CFHC Talkback For News Story #46:
Newest Talkback: 03:02 AM 08-11 EDT

Oompa Loompa Depression
05:02 AM EDT - 10 August 2000

Not much has changed since last night. We have this amazing little depression just off our coast. (Amazing in the fact how well defined the circulation is, how small it is, and how just devoid of anything other than low level activity it is -- Truly an oddball system). It's hard to tell without visible pictures, but its close enough to the Melbourne NWS office to see it on radar. It's moving a bit north of west now. But still VERY slowly. If it were a bigger system we'd be feeling it right now. But, it's incredibly small so we aren't.

I'm guessing the center of it will get within 30 miles or so of Cape Canaveral, and then head north. It probably will finally start to get stronger today as well, and may become a tiny Tropical Storm. After that I expect the trough to nudge it up and away from the coast where it will be left behind. After that all bets are off, but I expect it'll drift around a bit and move offshore off the NC coast. In other words, if it does get picked up, and not left behind, then it won't affect land at all. If it does not then it will drift, and I really don't know where it will end up yet. This mini-storm is just strange.

Otherwise. Hurricane Alberto still churns away. the one wave East of the Bahamas is again in very poor shape, and the wave emerging of Africa looks to be the best chance for the next thing.

Canaveral East Buoy Reports (Nearest to TD#4)
Canaveral West Buoy Reports (Nearer to Shore)

Comments or Questions? Use the comment button by the story Headline.

Nice Satellite Image of Atlantic (IR Colorized)

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #2 - #22 (of 22 total)
Beryl soon...Chris? (#2)
Posted by: Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 09:48AM 10-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQYY*)

Here is my analysis originally posted on ECTWC:

Tropical Depression Four has become slightly better organized this morning with dopplar radar and IR satellite imagery indicating moderate convection wrapping around the circulation center. I believe that TD Four will become Tropical Storm Beryl within 24 hours. Easterly shear over TD Four is beginning to weaken slightly as the shear transists into westerly shear ahead of a trough over the eastern U.S. This transition period should allow TD Four to attain tropical storm status. The approaching trough will also instigate a more northward motion over the next 36 hours, with the system skirting the northeast coast of Florida. Since TD Four is an extremely small tropical cyclone, wind and seas will be relatively harmless. The biggest impact will be increased rainfall over the northern part of the Sunshine State. I do not foresee TD Four making landfall anywhere. It should eventually become absorbed in the trough to its north and taken out to sea.

Hurricane Alberto is no longer a concern for any land areas, but rather only shipping interests. Alberto has been moving on a more west-northwest heading the past 18 hours around the circulation of a cut-off low near the Leeward Islands. However, this motion will not continue as a the trough over the eastern U.S. will curve Alberto north before reaching Bermuda.

The northwest Caribbean Sea is beginning to concern me this morning. A large mass of convection has been very persistent over the past 12 to 24 hours and, if this trend continues, a tropical low may form. An upper-low over the western Yucatan Peninsula is currently producing some southerly wind shear across the northwest Caribbean, but this shear will lessen as the low shifts westward. The circulation around this upper low should also bring the wave into the southern Gulf of Mexico. The future path is very uncertain at this time. I do see some potential for this system to threaten land areas in the eastern Gulf of Mexico...much more than previous waves in this area. This area will have to be closely monitored for signs of development.

A tropical wave south of the Cape Verde Islands continues to look very impressive on IR satellite imagery this morning. Peristent convection and favorable upper-level wind conditions make this wave one to watch. This is just a wait and see situation.

TD Four should become Beryl, and Chris should form from one of the latter two systems.

God Bless,
Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.
Caribbean (#3)
Posted by: Duncan Mitre Location: Winter Park, FL
Posted On 10:44AM 10-Aug-2000 with id (RPWNSPNWTNRQ*)

When will TD#4 move away from shore? Will the system in the carib go over land and not develop like the last one?
TD 4 (#4)
Posted by: Bill Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 11:05AM 10-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Is moving away from Florida as of 11am, although Jack Beven at the HNC hints this could just be a center reformation. Forcast to become a minimal tropical storm over the next day or so (where have we heard htis before?).

