CFHC Talkback For News Story #88:
Newest Talkback: 06:38 PM 09-11 EDT

TD#10 Forms off the East Coast
11:01 AM EDT - 11 September 2000

No sooner did the last story go up than the new depression formed.

Right now it's not moving much at all. And may drift westward a bit, but eventually it should go out to sea. The upper level conditions don't favor it getting much stronger than a weak-mid Tropical Storm. Nevertheless, I expect to see Florence later today.

NRL Info for TD#10

More to come...

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

StormCarib.com has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean.
Ouragans.com Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens.
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.

Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #9 (of 9 total)
The Big Picture (#1)
Posted by: David Location: Brevard/PSJ
Posted On 11:24AM 11-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNQQTNRRPNRTW*)

Hello,

If you go to:




http://sgihss3f.wwb.noaa.gov/data4/images/TROPICAL/atl/nwatl-wv-loop.html





The spinning low at 30.4/72.4 is probably going to come under shear and will not make it. Look at the huge pocket of dry air just over it. (the Bermuda area) If the low continues to move south it looks like it will be caught up in that trough and sucked out to the North East. Sich I live at 28.7/80.5, that is fine by me. Any different thoughts out there?


There it GOES-8 (#2)
Posted by: David Location: Brevard/PSJ
Posted On 12:39PM 11-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNQQTNRRPNRTW*)

Looking at the water vapor movement:


http://sgihss3f.wwb.noaa.gov/data4/images/TROPICAL/float/float-wv-loop.html


It looks like TD #10 is already being affected by the trough with a NE movement.

TD#10 (#3)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 01:04PM 11-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQVX*)

I think what you are seeing moving NE is the convection, not the center. The center is still moving (drifting, I should say) to the W/SW, with the thunderstorms now trying to wrap around that center. It is not expected to move very fast in any direction for the next 3 days, and there is plenty of moisture available to the west of it; should it stay out there as is predicted, the results could be very different (ala, Debby Lesson)...another one out there to watch is the one the one east of the Windward Islands. That one could be TD#11 by tomorrow if it keeps it up. Given the fact that the classified as non-tropical at 5:30am and is now forecast to become TS Florence later on today, I will just sit back and watch what it does very carefully.
Good Call (#4)
Posted by: clyde w. Location: orlando
Posted On 02:06PM 11-Sep-2000 with id (VSNWSNRQSNU*)

Colleen,

You are correct about the convection moving NE, and not the system. The visible satellite photos show this well, the IR satellite photos can be a bit misleading as they do not pick up the surface circulation very well. I also agree that the system east of the Lesser Antilles is looking better organized. Things are starting to "wake up" out there.

One other question. Does anyone know what the NHC is looking at in the Gulf? It certainly does not look organized enough to send out a plane.

Clyde
***TS FLORENCE HAS FORMED***** (#5)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 02:17PM 11-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQTU*)

Just found this:

WTNT45 KNHC 111807
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL

2 PM EDT MON SEP 11 2000

THIS IS A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO UPGRADE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN TO TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE...BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WINDS OF 64 KT AT 1000 FT IN CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE
AIRCRAFT HAS ALSO REPORTED A SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1000 MB...BUT THEY HAVE NOT YET BEEN IN THE CENTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD BUT THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

GOM (#6)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 02:22PM 11-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQTU*)

Clyde...I have no idea what they are looking at out there. I have a ? though about my previous post...if they have found a seal level pressure of 1000mb but have not yet been in the center, would you think the pressure would be higher or lower once they reach the center?
Thanks Colleen & Clyde (#7)
Posted by: David Location: Brevard/PSJ
Posted On 02:22PM 11-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNQQTNRRPNRTW*)

Obviously I am a novice, so I appreciate your input. I watch all of the different satellite feeds and it is sometimes hard to pick out all of the different nuances you can find in the different loops. Do you think it is better to look at the IR satellite photos or the WV photos?

Thanks
David (#8)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 02:27PM 11-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQTU*)

It is not easy to read images at all sometimes; however, I have found out that the best way to look at a vis/IR image is to find out where the NHC has put the llc and then watch it carefully...I used to think that the LLCC was where all the convection was...it just takes time and practice...and we will be happy to help you anytime you have a question. Jim Cantore on TWC stated that *if* this system continues to move towards the WSW, it is *possible* it will miss the trough and that Florida is definitely not out of the woods yet....I like Jim, I think he tells it like he sees it, doesn't just reread the NHC advisories, which is basically what all weather people do...we could do that!
Some Answers (Sort of) (#9)
Posted by: clyde w. Location: orlando
Posted On 02:38PM 11-Sep-2000 with id (VSNWSNRQSNU*)

David,

I want to preface this by saying that even though this has been a hobby of mine for many years (24 out of 30, to be exact), I am by no means a trained expert. With that in mind, I'll take a stab at your question. There are 3 general types of satellite photos, IR, or infrared, VIS, or visible, and WV, or water vapor. There are others as well, but I don't know those as well so we'll stick to these.

The VIS photo is best at showing the surface circulation. In many cases with developing storms, this can be away from the convection, such as the case with TD #10--now Florence. The VIS can help forecasters pinpoint the center of the storm, but as it is reliant on daylight, it is not available at night.

The IR satellite photo is derived from the tempature of the cloud tops, thus the most noticeable features of this satellite photo will be the deep convection with high cloud tops, which are very cold and picked up quite easily. This satellite photo is very helpful with well-developed hurricanes that have an eye, and deep convection around the center, making the photo useful for determining the strength of the storm.

The WV imagery can be a bit tricky, as it picks up the water content in the atmosphere. In a storm like Florence (weaker, and sheared), you probably will not be able to pick out the center at all. But at the same time the WV image is very useful in showing larger scale patterns which help determine where a storm will go.

Personally, I prefer the VIS imagery, especially the link listed on each post by the owner of this site. That is the NRL site which has a close up visible image that is very useful.

I know that was a lot, but I hope it helps!
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