON 20000929 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...

000929 1800 000930 0600 000930 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 17.4N 84.8W 18.0N 85.6W 18.6N 86.1W

BAMM 17.4N 84.8W 18.3N 85.6W 19.2N 86.0W

A90E 17.4N 84.8W 18.1N 85.7W 18.8N 86.3W

LBAR 17.4N 84.8W 18.4N 85.4W 19.8N 85.9W

SHIP 40KTS 52KTS 63KTS



...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...

001001 0600 001001 1800 001002 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 19.1N 86.4W 19.3N 86.7W 19.0N 87.6W

BAMM 19.8N 86.1W 20.2N 86.2W 20.4N 86.6W

A90E 19.4N 87.0W 19.8N 87.6W 21.1N 88.9W

LBAR 21.5N 86.2W 23.3N 86.1W 27.6N 84.4W

SHIP 72KTS 78KTS 87KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LAT0 = 17.4N LON0 = 84.8W DIR0 = 310DEG SPD0 = 6KT

LATM12 = 16.6N LONM12 = 83.6W DIRM12 = 310DEG SPDM12 = 6KT

LATM24 = 16.1N LONM24 = 82.9W

WND0 = 40KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 30KT

CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



NNNN



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