CFHC Talkback For News Story #77:
Newest Talkback: 08:02 PM 08-26 EDT

Dennis now a Hurricane
12:46 AM EDT - 26 August 1999

At 11:45pm only 45 minutes after the 11pm advisory Dennis is now a Hurricane. (See *Tropical Storm Special Update) Still not moving. All feel free to comment on your prediction on the track Dennis will take.

For East Central Florida residents and guests looking for more information such as Evacuation Routes and Planning tips see the following pages: [Brevard] [Volusia] [Flagler] [Indian River] [Inland] [News Media]
These have links to the county sites which gives evacuation information and shelter locations.

Also our links page has links to other county EM pages.

For more information on Cindy see the Current Storm Spotlight for Cindy.
For more information on Dennis see the Current Storm Spotlight for Dennis.
For more information on Emily see the Current Storm Spotlight for Emily.
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Weather Channel Caribbean Sat Image
Intellicast Caribbean IR Loop
Intellicast Atlantic IR Loop

More Sat images: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.


- [jc]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #29 (of 29 total)
DENNIS AND THE SUNSHINE STATE (#1)
Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 01:25AM 26-Aug-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNQXX*)

Looking at the latest loop on DENNIS the center seems to be reforming again but this time to the SW, it really looks like the NHC forecast trak is NOT PANNING OUT, im starting to really lean toward's a direct landfall in the south florida area in along the lines of WEST PALM TO STUART,this system is really starting to bottom out as im seeing it now, im getting information that has DENNIS at 27.0 N 77.0 W 110mph / to the next pos of 27.0 N 78.5 W 115mph , this shows a clear due W motion as a ridge builds in from the east to west / BERMUDA HIGH, i have been going over all kind's of information and im still calling for a track change, As far as the trough turning him north , well that has all but passed and time will lean my way im sure of that so folks please be ready and pay attention , Mike Anderson Florida W
Dennis (#2)
Posted by: Joe
Posted On 07:39AM 26-Aug-1999 with id (TNQTNXVNRX*)

Ok guys, the models continue to show Dennis pulled to the north. Why does it seem to take the models so long to change?
models (#3)
Posted by: alan byrd
Posted On 08:00AM 26-Aug-1999 with id (RPVNRVNRTYNTQ*)

The models are stubborn. If you look at the history of the models and this storm, they all have been completely wrong. If the models had been right from the beginning, we would have the storm next to Florida right now.
While all the models are in agreement that it will miss Florida, the path it takes is very wide.
Right now, though, I don't know how much trust I put into the models. I think they really have no clue and instead of saying that, they are just sticking to their previous posts until they get an idea of where it will be going.
That should happen today.
The way I figure it, is that the hurricane has to travel 200 to 300 miles within 36-40 hours to have any chance at being turned slightly to the north. After that, there is a break in the wind flow that will send it back towards Florida. It will have to travel about 400 miles in 48 hours to be really turned away from Florida.
If you do the math, at its current movement, it wouldn't reach the trough for 80 hours. In other words, if we don't see it at least double its current speed today, there will be no chance of hitting it. Plus, if the trough picks up speed, the times will be shortened.
The models don't show this because there are A LOT of what-ifs in this scenerio and we'll have to wait until today to see if they pan out.
DENNIS SLOW, MODELS HAVEING LUNCH (#4)
Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 08:07AM 26-Aug-1999 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNXS*)

Goodmorning i have just a few things to say , we are now looking at DENNIS still moveing slow and most models have him still turning north, im sure now that themodels were baseint that on DENNIS moveing, but that window has been lost ,the best model's right now are the BAMD and BAMM moveing DENNIS to the west, the GFDL has DENNIS much faster and close to the NC coast in 48, you can throw that out the window as DENNIS would have to haul at 25 to 30 to make it in time and i dont see that , STICKING with forecast look for shear to lesson and DENNIS to move WNW, the threst to south florida is real and im going to give more as this day moves on ,later Mike Anderson Florida WX.
WHAT IF (#5)
Posted by: Evelyn Location: Gretna,La.
Posted On 09:01AM 26-Aug-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNQVX*)

Seen like we doing alot of what ifs on DENNIS I got a whar if for you Mike. What if Dennis gets in the gulf of Mexico any ideas of where it will might go.
GULF NO WAY (#6)
Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 09:11AM 26-Aug-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPQNRPT*)

ILL answer you question about the gulf, forget it DENNIS is moveing a bit slow but WNW, DENNIS is going to start to respond to a building ridge in the Atlantic soon (BERMUDA HIGH ) this is the ticket to the sunshine state, if the ridge builds as im thinking than a more W track would set up and than yes i can see a GULF shot, but the ridge is going to nose in slow as the trough moves out to the north. Mike Anderson.
Dennis to Florida? (#7)
Posted by: ~CirCane~
Posted On 09:15AM 26-Aug-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQXV*)

