CFHC Talkback For News Story #74:
Newest Talkback: 09:16 PM 08-28 EDT

Activity Southeast of Florida
08:36 AM EDT - 28 August 2000

Not much happened over the weekend, but at the start of this week we have a system southeast of Florida that has a chance to develop a little. If it does expect a little wetness around Florida.

Other than this area, there isn't much going on. The wave in the Caribbean is getting sheared to death, and not surprisingly, Debby never came back from the dead.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Debby (Good Forecast Track Graphic)


Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #12 - #22 (of 32 total)
Recon Invest (#12)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 12:18PM 28-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

FYI:

NOUS42 KNHC 281545
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT MON 28 AUG 2000
SUBJECT: THE TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
. VALID 29/1100Z AUG TO 30/1100Z AUG 2000
. TCPOD NUMBER......00-088
.
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
. 1. SUSPECT AREA
. A. 29/1800Z
. B. AFXXX 01XXA INVEST
. C. KBIX 29/1530Z
. D. 29.0N 79.0W
. E. KBIX
. F. 29/1700Z TO 29/2200Z
. G. SFC TO 10,000 FT
. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
. AT 30/1200Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.IHS,

Bill

TWC, Again (#13)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 12:25PM 28-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNQWV*)

Ok..the weekly forecast was just on, and from what I gathered, they have no idea where it's going..whether it goes north, or whether it gets pulled in to the SE coast. So much for that...but John Hope does seem concerned (unusually so) about this system..anyone know exactly how far off the coast this sucker is? 20? 10? 15? 100? Has it crossed the Gulfstream yet? Lots of questions, not a lot of answers from the pros.


Recon Info (#14)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 12:30PM 28-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNQWV*)

29.0N / 79.0 W is just about due east of Central Florida's East coast..which tells me that they are not expecting this thing to move very quickly at all. As for the models, has anyone seen any new ones?
LLCC? (#15)
Posted by: Richard (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 12:31PM 28-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNSRNRPW*)

Would you please look at this url:
http://www.intellicast.com/LocalWeather/World/UnitedStates/Southeast/Florida/Melbourne/VisibleSatelliteLoop/
and tell me what you think. I personaly think that a LLCC may be trying to form southeast of Cape Canaveral. The loop indicates a generally stationary, but developing, system. good convection to the south and east of the centre. Banding to the north. What are your opinions? By the way, models indicate a landfall within the area from Central Florida north to near North Carolina within 72 hours!
A Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert is in effect on my site at present, but depending on development may be upgraded!
Also interesting to see NHC preparing for 6 hourls fixes on the system! do they think it will develop
models (#16)
Posted by: Richard (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 12:40PM 28-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNSRNRPW*)

Latest (12:00z) AVN model indicates a movement to the east before returning west to bring the system off the Georgia coast in 72 hours.
A good link (#17)
Posted by: David Location: Brevard/PSJ
Posted On 12:52PM 28-Aug-2000 with id (RPYNQQTNRRPNRTW*)

Hi All,

Check out this link;
http://www.intellicast.com/LocalWeather/World/UnitedStates/Southeast/Florida/Miami/1kmStormWatchLoop/
Cool Link!' (#18)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 12:59PM 28-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNQWV*)

That was a cool link...I think it is trying to get better organized and John Hope just said they think it will move north and then move back in the midatlantic states...we will see.
Another good loop (#19)
Posted by: David Location: Brevard/PSJ
Posted On 01:01PM 28-Aug-2000 with id (RPYNQQTNRRPNRTW*)

Here is another good loop showing the circulation of the Central Florida Coast.


http://www.intellicast.com/LocalWeather/World/UnitedStates/Southeast/Florida/CapeCanaveral/1kmStormWatchLoop/


Hopefully we will get some much needed rain in the PSJ area.

weather bouys (#20)
Posted by: troy Location: titusville,fl
Posted On 01:05PM 28-Aug-2000 with id (VSNRTNQQSNTW*)

here are 2 links to the bouys off of the cape.
http://www.nws.fsu.edu/B/buoy?station=41009

http://www.nws.fsu.edu/B/buoy?station=41009

both of these report up to the hour sea level pressure as well as wind speed and wave heoghts.
check it out!
sat loop (#21)
Posted by: Frank Pellegrino Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 01:14PM 28-Aug-2000 with id (QRNQSNRTXNQR*)

still yet another good visible sat pix of the circulation... appears it might just have a extremely slow easterly movement to it, or it could be the shear effect on the pix....

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php3?region=TPA&isingle=multiple&itype=vis
Bouys (#22)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 01:21PM 28-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNQWV*)

41010 is 120nm east of Cape Canavarel:

as of 12:00pm: Wind Direction: SE; Wind Speed: 13.6 knts; Wind gusts 15.5 knts; Wave Heights 5.2 (at 11 they were 6ft). Pressure: 1015.7 and steady.

Earlier , the wind speed was higher, don't know what it means that it is slower, if it means anything at all.
E of Florida (#23)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA
Posted On 01:23PM 28-Aug-2000 with id (RPVNRTVNRRPNRUP*)

Depends on how squally the weather is. I'm sure recon will tell more.
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