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CFHC Talkback For News Story #121: Newest Talkback: 08:09 AM 09-30 EDT

Tropical Storm Keith Forms in Northwest Caribbean
02:38 PM EDT - 29 September 2000

8PM Update:
Keith is still drifting toward the Nortwest, Joyce is looking to head into the Caribbean Islands... It will be a busy next few days here at CFHC. Keith has the potential to be very strong, so it's the one to watch for us as it has a chance of affecting Florida later on. In fact, Hurricane Watches are already up on the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico.

Original Update:
According to the special update from the Hurricane Center, Keith is now a Tropical Storm. Hurricane Hunter aircraft in the area have found strong enough winds and a good circulation to make this possible. In the last few hours, Keith has started to look a lot better. At 5PM the first advisories for the new Tropical Storm will be out. There may be watches issued along the Northwest Caribbean.

Keith has remained stationary, and probably will for a while. I eventually think it will nudge northward, but long term all bets are off. Along with a slightly weakened Joyce, we'll have two potential threats to land to track over the next several days.

More to come later.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for Isaac., Joyce, or Keith From Michael Bryson.
Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Other commentary at: Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center - Stormwarn2000 - SCOTTSVB's Hurricane Update Center - Jim Williams' Hurricane City - Gary Gray's Millennium Weather - Even More on our Links Page

Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at: [NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)
StormCarib.com has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean.
Ouragans.com Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens.
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.
Live Webcam image from Florida Emergency Management's Emergency Operations Center
Florida Emergency Management Activation Page / Situation Updates

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

Show All Comments

Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #43 (of 43 total)

KEITH (#1)
Posted by: LONNY Location: HOLLYWOOD,FL
Posted On 02:54PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNQWX*)

THANKS FOR THE UPDATE. I CAN'T EVEN GET THAT FROM NHC HOME PAGE.YOU GUYS ARE GOOD.

Models On Keith (#2)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 03:04PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNTNTPNRPW*)

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM FIFTEEN (AL1500) ON 20000929 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...

000929 1800 000930 0600 000930 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 17.4N 84.8W 18.0N 85.6W 18.6N 86.1W

BAMM 17.4N 84.8W 18.3N 85.6W 19.2N 86.0W

A90E 17.4N 84.8W 18.1N 85.7W 18.8N 86.3W

LBAR 17.4N 84.8W 18.4N 85.4W 19.8N 85.9W

SHIP 40KTS 52KTS 63KTS

...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...

001001 0600 001001 1800 001002 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 19.1N 86.4W 19.3N 86.7W 19.0N 87.6W

BAMM 19.8N 86.1W 20.2N 86.2W 20.4N 86.6W

A90E 19.4N 87.0W 19.8N 87.6W 21.1N 88.9W

LBAR 21.5N 86.2W 23.3N 86.1W 27.6N 84.4W

SHIP 72KTS 78KTS 87KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LAT0 = 17.4N LON0 = 84.8W DIR0 = 310DEG SPD0 = 6KT

LATM12 = 16.6N LONM12 = 83.6W DIRM12 = 310DEG SPDM12 = 6KT

LATM24 = 16.1N LONM24 = 82.9W

WND0 = 40KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 30KT

CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

NNNN

Keith (#3)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, Fl
Posted On 03:05PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (RQVNSNQXRNQQR*)

Looks like we have Keith in Northwest Caribbean.

Yes, We Do!! (#4)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 03:11PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNRPQ*)

Is it odd that they would update it at 2:30pm in the afternoon when it seems as if it is not all that close in proximity to Florida at this time? It seems odd to me. May be it's normal...also, Florida Emergency Management has gone from Phase I (monitoring) to Phase II (partial activation) today. That in itself is very strange and foreboding to me....any comments?

Not odd.... (#5)
Posted by: Jim F. (http://flhurricane.com/~jfaul) Location: Ft. Lauderdale
Posted On 03:19PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNSQNXRNQQY*)

They gave an update because they have a plane in their right now and they found tropical storm force winds.

Discussions et. all (#6)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA (Currently)
Posted On 03:41PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNRTVNRRPNRUP*)

I put up the Florida Forecast discussions again on the pop up advisories because they are now talking about Keith. (Read the Keys, Miami, and Melbourne!)

Also I added the link to the FEOC back too. When I said all bets are off in the story, I meant it. We'll be watching Keith very closely.

- mac

Latest on Keith (#7)
Posted by: clyde w. Location: orlando
Posted On 03:42PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (VSNWSNRQSNU*)

17.4N
84.8W

Winds 45kts
Pressure 1000mb (4mb drop in 18 hours).