Its looking very likely right now, Dennis moving between 3 and 6mph is not going to turn this thing to the North. I think this thing will head WNW into Florida, into the Gulf. IF it does reach the Gulf I would expect landflal between New Orleans, LA to Apilachacola, FL. This could get intresting. Dennis is really beginning to be a Menace!!!

~~~SirCane~~~
what Category-Dennis (#8)
Posted by: mary Location: lakeland
Posted On 09:50AM 26-Aug-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVRNYV*)

What does effect does the prediction of Dennis during toward Florida have on the overall strength of Dennis. Will he strengthen before land fall or just sit it out as a minimal hurricane. Mike o anyone else who has the time to answer this would be helpful to us watchers who truly have plans to make.
Dennis (#9)
Posted by: Andy Location: Massachusetts
Posted On 09:53AM 26-Aug-1999 with id (RQVNQVTNRTXNRPU*)

One thing that seems to be underemphasized here is that Dennis has been and continues to be greatly sheared by west to northwest upper winds. This has not been anticipated (or initialized?) by the models at all. Where is this model error coming from? What effect does this have on Dennis' steering? Why are we sure it's going to lessen? Thanks....
-Andy
Models and movement (#10)
Posted by: Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 09:58AM 26-Aug-1999 with id (RPYNXVNQPNV*)

Looking at the situation with Dennis this morning, the trough over the eastern U.S. still may have enough punch to pull Dennis northward, but, then again, Dennis may move slow enough to continue west-northwesterly. I would have to place the chances of a Florida brush/strike and a northward turn both at 50%. Satellite imagery looks scary, though, as Dennis seems to be steadily moving west-northwest with no signs yet of a northwest curve. I don't like how the NHC is wording the threat in their public advisories. They are telling residents of primarily the Carolinas to watch out, but any storm of this proximity to the Florida coast should warrant more concern that I have seen. Since unsuspected wind sheer is affecting Dennis presently, I don't foresee him gaining more than Category 2 status IF he moves toward Florida.

Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.
TPC may have errored (#11)
Posted by: Bram Location: Hollywood Beach, Florida
Posted On 10:08AM 26-Aug-1999 with id (QSWNURNQYXNYW*)

I have monitored this storm, like others since I was slammed by Andrew 7 yrs. ago from the other day. Dennis appears to be struggling to intensify because of the Northwesterly winds aloft sheering off its' higher cloud tops. However, if this trough in the east does not dig deep today, and lifts back up to the north prior to Dennis's expected NWerly movement, I believe a strong High Pressure (Bermuda High) could build in the Atlantic pushing Dennis not only Westerly, rather than Northerly, but if it builds in strong enough, it could certainly cause the storm to slightly wobble southerly, vs. WNWerly.??
dennis strength (#12)
Posted by: alan byrd
Posted On 10:09AM 26-Aug-1999 with id (RPVNRVNRTYNTQ*)

Category 2 seems a little weak for my tastes. The shearing is happening now. If it persists, then yes it would have a hard time strengthening.
But you have to look at the warm waters in the Bahamas. They say it is warmer there than ever before. That will make the storm grow. I think once the storm leaves the shear zone — and that zone is not too strong right now — the storm will boom. Look at what happened with Andrew. When it hit the Bahamas and the gulf stream, it blew up. I see a similar pattern happening with Dennis, maybe even a greater growth pattern. It won't come close to Andrew's strength because it has a lower starting point.
Dennis WILL turn (#13)
Posted by: Alex Shevrovich Location: Palm Bay, FL
Posted On 11:47AM 26-Aug-1999 with id (QSRNQWPNRPSNSU*)

My thinking has NOT changed from yesterday. It will get kicked up north before any direct brush with Florida happens. I'm 75% sure of this.

Mike is going by the BAMM which I don't particulary trust in the situation. I'm going for the turn to the north.

Again if my thinking changes on it, I will post here ASAP.

Alex in Palm Bay
where is everyone? (#14)
Posted by: alan byrd
Posted On 03:09PM 26-Aug-1999 with id (RPVNRVNRTYNTQ*)

It's been more than three hours since the last posting. Where is everyone?
Big question: Is the slowdown since the 11 am advisory the turn or just another bad sign for florida?
little question: doesn't the water vapor images look like the trough has sunk further south?
Dennis (#15)
Posted by: Colleen Atwater Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:16PM 26-Aug-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNUX*)

I am hoping that the slow down means a turn to the northwest ...doesn't it usually slow down when it turns? Anyway, I am more hopeful now than I have been in the last few days that it will turn. I haven't looked at the WV images but I am going to go check it out. Keep hoping Florida!!!
The trough and Dennis (#16)
Posted by: Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 04:27PM 26-Aug-1999 with id (RPWNVYNRUTNQSQ*)

