CFHC Talkback For News Story #80:
Newest Talkback: 09:33 PM 09-02 EDT

Tropical Storm Ernesto
07:55 AM EDT - 02 September 2000

Tropical depression eight has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Ernesto faster than expected. Ernesto is becoming better organized even though it is encountering some southerly sheer. Most models predict the sheer will die off soon giving Ernesto a better chance to strengthen. All eyes on Ernesto!

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)


Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [jc]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #7 (of 7 total)
Ernie (#1)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay
Posted On 08:29AM 02-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPQNQXY*)

Need to watch him. He will probably strengthen more than officially forecast as an upper level low to his west also moves west, reducing the immediate shear threat. He will prbably travle NW f0r a time, then bend back toward the west thereafter. He looks good on sat pix this am and should continue slow strengthening during the next 72 hours. Will be interesting to see how he reacts to all this systems to his west. But don't underestimate him. Even with a name like Ernie, this may be no Sesame Street, particularly beyond 72 hours. He may be in the Bahamas by Wednesday. Cheers!
Ernesto (#2)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: New Smyrna Beach, FL (Currently)
Posted On 08:37AM 02-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRRNPNUU*)

I love it when two headlines after each other conflict. That's what I love about hurricanes.

Nevertheless, John's been filling in here because I'm on the road once again, and currently back in Florida. Hopefully I can get some time today to go through all the info and make a post later tonight with some graphics.

Thanks for all the great input here, folks.

- Mike C.

shear (#3)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 10:21AM 02-Sep-2000 with id (VSNTRNQTQNYQ*)

Although te shear appears to be lessening somewhat, it looks like the center is temporarily outrunning the deep convection
Ernesto (#4)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 12:11PM 02-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRSNQXUNRQR*)

Great posts guys,,,Steve i agree with you. I usually don't post unless a system has the potential for development to try to give everyone my best thought on what is going to happen.
Ernesto as most everyone forcasted will have trouble gaining strength the next 2-3 days.Upper level winds are very hostile for development. Its very questionable on the upperlevel pattern at this time,,a hybrd low N of Hispaniola is forcasted to maybe come down to the surface. This would make a more favorible condition for ernesto to develop in 2 days,,but we're not sure on this,,if it doesn't and remains a trough,,ernesto should move NW later in time.
The path is simple,,first a WNW path today to become more W over the next 1-2 days,then a WNW to maybe NW turn leter. The west turn first is because he should be weak and under the low level flow,,,then the WNW to NW because of the Hyrb system or trough to the W of there. Note this hybrid does have a chance to develop also.
Elswhere a more interesting low is developing to the SE of Ernesto and is in very favorible conditions and should be monitured.
Keep up the good perdictions everyone.
This season is Like a Strip Club (#5)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 01:54PM 02-Sep-2000 with id (RPWNSVNRQRNQTV*)

Is it just me or has evry storm that developed this season at one or more times taken off their convection and bared all?

Well anyway Ernesto's LLCC is exposed to the SE of the convection.
Circulation in the bottom of the BOC (#6)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 04:26PM 02-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRPXNSQNRPY*)

has anyone noticed (while we are all looking at Ernesto) that a circulation has suddenly sprung up as noted. A circulation was noted the last 24 hrs or so drifting west but it had no convection.
It does now!


Comments?

IHS,

Bill

ps..looks like it is headed to Mx.
Ernesto (#7)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 05:33PM 02-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNQXX*)

Maybe the system we all wrote off a few days ago will be the one we should be watching...while Ernesto struggles against the shear, another system develops where they said it wouldn't...everyone here is doing a great job at posting their thoughts and insights on all of these systems....have a good night, I am going to a Hooters Cup Race here in Lakeland, when I come back.....who knows what I will find
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