Does anyone have any long range ideas for this storm? Does it move NW toward the Central Gulf, or NE toward Florida

Keith (#8)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:06PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQUY*)

I would say NE towards Florida. Just a hunch...that's all.

FDEM Alert status (#9)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 04:29PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Coleen-

FDEM has been at level 2 all week due to the folowup re: TS Helene. Also, their format is as follows:

Level 3- monitoring
Level 2- limited activation
Level 1- Full Activation

ti used to be the other way around with a level 4= federal forces present, but that all has been changed.

IHS,

Bill

Lastest GFDL (#10)
Posted by: Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 04:33PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (QRNQSNRTXNS*)

Lastest GFDL model run has it going to New Orleans in 126 hours....

Thanks Bill (#11)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:37PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQUY*)

Thanks, Bill. I know what the monitoring stages meant. Didn't know it had been at level 2 all week.

Strengthening Keith (#12)
Posted by: Robert Location: West Palm Beach
Posted On 04:49PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNUS*)

WOW. Pressure down to 995 and 50 mph winds.

joyce eating dyna gel filled donuts? (#13)
Posted by: troy (http://www.surfinfo.com/html/nwswave.html)
Posted On 04:49PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (VSNQVNTVNUT*)

loks like joyce is at 60mph winds now. maybe it is dyna gel..:)

or as i have often though...Steve Lyons is an alien..and controls the weather. Look at him closely next time.you will see it too. lol

On a more sane note. Surfers well the swell from isaac is starting to show, but, the ne winds from the pressure gradient from the front and high pressure is chopping it up bad.

Keith may be the one to watch fo the Florida folks...

Comment on Keith's possible intensity (#14)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 05:37PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (QRYNQQUNUUNQPS*)

I've been impressed by Keith's steady increase in organization from this morning to now (4:30 CDT). Given that:
--shear is low
--SSTs are very warm (and the thermocline is deep)
--upper-level divergence is good
--the storm is embedded in a humid mid to upper-level environment

--there's a significant, but by no means certain, possibility that Keith may strengthen more rapidly than forecast. I'll spare myself, though, and not make any comments about its likely peak intensity. Also keep in mind that several storms this year have failed to thrive even under seemingly optimal conditions; Keith may be one of these.

anyone? (#15)
Posted by: ngdsol
Posted On 05:58PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNXQ*)

can someone tell us where they think keith will go long term and why.

no offense colleen but you think everything is coming to florida without any real reason...sorry

low off of florida? (#16)
Posted by: troy (http://www.surfinfo.com/html/nwswave.html)
Posted On 05:59PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (VSNQVNTVNUT*)

has anyone noticed the low the avn 00z run puts off of the se??
the lin below is at 60 hrs but the 54 run shows it forming and the 72 has it there as well.

http://www.essc.psu.edu/rhart-cgi-bin/avntc2.cgi?time=2000092900&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=66hr

check it out and see what ya think.
an interesting note: on wed night thur morn parts of brevard county recieved up to 9 inches of rain in about 12 hours( wheres the silver iodine/dyna- gel rocket when ya need it?) . The radar loop from that period and up to about 11am thur morning showed a bit of rotation to the rain mass. This was along what was and still is the frontal boundary.

would be intersting if a low did develope here. its happened before. those late fall systems love to do that.

troy

Keith/Joyce (#17)
Posted by: Bruce Location: Palm Bay Florida
Posted On 06:00PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNQS*)

I have noticed that at about 25N the winds are pushing the clouds over central Fla. Will this make Keith take a more NE turn when he hits that area? Also it looks like Joyce is getting her act back together, what inpact will Keith have on Joyces track? Any comments would be great on this.

Ngdsol (#18)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 06:12PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNRPQ*)

I won't take offense to your comment...I do the research and look at the models and plot them out. Did I say Isaac was coming here? Did I say Alberto was coming here? or Beryl? I did say Gordon and Helene were coming and they did. Debby would have been here, except for wind shear. I guess time will tell where it will go, and if it doesn't come to Florida GREAT...if it does, than I was right in my readings of the models. Enough said...

thank you (#19)
Posted by: ngdsol
Posted On 06:15PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNXQ*)

thank you...i greatly respect your opinion on tropical cyclones. tell me what you think long term on keith

Respect (#20)
Posted by: Ken
Posted On 06:24PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQRYNPNQSQ*)

I really enjoy reading this site, look forward to its updates and rarely offer comments. However, lately this site has had to many writers challenging one another or out right critism. May I suggest that individually directed comments and forecasting that lacks a scientific approach be carried on in individual chat rooms. We can all benefit and learn from healthly conversation about storms and I am certain most of us would appreciate commentary that is germain to this site versus attacking some other person. And by the way Colleen, this is not directed at you.