Well, after analyzing the situation this afternoon, I will shift back to my earlier forecast of Dennis taking a northerly turn and sparing Florida. Infrared satellite imagery shows an elongation and flattening of the western quadrant of convection. This occurrence indicates that Dennis is being influenced by westerly wind shear from the trough over the southeast U.S. Since Dennis is in an area of very weak steering currents, any possible steering entity, regardless of strength, will be enough of a factor to move Dennis in the resulting direction. The weak entity in Dennis's case is the trough over the eastern U.S. As for strength...the wind shear mentioned earlier will likely keep Dennis at minimal Category 1 strength for a while to come. I doubt that Dennis will intensify at the rate that NHC is forecasting.

As a final note...it appears doubtful to me that Dennis will directly impact Florida. I really don't see any reason why Dennis will escape the effects of the trough; however, I urge Floridians to stay on guard. The only possible way that I see Dennis directly affecting Florida is if the storm weakens and thus does not become influenced by the trough as much.

Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.
Dennis Stalled Again! (#17)
Posted by: Jeanine Sanders Location: Hollywood, FL
Posted On 05:09PM 26-Aug-1999 with id (VSNQSNTNQUR*)

I've been away all day and had no idea what was going on only to come home and read everyone's comments and then see the 5pm advisory, he's stalled again. Waiting to hear new thoughts on this storm. One TV weather Channel here saying we are out of the woods!
High pressure ridge (#18)
Posted by: Robert Location: Stuart
Posted On 07:23PM 26-Aug-1999 with id (QYYNRRWNQSQNRRT*)

sorry about that. I was wondering how long it would take the bermuda high to set in, and if it would be strong enough to pull Dennis into florida
dennis quiet far north (#19)
Posted by: ROBERT Location: STUART
Posted On 07:39PM 26-Aug-1999 with id (QYYNRRWNQSQNRRT*)

Hello evryone i have read the position of dennis
it seems a fairly further north then yesterday.
I im starting to feel better for i think becuse it is futher north it will queit likely miss florida and move north as predicte.

I was wondering what evry one thought about this.
{PLEASE REPLY}


NOT SURE!!!!! (#20)
Posted by: JAMIE Location: LAFITTE, LA
Posted On 08:17PM 26-Aug-1999 with id (RPYNRQTNQUQNTY*)

I,M REALLY BAFFLED BY DENNIS I DON'T THINK DENNIS KNOWS WHERE HE IS GOING AT THIS POINT. I WOULD REALLY LIKE TO HEAR WHAT MIKE HAS TO SAY NOW. DO YOU STILL STICK TO YOUR PREDICTION ON DENNIS?
NOT OVER TILL THE FAT ONE SINGS (#21)
Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 08:32PM 26-Aug-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNQUV*)

Well i have been reading the posts in the room and it sure seems like the room has given DENNIS the fair well, Well im back to tell you that nothing has changed all day, if you call a 6 mile move in a day something than you need to sit this pne out, Others have asked why i have not posted well i have been real busy all day long, Now what am i thinking , THE SAME, i will give you all a piece of info that might help , today i talked to former hurricane director DR Neil Frank out of KHOU-TV in houstonon the phone today, the conversation went as follows, He talked about DENNIS stalling and putting florida in a threat, he also said that the system was stuck between the trough to the west and the low level east flow to the systems east, he said that DENNIS was starting to win the battel, as the southern end of the trough was showing signs of degenaration , and that a possible watch could be put up along the florida coast from miami to daytona, last we chatted about the possible track of cindy , helping aid DENNIS west, as she passes to the north of him het out flow and ridge following in tandum with her could help establish the western flow again also pulling the low north and off the maine coast, again this was my day im interested in hearing from you all now, Mike Anderson Florida WX>
Quiet (#22)
Posted by: Steve Hirschberger Location: Palm Bay FL
Posted On 08:41PM 26-Aug-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNTR*)

It's gotten awfully quiet out there. Trough forecast to hang in there, maybe dig in deeper over the weekend, and will probably take Dennis northward eventually. Dennis has been hanging tough all day, with shear continuing, but it almost seems to have anchored itself in the last satellite loops, not budging further west than 75W and not going north of 25n. Even with all the models in agreement as to path and eventual strength, it's going to be interesting to see how this all plays out. Dennis is stubborn and I wouldn't raise the all clear flag yet. .Anything can happen. Let's hear some chatter out there. Also, any thoiughts on Emily? This still may end up in a similar position as Dennis if it survives. Also seems to be a twist further out in the east Atlantic south of 10N. But back to Dennis. Any thoughts?
Dr.neil frank (#23)
Posted by: ROBERT Location: Stuart Florida 27.1N 80.1W
Posted On 09:01PM 26-Aug-1999 with id (QYYNRRWNQSQNRRT*)

Interesting, very interesting, what i am talking about is what Dr.Neil Frank had to say about dennis. I have been thinking the same as well,and the fact it came from Dr.Neil is interesting as well. i have always trusted what he had to say this new guy Jerry Gerold seems to be running the nhc diferently becuse the nhc has been pumping all sorts of BOLOGNA.


