CFHC Talkback For News Story #129:
Newest Talkback: 02:07 AM 10-04 EDT

Keith Tropical Storm
06:52 AM EDT - 03 October 2000

Keith is now over land and finally moving, just a bit, toward the Northwest. The National Hurricane Center thinks it will reemerge in the Central Gulf and head generally northward. I tend to agree now. And restrengthen into hurricane status when it does. Keith continues to be a problem.

The remnants of Joyce are looking very poor this morning, so I don't see anything reoccuring with it.

The low just south of Florida looks like it may try to build into something tropical, but I doubt it will get strong enough to cause anything other than more rain for Florida.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.


NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for Isaac., Joyce, or Keith From Michael Bryson.
Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Other commentary at: Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center - Stormwarn2000 - SCOTTSVB's Hurricane Update Center - Jim Williams' Hurricane City - Gary Gray's Millennium Weather - Even More on our Links Page
Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Defiant Visible Infrared More...
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)
StormCarib.com has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean.
Ouragans.com Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens.
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.
Live Webcam image from Florida Emergency Management's Emergency Operations Center
Florida Emergency Management Activation Page / Situation Updates

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #18 (of 18 total)
Convection (#1)
Posted by: R.A.D (http://flhurricane.com/rad) Location: St Petersburg FL
Posted On 08:08AM 03-Oct-2000 with id (RTNRXNRNSY*)

RainMan ? http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/movie.pl?sat+jpg+10tttt+512+600+texas+mb lokks pretty good from here .
TROPICS (#2)
Posted by: LONNY Location: HOLLYWOOD,FL
Posted On 08:40AM 03-Oct-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNRPQ*)

I think Keith is pretty much history just like Joyce.On the other hand it is raining cats and dogs here in S.Florida.It looks like a Depression is trying to form SE of here.I would be interested in what the recon says later this morning. Any info. would be appreciated.
Rain (#3)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 08:44AM 03-Oct-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNQXT*)

Well, we know one thing for sure, that it's raining. It is beginning to rain here, some light bands coming in as I type. It will be interesting to see what else it brings with it, although I don't think it has much time to develop into anything huge (of course, it will probably make a fool out of me and turn into a major hurricane..what else would you expect THIS season
possible depression (#4)
Posted by: Rick Location: Delray Bch FL
Posted On 09:09AM 03-Oct-2000 with id (RPYNRTPNRRPNQVX*)

After reviewing the past model runs that I had printed out, it looks like the BAMD was the only correct one for Keith in the 72 hr run (1200Z 9/29).

I'd be interested to see the BAMD run for this possible depression. Also eagerly awaiting the recon info.

Here in Delray, heavy cloud cover with light showers on and off. Winds light, variable.
Was in Pompono Bch within the past 2 hrs. It was raining steadily moderate-heavy. Winds SSE about 5-10.

Got rained out of work so I get to watch the weather all day!
Problems with NHC site (#5)
Posted by: David
Posted On 09:16AM 03-Oct-2000 with id (RPYNQQTNRRPNRTW*)

Is anyone else having troubles in trying to view the sat loops on this site. I have been trying to get in for over a day now.

Here is Cocoa we are getting a lovely rain, I hope it rains for the rest of the week.
NHC SAT LOOPS (#6)
Posted by: Peanuts Location: Hollywood, FL
Posted On 09:28AM 03-Oct-2000 with id (RPXNSRNQSQNRRW*)

Your not the only one I could not get one yesterday and I have not yet tried today!!!!!!!!
Hard Rain (#7)
Posted by: Jim F. (http://www.flhurricane.com/jfaul) Location: Ft. lauderdale
Posted On 11:06AM 03-Oct-2000 with id (RPYNSQNXRNQPP*)

heavy rain for the last 2.5 hours and the clouds are getting darker. I would say we are getting an 1.5 inches/hr. Ground here in Miami is saturated from yesterday..not nearly as much rain in ft.lauderdale yesterday.


two circulations (#8)
Posted by: alan Location: orlando
Posted On 11:28AM 03-Oct-2000 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)

Yet another storm has seen its circulations split in two. The mid-level is moving west, the low level moving northwest. What is up with this kooky season.
BTW, does anyone know when recon is supposed to go into the system off of Florida?
recon (#9)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 11:48AM 03-Oct-2000 with id (RPYNTNTQNQPY*)

right now 15z
recon (#10)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 11:56AM 03-Oct-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)

the recon is in there, apparently, watching and waiting. this morning the key west radar is showing less of a vortex and more of a trough.. looks less organized than last night to be sure. no clear cut pressure falls either.. if this disturbance is developing it sure isnt doing it fast. by this time tomorrow it should be crossing florida, so it does have something of a time constraint on it. keith finally got moving. probably wont dissipate over land now.. could do something interesting again once it gets back over water.
nothing much else going on.
take it easy everybody.
FLOOD WARNING (#11)
Posted by: Richie Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Posted On 04:57PM 03-Oct-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNUR*)

