Persistence is the key...
08:42 PM EDT - 27 June 1999
There is a tropical wave in the central Caribbean that could develop if it persists for two days or so and makes it into the western Caribbean. The shear in this area is low enough to raise some scenarios in this area. One, nothing happens. Two, it develops. I place chances at 20% currently that something will develop currently. Enough to watch, anyway.
As far as the approaching Cape Verde season (When storms start the long journey across the Atlantic off of Africa) it seems to be setting up well except for sea surface temperatures. A pattern is emerging that seems to resemble the 1995 pattern which enabled quite a few systems to track across. However, the potential for landfall from these storms on the US East coast is somewhat higher than it was in 1995. I do not like to be called an alarmist, but it is a good idea in general to make sure you have the insurance premiums paid up. Some well respected sources this year have also concurred with this general statement. So once again I ask everyone to keep a good watch this year.
- [mac]
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