CFHC Talkback For News Story #96:
Newest Talkback: 03:05 AM 09-16 EDT

TD#11, Florence, and More
03:49 PM EDT - 15 September 2000

Tropical Storm Florence is moving slowly toward Bermuda. Tropical Storm warnings are up for it.

TD#11 (Possibly Gordon later tonight or tomorrow) has reformed its center, from all indications I can see. A little to the North and East of the 11AM position. This makes things interesting for the Eastern Gulf Coast. Folks along there will want to watch this, along with everyone else in the Gulf coast.

East of the Caribbean islands, a new wave is looking good to form into TD#12 fairly soon (tomorrow perhaps).

Lot's going on, and tons of speculation with TD#11 abounds. Because of some shear, Florida is getting some offshoot rain from TD#11 already. But the core will not get close until Monday or Tuesday, I believe. All the Gulf must continue to watch this system. A complex situation is arising, so be ready to expect the unexpected.

I personally will be out of town until very late Sunday night, so the page is turned over completely to John until then. (I may get on once or twice over the weekend, but I wouldn't count on it.) On Sunday afternoon, John is heading to Texas, so there will be some time where we will not be able to make updates. (Until late Sunday night). The site will still run with all the automated code, and the comment areas will as well.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for TD#11. From Michael Bryson.

Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

A nice animated Water Vapor Image
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)
StormCarib.com has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean.
Ouragans.com Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens.
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]


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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #44 (of 44 total)

UPPER LOW OR SURFACE LOW (#1)
Posted by:
LONNY Location: HOLLYWOOD
Posted On 04:11PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYTNQWW*)


Looking at the latest wator vapor loops it looks like the upper low is entrenching in to the surface low. I am all lowed out.I don't know if this system is truely tropical or not.It looks like the upper low is moving s.e. in tandem with the surface or mid low-level low. I think I'll just wait and see.Other than that the wave East of the Lesser Antilles is looking better organized at this time. I think they are sending a plane to investigate tomorrow.

I Saw the Same Thing, Lonny (#2)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:29PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNQXR*)


It looks like it is trying to wrap around the newly formed LLCC to me....time will tell...but Mike C. is right...expect the unexpected...and what's new about that

TD#11 almost Gorden (#3)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 04:31PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWWNQSTNQRV*)


Hello All,
Well the 5pm advisory is out and the center has been repositioned to 21.7n..88.0 west and now is expected to take a more n-nw drift overnight instead of a nw. Florida watch out!!

Weather Report (#4)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 04:34PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWWNQSTNQRV*)


Hello All,
Conditions righht now have winds s-sw at 15mph abd increasing due to a precip band to our south moving up from TD#11.

Weather Report (#5)
Posted by: Richie Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Posted On 04:46PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNWV*)


Just had a little squall over here on the southeast coast of Florida. Wind gust to 28 mph and .25" of rain in a few minutes from some of the outflow of TD11.

Is it just me or ........... (#6)
Posted by: Teresa Location: Mobile, AL
Posted On 05:08PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RTNTNRUSNXX*)


is TWC still saying the LLCC is just off shore of the NW Yucantan? I thought they recognized it as reforming alittle further east earlier.

TD #12 (#7)
Posted by: clyde w. Location: orlando
Posted On 05:14PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (VSNWSNRQSNU*)


Just announced east of the Lesser Antilles. Forecast to be south of the Dominican Republic in 72 hours.

This Is What We All Have Been Waiting For!!!!!!!! (#8)
Posted by: Richie Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Posted On 05:38PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (VTNQRNQPUNQXW*)


Florence almost a hurricane again, TD 11 almost a tropical storm and TD 12 now forms!!!!! Who said the season was over

Order of Names? (#9)
Posted by: Debbie Location: PSJ, Florida
Posted On 05:46PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNSW*)


I have a simple question to anyone. If TD#12 becomes a T.S. before TD#11, will its name be Gordon? (I've noticed the local news has quit referring to TD#11 as "future Gordon"). I'm just curious. Great knowledge and discussions presented on this website by all commentators!!!

Debbie (#10)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 05:51PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNRPY*)


Yes, TD12 would be Gordon, and TD11 would be Helena...but I still think that TD11 will be Gordon by 11pm...or sooner...

Thanks, Colleen! (#11)
Posted by: Debbie Location: PSJ, Florida
Posted On 05:57PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNSW*)


I appreciate your answer. I agree with you on TD#11 becoming a T.S. first, but I was just curious about how it was done. Thank you, again for responding. Debbie

Brand New statement (#12)
Posted by:
Jim F. (http://flhurricane.com/jfaul/) Location: Ft. Lauderdale
Posted On 06:24PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPXNVQNQQSNQRQ*)


BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
545 PM CDT FRI SEP 15 2000

...CORRECTED STORM TITLE/NAME TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN
IN HEADER ONLY...

SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN HAS EMERGED
OFF THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN. THE SURFACE CIRCULATION ALSO
APPEARS TO HAVE REFORMED FURTHER EAST...NEAR 22.0N 87.5W...CLOSER TO
THE DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE IMAGERY FURTHER INDICATES THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS MAY NOW BE VERTICALLY
STACKED...AND THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR HAS ALSO DECREASED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. ALL OF THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ELEVEN MAY BE STARTING A PERIOD OF STEADY INTENSIFICATION AND THIS
SYSTEM MAY ALREADY BE A TROPICAL STORM. IF THIS APPARENT TREND
CONTINUES...THEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED
FURTHER EAST...OR TO THE RIGHT...OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE
INTENSIFICATION RATE MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED.

A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM
LATER THIS EVENING AROUND 7 PM CDT...OR 0000Z...AND WILL PROVIDE
MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON THE EXACT LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF
THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE.

FORECASTER STEWART




Brand New statement (#13)
Posted by:
Jim F. (http://flhurricane.com/jfaul/) Location: Ft. Lauderdale
Posted On 06:30PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPXNVQNQQSNQRQ*)


BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
545 PM CDT FRI SEP 15 2000

...CORRECTED STORM TITLE/NAME TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN
IN HEADER ONLY...

SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN HAS EMERGED
OFF THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN. THE SURFACE CIRCULATION ALSO
APPEARS TO HAVE REFORMED FURTHER EAST...NEAR 22.0N 87.5W...CLOSER TO
THE DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE IMAGERY FURTHER INDICATES THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS MAY NOW BE VERTICALLY
STACKED...AND THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR HAS ALSO DECREASED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. ALL OF THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ELEVEN MAY BE STARTING A PERIOD OF STEADY INTENSIFICATION AND THIS
SYSTEM MAY ALREADY BE A TROPICAL STORM. IF THIS APPARENT TREND
CONTINUES...THEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED
FURTHER EAST...OR TO THE RIGHT...OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE
INTENSIFICATION RATE MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED.

A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM
LATER THIS EVENING AROUND 7 PM CDT...OR 0000Z...AND WILL PROVIDE
MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON THE EXACT LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF
THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE.

FORECASTER STEWART




Brand New statement (#14)
Posted by:
Jim F. (http://flhurricane.com/jfaul/) Location: Ft. Lauderdale
Posted On 06:30PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPXNVQNQQSNQRQ*)


BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
545 PM CDT FRI SEP 15 2000

...CORRECTED STORM TITLE/NAME TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN
IN HEADER ONLY...

SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN HAS EMERGED
OFF THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN. THE SURFACE CIRCULATION ALSO
APPEARS TO HAVE REFORMED FURTHER EAST...NEAR 22.0N 87.5W...CLOSER TO
THE DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE IMAGERY FURTHER INDICATES THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS MAY NOW BE VERTICALLY
STACKED...AND THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR HAS ALSO DECREASED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. ALL OF THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ELEVEN MAY BE STARTING A PERIOD OF STEADY INTENSIFICATION AND THIS
SYSTEM MAY ALREADY BE A TROPICAL STORM. IF THIS APPARENT TREND
CONTINUES...THEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED
FURTHER EAST...OR TO THE RIGHT...OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE
INTENSIFICATION RATE MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED.

A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM
LATER THIS EVENING AROUND 7 PM CDT...OR 0000Z...AND WILL PROVIDE
MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON THE EXACT LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF
THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE.

FORECASTER STEWART




Sorry (#15)
Posted by:
Jim F. (http://flhurricane.com/jfaul/) Location: Ft. Lauderdale
Posted On 06:32PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPXNVQNQQSNQRQ*)


That triple post was a rookie mistake by a veteran..Sorry!!

Intersting weekend (#16)
Posted by: William Location: Crystal River, Fl.
Posted On 06:34PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTUNVQNQUX*)


Looks like it will be a very intersting weekend!!!
All of FLORIDA keep your eyes open for Gordon!!!
Good luck to everyone!!

misspelled (#17)
Posted by: William Location: Crystal River, Fl.
Posted On 06:37PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTUNVQNQUX*)


Woops i misspelled interesting---Sorry!!!

