CFHC Talkback For News Story #43:
Newest Talkback: 02:55 PM 08-09 EDT

Low Meets Ft. Pierce
06:24 AM EDT - 09 August 2000

9:45 AM Mini Update: The low still seems to be having problems getting wrapped around, but the
Visible Satellite Imagery shows a definite low level circulation. Forward motion has slowed down, and it is entering a less hostile area. We'll have to watch this one all day. Landfall would be in the evening if the forward speed stays close to what it is now. Area between Ft. Pierce and Vero seems the most likely right now for the center to make landfall, but depending on how much it slows down, this could change. The east coast from Ft. Lauderdale on up to Jacksonville should be aware of it at least.

7:30 AM Mini Update: The last few frames of satellite imagery suggest that the convection around the low is trying to wrap around. If this continues expect the 11AM update to have TD#4 (or Beryl). This is preliminary speculation though.
Original Update:
It looks like the pesky almost-tropical depression will landfall around Ft. Pierce or just to the north of it. Expect some rain. It could strengthen into a Tropical Depression. The other wave still isn't organized, and the one mentioned in the Gulf is solidly over land now and has no chance to develop. Alberto is now a Tropical Storm, and may strengthen again later once the shear dies down. It is a fish spinner, and will not affect land.

The low approaching us now is moving over the gulf stream, which puts it in a position to slow down forward motion and possibly get a boost before landfall (Beryl still has a small chance to form here), but that won't be enough to cause much concern other than marine interests here.

Comments? Use the comment button by the story Headline.

Nice Satellite Image of Atlantic (IR Colorized)

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]


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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #4 (of 4 total)

Tropical Wave off Florida Coast (#1)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 09:04AM 09-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPQNRPR*)


I have noticed this morning that the convection has died down with this system; however, on the loops from the NHC, I believe you can see that it HAS slowed down and is almost stationary right before it hits the gulfstream. I think no matter what happens with this, we should keep an eye to the east. As mentioned above, it could refire this morning/afternoon and we will have trouble. It also looks as though Alberto has taken a subtle jog to the west again, of course, this could be the n/w motion I am seeing, who knows. Time will tell on all of these systems. Mother Nature seems to have her own way of dealing with these things.

Tropical Disturbance (#2)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 10:17AM 09-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPQNRPX*)


I just saw the visible satellite on TWC, and it definitely shows an impressive circulation now. It almost looks as though it is wrapping around completely and is still east of the gulfstream...so, we shall see what the recon planes bring us later on...will be waiting anxiously for the 11:00am advisory.

TD #4 (#3)
Posted by:
Bill Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 10:41AM 09-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)


According to the TBW Discussion,the system off of the Florida East coast has been declared TD#4. I expect this will come out 'officially' at either 11am or 11:30am.

IHS,

Bill

TD $ first public advisory- FYI (#4)
Posted by: Bill Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 10:55AM 09-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)


MIATCPAT4
WTNT34 KNHC 091445
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED AUG 09 2000

...SMALL TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST OF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
COAST...MAINLY A THREAT TO MARINE INTERESTS...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.5 WEST OR ABOUT 120
MILES...190 KM...NORTHEAST OF FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS. THIS IS ALSO
ABOUT 195 MILES EAST OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING WESTWARD...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH GUSTS
TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...27.9 N... 77.5 W. MOVEMENT...
DRIFTING WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN







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