no disrespect intended (#21)
Posted by: ngdsol
Posted On 06:27PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNXQ*)

i apologize and respect you all on this sight...sorry again

Thank You, Ken (#22)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 06:36PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNQVW*)

I appreciate that. And you're right, it is getting a bit testy in here lately. Maybe we all need to take a step back and breath. I don't claim to be a meteorologist because I am not one, but there are certain things to look for that would lead you to believe a storm would be heading a certain way: troughs, upper level wind flow, favorable SST's and climatology. All I do is find the information and post the best I can with it. I track it, I plot it, I read the models (which by the way, have the information input by human beings, which can result in error in forecasting) but most of all, I look at whats going on in the atmosphere..think I will stay out of this room for a few days, just because 1)I caused some flack the other day, which I apologized for and 2) I am tired of everyone ripping people to shreds for posting their views. It's getting to the point where we are arguing amongst ourselves, not looking at the storms anymore.

colleen

Respect (#23)
Posted by: Ken
Posted On 06:40PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQRYNPNQSQ*)

I really enjoy reading this site, look forward to its updates and rarely offer comments. However, lately this site has had to many writers challenging one another or out right critism. May I suggest that individually directed comments and forecasting that lacks a scientific approach be carried on in individual chat rooms. We can all benefit and learn from healthly conversation about storms and I am certain most of us would appreciate commentary that is germain to this site versus attacking some other person. And by the way Colleen, this is not directed at you.

Not just to Colleen (#24)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 07:15PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)

Most of the people that post on this site are scientists and even through not professional they open them selves to criticism It's just the way it is, don't take it personal and stop posting. Many people read and never post or question, they are like me, have fun but learn. Don't be afraid to go out on a limb- this is not a official weather source- but I am proud of the skill that most of you have. now back to what's really important, the weather, that's why we are all here.

Tropical Storm Keith (#25)
Posted by: Mike Anderson (http://www.angelfire.com/fl4/eastcoasttropicalwea/ectwp.htm) Location: Miami Florida
Posted On 07:32PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNQYR*)

It's been rather a long time since I posted a message on this board so I thought I would post on Keith since I feel most of you will get to meet him first hand in the coming days ahead.

Tropical storm Keith is banding well tonight and as the core of this developing system heads further away from Honduras the western quadrant will surly fill in, a very slow NNW component remains the motion tonight with the cyclone, this is due to the weak DM Mean Ridge located to the north of the system.

Down stream as the system heads to the North it will encounter the trough that is hanging along the Gulf Coastal states, this trough is showing Much Amplification through the 78 H. period as I expect Global Track models to show the same responding to a major shift to the right.

It is my belief that that Keith will deepen significantly during the next few days and head to the North East in response to this trough, as long as the trough hangs out along the gulf coast chances are much higher that the system will be deflected to the right and not allowed any further North of 20.

For what its worth (#26)
Posted by: Bruce Location: Palm Bay Florida
Posted On 08:26PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNQS*)

I think we all should respect everyone prediction on the track of these storms. Living in Florida since the early 60's, I can't tell you how many times I have been warned to leave my home because the experts thought this was going to be the one to hit us. In most cases it turned out to be a false alarm. I can only think of three times that the Experts had it right on the money. These storms are like a rubber ducky in the bathtub. I also have learned that the NHC forecast changes every six hours, based on the latest location of these storms. Some of us will be right and some of us will be wrong on where a storm will end up. Everybodys perdictions are just a good as someone else's. The ones we think are going to hit us don't, and the one's that aren't sometimes do. That how I feel anyway.

"TS KEITH" and "COLLEEN" (#27)
Posted by: peanuts Location: Hollywood, FL
Posted On 08:28PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (VSNSPNQYWNTV*)

Well looking at the NHC 4pm strike probabilites graph it looks like they've shifted their 72hour forcast track a bit more to the right from the 11 am forcast track. I guess we will all just have to wait and see what the next few days brings! On another note, I love this site and look forward to reading everyones posts. I do not post much mainly because I have no meteorological background I just find hurricanes/weather very interesting. I respect everyones opinions and only wish I had more knowledge so that I too could post more. Anyways I guess what I am trying to say is stop arguing and Colleen you go girl and keep posting:)

West Florida track (#28)
Posted by: mike Location: Clearwater Beach
Posted On 08:44PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVQNRTPNQPV*)

Climatelogically speaking, this is an area that given this time of year, has a higher chANCE of affecting west Florida. And looking at the front sitting in the central gulf, it would seem this storm would push more northeasterly. Even if it's not this front and the storm keeps moving slow, this is the time of year where the fronts keep coming down. Hope I made sense. My opinion. P.S. Lookat where Gordon and Helene went.