Meanwhile....MCS in the gulf, convection flaring and moving NNW in Carib, low organizing off SC/ANC and another off the African coast, lots to watch.

And, oh..Alberto too!

IHS,

Bill
radar loop (#5)
Posted by: alan Location: orlando
Posted On 11:31AM 10-Aug-2000 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)

If you want to see something really neat, take a look at the Intellicast radar loop for Orlando. TD4's eye looked like it hit a brick wall and bounced back. It's just another weird quirck of this already strange storm.
Gulf of Mexico, Gulf of Honduras (#6)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 12:12PM 10-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNXR*)

OK, WX Experts, I have a question for you: the big blob that just came off of the coast of LA and is generally moving south, is it possible that the same trough that is suppossed to move all the systems in the Atlantic to the NE could just as well move these two systems to the NE (as in, towards Florida?) Or will it not reach down far enough to have any effect at all? This may sound like a stupid question, but there is a little rationale in there somewhere!!! Thanks, Colleen
The LA Blob (#7)
Posted by: Ed Dunham Location: Melbourne, FL
Posted On 01:10PM 10-Aug-2000 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNWQ*)

Actually Colleen, in this business, anything is possible, however, it usually depends on where the 'blob' is in relation to the trough. The cluster south of Louisiana is on the 'backside' of the trough and would probably continue to be pushed south or southwest whereas TD4 is 'ahead' of the trough (actually its probably more 'neutral' to the trough) so the expectation would be that the trough would 'pick it up' ahead of the trough's forward motion. In this case though, I'm not yet convinced that the trough will capture the TD (nothing else has captured this thing for the past week). TD4 may have some upper air 'roots' that are not evident on the satellite pixs, i.e., it originated from an upper-level low near Bermuda which developed a surface sub-tropical circulation beneath it and the whole system meandered southwestward toward Florida over the past few days. Frankly I'm not quite sure what this thing is going to do (probably an unusual statement for a weather-guesser, but I'm an old weather-guesser)- dime-sized tropical cyclones don't happen too often. If the trough misses the TD, it could wander offshore for a couple of days. If a new TD develops southeast of Hatteras, the outflow from that new system could actually push TD4 south of east (or tear it apart) - but thats a bit of a stretch. The system in the western Caribbean appears to be very well organized and TD status might not be too far off for this one. The wave south of the Cape Verde Islands probably still needs a day or two to attain better organization (and that one is still an 'if'). Like Bill said, "Lots to watch."
Cheers,
ED
Thanks, Ed!!! (#8)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 01:22PM 10-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNWX*)

Well, you answered my question very well!!! Thank you...now here's another one: what about the one east of Hatteras? Are you saying you think the trough will also pick this one up or move it towards our coast or away from it? I am just learning all this tropical weather stuff, so I really appreciate your patience with me!!! Thanks Againg, Colleen
long term forecast for Gulf (#9)
Posted by: Rick
Posted On 01:38PM 10-Aug-2000 with id (RPYNQRNVYNQYY*)

Does the flare up in the Northern Gulf, or the one just SE of the Yucatan, have any chance of developing? I realize that the one near Mobile is just the tail end of the trough....however, the waters in the Gulf are rather steamy...as for the one in the Caribbean...where is it's general heading? I suppose if either of them were to stall a bit..they could cook themselves into a storm
by the way...thanks for this site...I appreciate the weather experts that are contributing......an interesting 4 flare ups right now.....to be sure...and I agree with all,...that little dime size storm....TD #4...seems destined to be one to remember...wouldn't suprise me if it keeps suprising us all!
Still a wave!?!? (#10)
Posted by: Richard B (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 06:17PM 10-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNQWSNQTR*)

