CFHC Talkback For News Story #126:
Newest Talkback: 03:06 PM 10-21 EDT

Jose
05:03 AM EDT - 19 October 1999

Irene is saying goodbye, as Jose is starting to heat up. At nearly Hurricane Status now, Jose is threatining the Leeward Islands in the Caribbean. Watches are up for these areas, and the projected track takes Jose toward the Northwest, scraping, or even crossing some of the islands.

Mainland U.S. Impact from Jose appears to be very unlikely.



For more information on Jose,

Caribbean Hurricane Page -- Personal Reports and Updates from the Caribbean Islands
NRL Monterey Tracking Site (Navy) -- Very nice forecast track graphics.
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
GFDL Model & Plot for Jose and for BAMB,BAMM, LBAR & A90E Models of Jose
Jose Multiple Model Forecast Composite from Michael Bryson

Weather Channel Caribbean Sat Image
Intellicast Caribbean IR Loop
Intellicast Atlantic IR Loop

More Sat images: Storm Centered imagery.

[N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.


- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #4 - #6 (of 24 total)
jose (#4)
Posted by: jim Location: lauderdale fl
Posted On 03:29PM 19-Oct-1999 with id (RQVNWWNRQWNQPX*)

Sat pics & vapor loop continue to show increased sheer over jose. West quad lookin pretty ragged and sheer appears to be significant and increasing as day goes on. Outflow was much better last night and earlier today! Upper low in cntrl carib not moving quick enough and my bet it will likely prevent intensification much further in the near term. Contrary to 2pm Adv. storm continues to move to WNW as I am unable to note increase in Northerly trend...... East coast trough fcst 72-96hrs + will make a visit to FL or E cst near impossible. Even if jose stays further south below haiti, jose will never make it past this trough nor will it be able to sneak by it. My bet, minimal hurricane in puerto rico / haiti then rapid turn to north and complete miss for usa. circulation behind jose near 10 N small and unable to compete with jose circulation despite the convection near center - its a bust! Finally---some one explain to me why there seems to be a persistent total unequivical faith in the model forcast, when current observation frequently provides clear evidence that a model forcast just ain't gonna be correct. HHHow can such smart individuals at the hurricane center ignore what is happening so often befor there eyes and continue to enforce a computers guidance. Such is the case when Irene traveled from the extreme western tip of cuba to offshore palm beach! How can one get to palm beach from western cuba by heading N for a day and a half and then turning north northeast. Guess what ? You can't!
Jose and the Models (#5)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland
Posted On 04:28PM 19-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNRY*)

Good points Jim...I haven't been able to look at the sat pictures but what I saw this morning said "West" mostly. However, the models are only as good as the information put into them; sometimes it's hard to remember that little factoid. I guess when we see that trough pick it up and take it north is when I will relax. And not until then. Take care!!!
Jose,, colleen response (#6)
Posted by: Scottsvb
Posted On 05:49PM 19-Oct-1999 with id (VSNRSNQXUNQQP*)

The trough like Jim said will take him
out to sea,,,no worries at all for florida.
But when is the key?? for the Bahamas,,,but
they only have a small threat. scottsvb
Conservative Predictions From National Television (#7)
Posted by: Mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 07:11PM 19-Oct-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVRNRQY*)

This is not a Rhetorical question, has anyone else noticed that the references to Jose's direction after Puerto Rico seems to be more conservative than before? I seem to remember in the past that if the models were showing what they are today, that the news media in general would have already written Jose off. I hope I am not stirring a hornets nest, but I am also hoping that I am seeing a positive cautious trend in forecasting.
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