GFDL MODEL (#18)
Posted by: William Location: Crystal River, Fl.
Posted On 06:45PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTUNVQNQUX*)


The GFDL model has Td-11(GORDON) coming in right above tampa. looks like around Cedar key.
I know its early & we know how reliable the models are(ha ha).But, paul on channel 13--fox
said it was one the more reliable models. Well see
only time will tell

This Is Significant (#19)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 06:58PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYUNRQS*)


This is a significant change from the 5pm advisory....guess what? Forecasters changed; Magoo left and Popeye came on board. I believe we will see a special advisory at 8pm declaring this TS Gordon. and maybe some watches posted...

p.s. I also think that NHC stopped by and got the hint of where to look. LOL

Jim Cantore (#20)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 06:59PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYUNRQS*)


Sorry, Jim...you went to wrong location....have a good time in Galveston.

Oh No!! (#21)
Posted by: Teresa Location: Mobile, AL
Posted On 07:30PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RTNTNRUSNXX*)


Local weather channel shows models of TD #11 moving Northerly. If TD #11 continues on this track, Mobile is surely in the hot seat. Still early and anything can happen.

Impressive (#22)
Posted by: Rudy (
http://†ÿ€©@hèX) Location: Cocoa Beach
Posted On 07:32PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNQPQ*)


TD 11 is beginning to look like the most impressive TD I have seen;). Can't see the
llcc, but the main convection seems to be drifting north or just a shade east of north. Not being a weather expert, Why does the NHC keep wanting to push the system to the west? The over all steering does not look westward? Am I being fooled by upper lever sheer?

Rudy

Colleen (#23)
Posted by: Gary (
http://†) Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 07:36PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)


Have you seen any new T#s? Looking over the gulf I can see low clouds moving by that remind me of elana 1995. Feels very Tropical right know

GFDL (#24)
Posted by: Gary (
http://†) Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 07:42PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)


WHXX04 KWBC 152324

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP HURRICANE MODEL..GFDL MMM...FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL STORM ELEVEN 11L



INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 15



FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 21.6 87.8

6 21.8 88.0 325./ 2.7

12 22.4 87.9 3./ 5.8

18 23.1 87.6 25./ 7.8

24 23.8 87.2 29./ 7.5

30 24.4 86.5 48./ 8.8

36 25.2 85.8 42./10.2

42 26.2 84.8 48./13.5

48 27.6 83.5 40./18.6

54 29.2 82.5 31./18.0

60 30.6 81.6 34./16.0

66 32.0 80.6 36./16.3

72 33.4 79.5 38./16.8

78 34.7 78.3 42./16.0



FLOOD WATCH (#25)
Posted by: Richie Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Posted On 08:01PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNWV*)


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN FLORIDA HAS ISSUED A FLOOD
WATCH...EFFECTIVE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS:

CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 WILL
COMBINE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST
OF SATURDAY. AREAL RAIN TOTALS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM
2 TO 3 INCHES...BUT LOCAL AMOUNTS WILL EXCEED 5 INCHES.

THE HEAVY RAIN MAY CONTINUE LATER INTO THE WEEKEND...AND FINAL
STORM TOTALS COULD BE SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER...DEPENDING ON THE
ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM.



Gordon (#26)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 08:07PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYUNQXX*)


Gordon will probably declared soon...bet on watches as early as tonight to tommorrow morning...guaranteed.

Soon to be Gordon (#27)
Posted by: L.T. Location: Pensacola, FL
Posted On 08:09PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNQUX*)


I'm thining a track between New Orleans and Apalachicola is the target. Reminds me a lot of Hurricane Opal in 1995.

yikes (#28)
Posted by:
troy Location: titusville,fl
Posted On 08:10PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (VSNQVNTVNQVQ*)


that last gfdl run looks like it cuts across central florida....

gordan by 11pm? (#29)
Posted by:
troy Location: titusville,fl
Posted On 08:19PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (VSNQVNTVNQVQ*)


TCUAT
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
805 PM CDT FRI SEP 15 2000

A U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN AND HAS FOUND THE BROAD
CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION FURTHER TO THE EAST...NEAR 22.2N 87.4W...
OF OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. WINDS TO NEAR 30 MPH WERE ALSO
FOUND ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION...WHICH IS THE
STRONGEST OBSERVED SO FAR WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS ALSO DROPPED TO 1003 MB...AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ELEVEN MAY BE UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM GORDON AT 10 PM CDT...
BASED ON WHAT THE INTENSITY OF THE WINDS ARE ON THE EAST SIDE ONCE
THE INVESTIGATIVE FLIGHT IS COMPLETED.

just when the media says its a slow season!

center further east (#30)
Posted by: William Location: Crystal River, Fl.
Posted On 08:20PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTUNVQNQSP*)


They found the LLcc further east at22.2-n 87.4-w looking very interesting!!!!

Looking very interesting! (#31)
Posted by: L.T. Location: Pensacola, FL
Posted On 08:43PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNQVV*)


Anyone know if the shear is supposed to decrease? Please respond.

