CFHC Talkback For News Story #126:
Newest Talkback: 03:06 PM 10-21 EDT

Jose
05:03 AM EDT - 19 October 1999

Irene is saying goodbye, as Jose is starting to heat up. At nearly Hurricane Status now, Jose is threatining the Leeward Islands in the Caribbean. Watches are up for these areas, and the projected track takes Jose toward the Northwest, scraping, or even crossing some of the islands.

Mainland U.S. Impact from Jose appears to be very unlikely.



For more information on Jose,

Caribbean Hurricane Page -- Personal Reports and Updates from the Caribbean Islands
NRL Monterey Tracking Site (Navy) -- Very nice forecast track graphics.
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
GFDL Model & Plot for Jose and for BAMB,BAMM, LBAR & A90E Models of Jose
Jose Multiple Model Forecast Composite from Michael Bryson

Weather Channel Caribbean Sat Image
Intellicast Caribbean IR Loop
Intellicast Atlantic IR Loop

More Sat images: Storm Centered imagery.

[N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.


- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #7 - #9 (of 24 total)
Conservative Predictions From National Television (#7)
Posted by: Mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 07:11PM 19-Oct-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVRNRQY*)

This is not a Rhetorical question, has anyone else noticed that the references to Jose's direction after Puerto Rico seems to be more conservative than before? I seem to remember in the past that if the models were showing what they are today, that the news media in general would have already written Jose off. I hope I am not stirring a hornets nest, but I am also hoping that I am seeing a positive cautious trend in forecasting.
Jose's Path (#8)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland
Posted On 08:18PM 19-Oct-1999 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNQYY*)

Well, it looks tonight as if Jose has maybe begun that nw turn already. Although it's hard to tell without satellite pictures, it does look that way. As for the forecasters, I think Mary is right with the exception of TWC...a few of them have ALREADY written it off, saying it would cause no threat to the mainland US. On the other hand, our local forecasters seem to be a bit more shy these days. I guess that suprise in tonight's 5:00pm NHC discussion could be coming.
Surprise? (#9)
Posted by: Mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 09:01PM 19-Oct-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVSNVW*)

I am not sure what you are saying. Could you explain a little more what you mean. I just may be reading the sentence the wrong way.
Surprise (#10)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay Fl
Posted On 09:43PM 19-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNUR*)

Mary, the surprise Colleen was refering to was the NHC advisory at 5 which stated that it would be a surprise to all if Jose turned to the north at this time -- that's paraphrased anyhow. What she's suggesting is that it is turning north now. This whole situation in the Caribbean and Gulf I find quite confusing at the moment. A WNW moving upper level cyclone in the west/central Caribbean could complicate the forecast for the upcoming weekend. The cold front that arrives in central Florida will be weak on Thursday, and if the low doesn't pan out, or is weak over the Georgia waters, it may lead to a stationary front over the Fl waters and ultimately not influence Jose as much as anticipated, Also, it almost seems like Jose is following the eastern pull of the upper low in the Caribbean, but one would expect that it will be pulled more to the west over the next couple of days. There is also evidence of an upper low to Jose's NE. This may also push it westward rather than northward, so I still expect a return to a west-nothwest heading later tonight or tomorrow. I am not by any means suggesting a threat to the US. But there is still some uncertainty with this system. AN A/C should be in there about now. Cheers.
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