Colleen I Want You Back (#29)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 08:49PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWWNQWWNQPX*)

I don't post to much here myself unless a chance of a tropical system approaching my area but everyone here at least most of us enjoy this site because of people like Colleen who enjoy weather and hurricanes. Its time too become less critical and enjoy what this site for what it is all about. People who like to try to forcast and talk to others who have there own OPINION thats what makes all this exciting and alot of times knowledgeable to ones who enjoy to learn from others. Colleen please come back I have been doing this for over 25 years and never became a meteroligist(spelling)).., I enjoy the excitement and others who enjoy it like I do.

Code Updates (#30)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA (Currently)
Posted On 09:21PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRNUSNVY*)

I'm doing some underlying code updates to CFHC as well as switching a few urls in attempts to make it a little quicker. So hopefully everything isn't too broken.

Technically, Mainly using php more and migrating toward working with mysql databases for certain things.

Technically (#31)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 09:33PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)

thanks mike

Check out the rain fall amounts WOW! 28.5 in (keith) (#32)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 09:39PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)

MAX RAINFALL

DATE/TIME LOCATION MOTION MEAN LAST

----------- ------------ ------ ------- -------

30/0015 UTC 17.3N 85.0W 340/03 26.0 IN 28.5 IN

LAST RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...

DISTANCE LEFT OF CENTER RIGHT OF CENTER

------------- --------------- ---------------

0 TO 1 DEGREE 8.5 TO 25.0 IN 22.5 TO 28.5 IN

1 TO 2 DEGREE 5.5 TO 9.6 IN 6.2 TO 22.1 IN

2 TO 3 DEGREE 4.0 TO 6.6 IN 5.9 TO 10.6 IN

3 TO 4 DEGREE 3.7 TO 5.0 IN 0.2 TO 9.7 IN

Comment (#33)
Posted by: kandi Location: deltona
Posted On 09:59PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (RPWNSPNUSNRPV*)

I feel the same way as "peanuts". I love this site. I come here for information before I look anywhere else. It is so informative and has great links. I'm not an expert just interested in the way these systems work. Also I really like Colleen and her wit and the kind way she addresses people and things. Don't go away, keep up the good work all of you.

test (#34)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA (Currently)
Posted On 10:09PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRNUSNVY*)

test

The models (#35)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 10:14PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM KEITH (AL1500) ON 20000930 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...

000930 0000 000930 1200 001001 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 17.8N 85.2W 18.6N 86.1W 19.3N 86.7W

BAMM 17.8N 85.2W 19.1N 86.1W 20.1N 86.7W

A90E 17.8N 85.2W 18.6N 85.7W 19.4N 86.0W

LBAR 17.8N 85.2W 18.8N 85.9W 20.2N 86.3W

SHIP 45KTS 59KTS 70KTS

...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...

001001 1200 001002 0000 001003 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 20.0N 87.3W 20.6N 87.7W 21.3N 88.9W

BAMM 21.0N 87.3W 21.8N 87.6W 23.0N 88.8W

A90E 20.1N 86.4W 20.7N 86.9W 22.7N 87.5W

LBAR 22.0N 86.5W 23.9N 86.4W 27.7N 84.8W

SHIP 79KTS 84KTS 89KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LAT0 = 17.8N LON0 = 85.2W DIR0 = 320DEG SPD0 = 5KT

LATM12 = 17.0N LONM12 = 84.0W DIRM12 = 305DEG SPDM12 = 7KT

LATM24 = 16.2N LONM24 = 83.2W

WND0 = 45KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 30KT

CENPRS = 995MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 75NM

Best site (#36)
Posted by: William Location: Crystal River,Fl.
Posted On 10:23PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNUX*)

I Really like this site--Professional or non-professional--who ever it is giving info, its very intresting & informative!!! Keep up the good work, Colleen & everyone else giving info!!!

Ok (#37)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA (Currently)
Posted On 10:41PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRNUSNVY*)

I think I worked out the last few bugs tonight, but I'm sure there's more somewhere.

Joyce Rebounding? (#38)
Posted by: Mitch (http://home.cfl.rr.com/h2ocean/weather.html) Location: Cape Canaveral, FL
Posted On 11:10PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (RTNYUNRSQNST*)

Joyce looks to be getting better organized this evening. I was rather surprised to see the LLC become exposed today. Anyway, check out the below link, a ball of deep convection is increasing (since it is IR, difficult to say of the LLC is nearby).
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/storm/dvor-nh01.GIF

Also, some of you may of know of this link, but this is really cool. It shows both Keith and Joyce and it is animated!
http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/movie.pl?sat+jpg+10tttt+700+1000+carib+ir

It will be an interesting week ahead! Still very difficult to predict the tracks of both storms (especially Joyce). Keith is getting better organizied rapidly. The outflow is very impressive and conditions appear favorable for development.