How can that system SE of Hatteras still only be a qwave? It looks extremely impressive on both visible and ir imnagery, and just by looking at the cloud patterns on the visible you would think it was at least a very strong depression if not a Tropical Storm. Yet recon flight has found nothing! Well we need to watch this area very closely!
And TD 4 has moved east now. Interesting to see what will happen to him... such a small and compact storm, full of surprises! Will it surprise us again? Well yet again we must wait and see! I must admit thast i am surprised it was not upgraded to a TS earlier, it looked very impressive for such a little system!
And what about the Yucatan wave? It too looks to be getting much better organised, and when in the steaming waters of the Gulf of Mexico it will likely develop. I was a little surprised that the recon flight into this system again revealed that there was no depression. however i dont think it will be long in becoming a TD.
And finally Alberto. Heading north in the Atlantic, and is beginning to look like he might upset the weather here next week as an Extratropical System, but we will watch out for him.
Any eway, all take care and i will talk again soon.
Bye
sorry (#11)
Posted by: Richard B (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 06:18PM 10-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNQWSNQTR*)

apologies for the typos in my above message... hope u can all understand what i meant!
Rotation? (#12)
Posted by: clyde w. Location: orlando
Posted On 07:47PM 10-Aug-2000 with id (VSNWSNRQSNU*)

Maybe it's just a trick of nature, but it sure seems like the system east of TD #4 has become much better organized in the last couple of hours. I think it would almost certainly be a depression by 11:00. Does anyone think the interaction of this system and Alberto could lead to a fujiwara effect, or will the trough just pick both systems up and head them out to sea? Also, has TD #4 checked out or what? I can barely discern a low-level circulation on the last few visible frames. I think this one will be written off by tomorrow a.m. as it gets sucked into what most likely will be TD #5 or Beryl.

The system over the Yucatan should also be watched as it is poised to move into the warm waters of the southern Gulf.

What's everyone else's thoughts?

Yours,
Clyde
Things (#13)
Posted by: Mike C. [CFHC] (http://flhurricane.com) Location: New Smyrna Beach, FL (Currently)
Posted On 08:00PM 10-Aug-2000 with id (VSNRTNQPXNUS*)

Hmm. Interesting that TD#4 moved back east. The situation east of it and that wave combined with other activity is making for a really difficult time of things. I expect another Depression by tomorrow morning somewhere.
I'll probably update the main page around the 11PM update or so.



Really great ideas here folks. Thanks for using this site.

To kill a few emails I got...
Technical Site Notes: I'm in the process of writing a new weather "daemon" or "Service" program for this page to get rid of the collision problems with the advisories on the main page. (Ie the current Queue used has no type of priority so it winds up missing a lot of advisories when many people hit the site) I'm not sure if I'm going to go back to an SQL based database system or just create it from scratch. I prefer the latter for this, because I need the speed and want to do more automated graphics for the site. Time for things like that is lacking right now, though.

Viel Dank,
- Mike C.
Interaction of systems (#14)
Posted by: PEANUTS Location: Hollywood, FL
Posted On 08:16PM 10-Aug-2000 with id (VSNSPNRPSNRPQ*)

As Clyde from Orland said in his post earlier what would happen if the two interacted or collided? (The system east of TD4 and Alberto) I was just thinking the same thing earlier. Any comments would be appreciated. And what is a fujiwara effect?
Fujiwara (#15)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay FL
Posted On 08:57PM 10-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNTR*)

This effect, named after Dr. Fujiwara of course, is a phenomena that occurs when one tropical cyclone egts whipped around the other cyclone, essentially leap-frogging it. A rare occurence, seen in the Pacific mainly. I doubt if this situation will occur in this with alberto and the wave, since alberto is expected to turn n, then ne. Actually, one set of models has it turning east, which could be interesting. Lots of stuff happening in the tropics. AS I posted on another site, the interaction betwwen all these systems will get intersting, and there is much uncertainty, even with TD#4 and the wave. If the wave SE of Hatteras strengthens it could push TD#4 south, or kill it. the waves development could get stunted by alberto, but maay not depnding on the timing. The NW Caribbean area could get into the gulf, strengthen and head west or NE if the upper low to it's west or the trough push and pull it that way, respectively. Finally the waves in the eastern Atlantic may dsevlop over time. whew! lots happening! cheers!
Fujiwara (#16)
Posted by: clyde w.
Posted On 09:05PM 10-Aug-2000 with id (VSNWSNRQSNU*)