Looks like they are going to Upgrade 11 at 11 (#32)
Posted by: ORLANDODUDE Location: O-TOWN, FLORIDA
Posted On 09:01PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RQVNWXNRRXNYR*)


According to the latest model runs, they are calling this thing tropical storm gordon.. See below... even some of the previous models are taking this storm NE...

TROPICAL STORM GORDON (AL1100) ON 20000916 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...
000916 0000 000916 1200 000917 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.2N 87.4W 23.3N 86.9W 25.2N 86.3W
BAMM 22.2N 87.4W 23.5N 87.3W 25.2N 87.2W
A90E 22.2N 87.4W 23.5N 86.2W 24.9N 85.2W
LBAR 22.2N 87.4W 23.0N 86.9W 24.5N 86.4W
SHIP 35KTS 43KTS 51KTS

...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...
000917 1200 000918 0000 000919 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.5N 85.6W 30.1N 84.8W 35.6N 80.5W
BAMM 27.2N 87.3W 28.9N 87.8W 32.0N 88.8W
A90E 26.8N 84.7W 28.8N 84.2W 32.5N 83.9W
LBAR 26.5N 85.5W 28.8N 83.6W 34.2N 77.1W
SHIP 58KTS 65KTS 73KTS



Just wondering (#33)
Posted by: Teresa Location: Mobile, AL
Posted On 09:30PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RTNTNRUSNXX*)


If Jim Cantore will stay in TX or move to a more probable location to cover the system.

They have someone in NO and Tampa (I think) (#34)
Posted by: L.T. Location: Pensacola, FL
Posted On 09:36PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQXT*)


So put Cantore in Pensacola or Panama City.

T.S. GORDON AT 11PM (#35)
Posted by: Richie Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Posted On 10:00PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNWV*)


Recon has found a 59 knot flight level wind and pressure of 1000 mb at 9:18 pm.

"Rapidly Intensifying" (#36)
Posted by: clyde
Posted On 10:11PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPWNVYNQQYNYY*)


Local station stated tonight that TD #11 will be declared TS Gordon with 50mph winds at 11 and that a recon flight had determined that the storm was "showing signs of rapid intensification". They also said that it is beginning to look like west Florida is the target for this storm.

Intensification (#37)
Posted by:
Bruce Location: Palm Bay Florida
Posted On 10:22PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (VTNQRNQPTNQVQ*)


I have been following the IR loop since about 4Pm today, I agree there seems to be rapid intensification of this system. Can anyone tell me what the large black areas are on the IR loop?

Direction (#38)
Posted by: mike Location: Clearwater Beach
Posted On 10:31PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVQNRTPNRPS*)


Is it me or does it look like strong westerlies are pushing this more easterly? PLease respond.

More Easterly (#39)
Posted by: Richie Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Posted On 10:37PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNWV*)


Hi Mike,

I see the same thing. If it keeps up my prediction is this thing will hit SW Florida(Naples, Ft.Myers, Sarasota).

Intensification....Tropical Storm.....where is it heading..? who knows..... (#40)
Posted by: Rick Location: Mobile
Posted On 10:37PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNUX*)


I think most of us are thinking the storm is heading our way....I suppose for the excitement...right, Teresa? Anyway...I think because of the slow movement of the storm....it is way too early to tell. The weather channel indicated it will be upgraded.

I remember Opal. It became a cat 4-5 storm withing 24-36 hours. I think this thing could easily be a powerful hurricane.



Hey Rick (#41)
Posted by: Teresa Location: Mobile, AL
Posted On 10:44PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RTNTNRUSNXX*)


I have to admit to the rush of tracking a system that has the potential of threatening this part of the Gulf Coast.

I agree with you. All the local stations along the Gulf Coast give the hint its heading in that particular direction. But we really dont know, just alot of guessing.

Northeast @ 5 (#42)
Posted by: clyde
Posted On 10:45PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPWNVYNQQYNYY*)


Recently heard on the 10:00 news that the storm was moving NE @ 5mph, but I don't know if this will verify with the official update. If it does, it may change the official forecast dramatically.

Also, TWC said something about "dry air" entraining on the west side of the system and weakening it, right when NHC is about to upgrade. These two groups seem to have been on different pages since day one with this system!

Gordon (#43)
Posted by: mike Location: Clearwater Beach
Posted On 10:46PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVQNRTPNRPS*)


Cat 4 or 5 would be very scary. I could handle a Cat 1. Looks to me with that strong West to East flow that it will impact Florida. The only way it won't is if the strong Westerlies lift prior to 48 hours. Just my opinion.

Hurricane Watch (#44)
Posted by: mike Location: Clearwater Beach
Posted On 11:05PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVQNRTPNRPS*)


Local news just reported a Hurricane WaTCH FOR THE tAMPA Bay area. MAx winds are at 60mph.


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