Keith (#39)
Posted by: L.T. (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/SAB/TROP/DATA/img/GMEXIR4.html) Location: Pensacola, FL
Posted On 11:41PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (VTNQRNQPUNQWT*)

LA to FL better keep major watch, this system looks like it could explode! (already looks like it is tonight) Colleen Come back! :)

RIP (#40)
Posted by: Frank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 01:10AM 30-Sep-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)

RIP.. as in rapid intensification phase. if i read the 03Z discussion on keith right a recon is going to be there before the hour and after a while should send back new data. id be interested to see what the central pressure on keith is, considering that it has fallen about 10 mb over the last 24 h.. i wouldnt be surprised if it is around 990 mb now. im not sure of it, but i think keith may be a hurricane when the sun comes up tomorrow. joyce still looks decrepit. even though theres a good bit of convection flaring, the llc (cant see the thing) is around 53W, a good bit ahead of its convection. joyce basically jumped out of its skin the other night, and though the nhc keeps cranking joyce up a notch i wouldnt go so far as to forecast intensification until joyce stops running naked. gotta see it happen to believe in it, after watching debby a month ago. had lots of streakers this season. joyce may be nothing by the time it reaches barbados. as for new storms to watch, theres nothing imminent. BOC convection is almost gone tonight. lots of tstorms brewing around the bahamas, where models predict a low to spin off.. but nothing organized. on a final note, the emerging african wave is coming out under a ridge. the models move the ridge westward, maybe in tandem with it. might have a chance.
well, ive had my long winded say for the night. id rather hear something now, what does everybody think the season final count in named storms will be? climatologically we should have two or three more, that would bring us up to michael or nadine.
im for four more, up to oscar. how bout it?
sorry to be such a talker, yall take it easy.

storm count (#41)
Posted by: troy
Posted On 01:53AM 30-Sep-2000 with id (VSNQVNTVNQW*)

i too think we just may reach oscar. Last year did not see the "I" storm until mid october. we still have all of october and november to go. And some models still try to develope a low off of florida in 48-56 hours.

While not a season full of major long lived storms this has been an active season as far as initial development.

oh one more thing...coleen, get your behind back here.

Keith, Joyce, *OSCAR*??? (#42)
Posted by: Buffo Location: Chasn, SC
Posted On 03:20AM 30-Sep-2000 with id (QRNSTNQYNRTY*)

Oscar... Hmmm... It's been quite a while since we've gotten that far down the list, hasn't it? But you may be right Frank.

As for Keith, I'm with Gary Gray on this one: Look for a turn to the N, NNE and eventually NE. The NOGAPS has him going W into the bay of Campeche, but NOGAPS has always been lousy with Gulf storms, so I really can't put much faith in it here. And I believe Colleen is right, Florida will be under the gun if Keith wraps around that weak high to the E.

As for Joyce, I dunno... Strengthening is likely, but how many times have we heard that this year? Affecting the leeward islands is a foregone conclusion at this point. My real concern is what happens after she clears the Carrib.. NW, then recurve out to sea? NW, and hit the OB area? Or more of a NNW track and into Florida/Gerogia? Or even into the Gulf? I'm thinking something between the first two options, maybe a brush with NC and then out to sea. Comments?

Oh, one more thing: Despite ngdsol's unpopular comments about wishcasting and everyone's reaction to his post, it *IS* something many people unconsciously do, and I believe he was justified in broaching the subject. (Albeit gently) Even if the process didn't apply in this case, wishcasting is quite common on other discussion boards like this. Perhaps a bit more tact on everyone's part would have prevented the hurt feelings.

On the other hand, Colleen's point about posting opinions is right on the money. Science is the process of placing one's opinions under the scrutiny of many. That's how we gain knowledge. If your opinion is wrong, that simply means you need to form a new one. It shouldn't be a blow to your self esteem. (And yes, that's my opinion!) :^) G'night all...

KEITH, JOYCE (#43)
Posted by: mark
Posted On 04:09AM 30-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRVNQSTNUR*)

BOTH ARE GETTING STRONGER THIS MORNING THINK WE WILL HAVE 3 HURICANES DURING SAT. AND BOTH HAVE CHANCE TO BECOME MAJOR HURRICANES DOWN THE ROAD.

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