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
441 PM EDT TUE OCT 3 2000

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EASTERN BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA

* UNTIL 845 PM EDT

* AT 434 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY HEAVY RAIN OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE TRAINING OVER
THE METROPOLITAN AREAS OF MIAMI DADE AND EASTERN BROWARD COUNTIES
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. REPORTS ACROSS THE AREA INDICATE
THAT UP TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAVE FALLEN ACROSS MANY AREAS.


FLOODS (#12)
Posted by: LONNY Location: HOLLYWOOD,FL
Posted On 05:37PM 03-Oct-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYTNQXT*)

Your not kidding. Here in Broward County it has been raining probably an inch an hour.We are getting the training effect. If the Broad low stayed out in the water it probably would of made it to depression status. It should be over in the next couple of hours. Hopefully.....
Weak (and Wet) Surface Low (#13)
Posted by: Ed Dunham Location: Melbourne, FL
Posted On 06:02PM 03-Oct-2000 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNST*)

Radar loops and surface data suggest that a weak low came ashore south of Ft Myers an hour or two ago - moving northeast toward Ft Pierce. But maybe I mis-read it. Already over two inches up here in the Melbourne area and expecting another two to four before its over - gonna be a mighty wet night. Stay dry!
Cheers,
ED
TD KEITH (#14)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 07:04PM 03-Oct-2000 with id (VSNRSNQXWNQWR*)

Well TD Keith is contining its wnw path across the Yucitan with rain amounts between 2-25inches in belieze..ouch,,,. The NHC had come around to what i said the forcasted track would be and that
is a path to the texas border in 72hrs...but i
don't see the near hurricane strength they forcast
him,,,but i do expect a TS when nearing landfall
with winds near 60mph....now also to note,,it can
be a more of a threat if it stays slower than
10mph on this wnw corse,,cause with the strong
cold front heading into the n Gulf in 48-60hrs,,
a turn near Mexico back ene with a quick speed
on friday and saturday could be. So 1 of 2 things
can happen,,but im glad Keith did what i expected
him todo,,,but i feel bad for the people in
Belieze.
Elswhere a trough over south fl should continue n
and spread alot of rain into c florida tongiht and
Weds,,no development will happen,,,i hope you guys
in S florida are cooping well with the rainfall.
Also,,,lets just watch the w carribean the next 2
days,,but development is possible,,but not a sure
bet/....scottsvb
emerging (#15)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 07:50PM 03-Oct-2000 with id (QYYNQXRNQPNQXQ*)

It looks like keith(or at least thew convection) is starting tp emerge into the Gulf of Mexico. It may be up to minimal Ts strength in 24-36 hours
Keith entering GOM? (#16)
Posted by: Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 08:27PM 03-Oct-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNUX*)

At 4 cdt today the NHC said Keith would be entering the GOM in 12-18 hours, looking at the latest IR pix it "appears" like Keith will be entering earlier than expected!

Still not sure where the LLC is since it had been reported that the MLC and LLC were not stacked and the LLC was to the NE of the MLC... Latest vis sat pixs late this afternoon showed the convection and MLC southwest of the LLC. Just guessing, I also think the LLC is farther north than it was projected to be at this time... If this is accurate, and I'm not positive, should also impact the next round of modeling...

The flare up on the IR has been somewhat impressive tonight and it'll be interesting to see if Keith can get cranked up again...

This might not be over just yet...
enjoy your evening everyone...
feet wet by daybreak (#17)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 08:53PM 03-Oct-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)

keith sure looks anxious to get its feet wet again. west side convection is really firing off. moving faster now, might run across the boc and be ashore before getting too strong again. its wait and see what happens when the center moves back off.. maybe as soon as 2am. ya see the vortex message the recon sent? yeah, they sent one for the disturbance over florida.. ya can check it under recon at the nhc site. just looks like a sharp trough right now.. center of gravity is maybe over lake okeechobee? well, that might fire off when it moves ne off florida tomorrow. its all wait n see, both systems worth watching are still feet dry.
take it easy, all.
welcome Back "Scott" (#18)
Posted by: Robert T.
Posted On 10:07PM 03-Oct-2000 with id (QYYNRRWNQWSNQWW*)

Long time know see!

Well i wouldent have been able to tell the diffrence between a weak deppresion and a trough today with all the gusty winds and rain it sure seemed /// seems like there is TD crossing the state
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