Thanks Steve! You are correct about the fujiwara and I was actually overthinking the situation a little bit. I was wondering if the wave would rotate south if it interacted with Alberto. I think, given the complexity of the situation, that I'll let be and just see what happens. Really neat stuff happening out there tonight!
Fujiwara, etc. (#17)
Posted by: Ed Dunham Location: Melbourne, FL
Posted On 09:22PM 10-Aug-2000 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNUV*)

Time to catch up with a few comments.
For Colleen: The system southeast of Hatteras would be picked up by the same trough and hauled off to the northeast. Thanks for the tip on the other data source.
For Richard: Excellent comments - the offshore Hatteras system looks quite impressive to me too. It has had a weak circulation, although not necessarily a surface circulation, near 30N 73W for most of the afternoon. Murphy's Law says that one hour after the aircraft leaves the area, a tropical wave will form a circulation. This wave has had a history of looking very impressive during the day only to fall completely apart at night - NHC might be waiting to see if it can hold together overnight.
For Rick: The core of the Caribbean system should emerge from the Yucatan into the southern Gulf of Mexico (near 21N 91W) later tonight (moving west northwest) - I'd expect rather impressive development on Friday. If the system southeast of Hatteras develops, and maybe even if it doesn't, I think that TD4 is just about history - shear will take its toll.
For Clyde: The Fujiwara effect is a rather uncommon event in the Atlantic. It has happened before, but usually with strong and well-developed systems. Often the two systems alternate as the fulcrum point, which can make a real nightmare out of 'track' forecasting. In this case though, especially with Alberto already heading north, I don't think that the Fujiwara will occur.
For Peanuts: I think we'll see TD4 get absorbed by the system to its east (although I've been humbled many times before by tropical systems - just when you think that you've figured them out, they suddenly show you that you haven't). By the time the eastern system gets its act together (or even if it doesn't) Alberto will be long gone (and keeping Richard occupied). Now, as to the Fujiwara....since Clyde brought it up, I should give him first opportunity to answer. Hope that some of this has helped.
Cheers,
ED
"Great instight" (#18)
Posted by: peanuts Location: Hollywood, FL
Posted On 09:38PM 10-Aug-2000 with id (VSNSPNRPPNUV*)

Thanks everyone for the comments. "you learn something new everyday"!
"GREAT INSIGHT" (#19)
Posted by: peanuts Location: Hollywood, FL
Posted On 09:43PM 10-Aug-2000 with id (VSNSPNRPPNUV*)

To bad I haven't learned to spell yet! "INSIGHT" LOL
Thanks Ed! (#20)
Posted by: clyde w. Location: orlando
Posted On 10:05PM 10-Aug-2000 with id (TNQWNRUPNU*)

Just wanted to say thanks for the info. One of the reasons I always come back to this site is that people with a good bit of knowledge, and people who know just enough to be dangerous (namely me) :) can have great discussions. Most other sites seem to paint everyone into the "haves" and "have not" camps, which is very frustrating. Thanks again to all who post.

Ed, you nailed it about the fujiwara, I don't think I need to add a thing.
Thanks Ed! (#21)
Posted by: clyde w. Location: orlando
Posted On 10:08PM 10-Aug-2000 with id (VSNWSNRQSNU*)

Just wanted to say thanks for the info. One of the reasons I always come back to this site is that people with a good bit of knowledge, and people who know just enough to be dangerous (namely me) :) can have great discussions. Most other sites seem to paint everyone into the "haves" and "have not" camps, which is very frustrating. Thanks again to all who post.

Ed, you nailed it about the fujiwara, I don't think I need to add a thing.
One of the Things I like about this site (#22)
Posted by: OrlandoDude Location: O-Town
Posted On 11:02PM 10-Aug-2000 with id (RQVNWXNRSQNVW*)

I just wanted to say thanks to everyone. This site is so refreshing, considering that noone attempts to second guess the NHC and that the postings are intelligent. I was recently on Storm2000.com and the chat there has turned into nonsense chat and people wish-casting. For some god awful reason, these people have a tendency to want to see the destruction of hurricane in their backyards. Having experienced first hand the destruction of Hurricane Andrew, these people don't know what they are wishing for. Anyways, I am now going to climb down off my soap box and just say thanks again.. I hope I can or have contributed positively to the posting, if not, I have very much enjoyed the postings you have made.


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