The models Do not matter-Much (#24)
Posted by: mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 09:17PM 26-Aug-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVRNRRP*)

I have noticed the NoGap model tonight and I have observed the outflow from Dennis on both the Ir and the Water Vapor It appears to me that even if Dennis makes no landfall as far as the eye of the storm is concerned, if Dennis gets as close to Florida as the models are forecasting, and moves only 6 miles per hour, Florida is gonna drown in rain. Flooding and coastal beach erosion is still quite likely even if no one needs to actually evacuate because of storm surge. However, the longer Dennis sits in one place, the more time he has to build into an awsome phenomenon.
Dennis and the Future (#25)
Posted by: Colleen Atwater Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 09:38PM 26-Aug-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNTY*)

I have to say that Dennis is quite a pain. What did Neil Frank have to say about the westerlies that were starting to affect the western side of the storm, Mike? Seems to me that it was pretty much inhibiting any development of Dennis today/tonite. As for Jerry Jarrell of the NHC, I have to say that they must be very confident of the track because after Andrew they would be taking a pretty big hit government/publicly wise if they didn't put up watches/warnings in time for people to get out of harms way. I think I remember last year with Bonnie everyone was asking the same questions, with the NHC being very confident (and correct, I might add) of that track. So at this point, I have to say....they better be right. Also, one other point I would like to add: if the Emergency Management/Government of Florida thought there was a serious threat (and there might be down the road) I think they would have the authority to issue watches/warnings if they thought it prudent. Of course, I could be wrong. But I don't think they would mess around. Thoughts?
Dennis (#26)
Posted by: Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 09:51PM 26-Aug-1999 with id (RPWNVYNTTNQX*)

Well, I am still sticking with my forecast of a northerly turn. The trough looks very formidable on water vapor imagery this evening and I see no reason why it will not turn Dennis northward. Steering currents over Dennis are obviously weak and, whatever the intensity of the trough, it should be enough to pull the system northward. I am also sticking with my intensity forecast. Dennis will remain a minimal hurricane for quite some time to come until it moves farther northward when conditions may become more favorable for strengthening. If Dennis somehow finds a way to the Florida coast, he will continue to be adversely affected by the shear and intensity would likely remain inside Category 1 strength.

As for Jerry Jarell, I would not bash him any. I, myself, don't see any bologna coming from NHC. How can a probable turn northwest and north be bologna?

Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.
TENNIS DENNIS IS THE BALL (#27)
Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 10:33PM 26-Aug-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNQWQ*)

I want to say that i am not impacting the florida coast with this system i am saying again over and over again a BRUSH, i am expecting that DENNIS will get his act together and spread out a bit more than he is now, it is in no way impossible to see a 100mph hurricane have tropical storm force winds reach out 150 miles, now even given the track it still has him 78.4 longitude not that i think he will be there at the time the models and NHC are thinking , but if you have a tracking map handy look at that position, that is in no way 200 miles from the florida coast, BRUSH even if he ends up at 77.5 he would brush the coast, so RON i want tio hear from you seen that you are going with the trough thing, and Ron what will you say if DENNIS sits and the trough moves out ,and as far as the secound punch im also seeing it and i think it will get caught up in the low that is heading up through the NEW ENGLAND area and should be off the maine coast by tomorrow afternoon, Mike Anderson florida Wx
GFDL (#28)
Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 10:51PM 26-Aug-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNQWQ*)

Well folks i have to tell you that im now getting ready to impact florida in a big way based on the latest GFDL and the BAMM,BAMD are all now takeing DENNIS to the florida coast.
Dennis Tennis (#29)
Posted by: Steve Hirschberger Location: Palm Bay FL
Posted On 11:02PM 26-Aug-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPQNVX*)

Frankly, I am tending to agree with Ron. I don't believe that Dennis will broaden out until it moves north of the central FL area AND the wind field due to the shear is restricted to the eastern and northern quads with this system. Remember when Bertha approached in 1996, we were told to get off the beach in Indialantic and we never got a breath of wind. I do believe, however that we shouldn't let down our guard on this one because its drifting again to the WNW, and anything can happen.
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