CFHC Talkback For News Story #99:
Newest Talkback: 03:00 PM 09-11 EDT

Tropical Depression #9 and Another Little Storm
12:20 PM EDT - 11 September 1999

The busy weeks for us continue, and I've finally managed to get a chance to write a new update. We're suffering from sporadic downtimes as well. Today I will try to isolate where the problem is coming from. I may redirect the site to our local system in an attempt to track the crash bug down. (Ie the site will be slow temporarily while boundschecker is running off a dialup)

Tropical Depression #9 has formed in the Atlantic, and we will have time to monitor it later.

There is also the matter of the other storm, Floyd. Which, by all indications, is going to be trouble. Why? Well it's growing in strength and the track puts it close to Florida. Models take it in various directions. It's expected to move more toward the west later, but the GFDL now trends it toward the Carolinas, while the MRF model takes it into south Florida. As a major hurricane, this one will be yet another storm to watch like a hawk over the next few days. The Bahamas may have to deal with it also. But by no means is the track a sure thing.

We'll be adding things here and there throughout today, so keep an eye out.
For more information on Hurricane Floyd see the Current Storm Spotlight for Hurricane Floyd.

For more information on TD#9 see the Current Storm Spotlight for TD#9.
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
GFDL Model & Plot
Weather Channel Caribbean Sat Image
Intellicast Caribbean IR Loop
Intellicast Atlantic IR Loop

More Sat images: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.


- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #11 (of 11 total)
THE NEW WEB SITE (#1)
Posted by: Mike Anderson (http://www.fortunecity.com/greenfield/tigris/622/weather/ectwp.htm)
Posted On 01:15PM 11-Sep-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPQNQYS*)

Good after noon , im postint to give you all the new web site address, id like to take this time to let you know about the new site, the site will allow you to also post a comment, however this function is still under construction and will be ready very soon,The new site will also have an open storm chat that will be hosted by my friend and weather WX Live Storm Center, please feel free to use the chat no membership needed, but please keep the room for weather chat, Also i want to make it clear that the new site in no way should replace this one, as Mike C is a great guy to chat with and had given you a great site also,i only wanted to add another site to give you all a secound tool to have, Please feel free to use the storn chat anytime now, as some of you who have been posting can now meet eachother and chat live, again enjoy the site we will be adding more and more as times go's on, Mike thank you for this great site and please let's chat again i enjoyed our last, Mike Anderson Florida Wx.
Links (#2)
Posted by: Mike Cornelius [CFHC] (http://www.flhurricane.com) Location: New Smyrna Beach, FL
Posted On 01:39PM 11-Sep-1999 with id (RPVNRRXNRSTNSU*)

I went ahead and added it to the proper links page on here. I'm of the mindset the more links the better because there is always more to learn.

I'm thinking Floyd won't direclty (landfall) effect Florida right now, but that could change. Basing it off the MRF alone is a little questionable at the moment. I'll see later, however.


Models (#3)
Posted by: Steve Hirschberger Location: Palm Bay
Posted On 01:41PM 11-Sep-1999 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNQXT*)

For some reason my comment didn't post earlier. The models now seem to be backing off on the westward track and head Floyd more towards the Carolinas according to the latest TPC discussion, particularly the GFDL and LBAR. Though the ETA heads it straight for south Florida. When models begin to change like this I get the feeling they're ready to move the track to the right again. It is way premature to say that this storm will hit somewhere along the Florida coast. My Money is with it taking a more NW track after 72 hours as is historically the case with a storm like this. I don't see the strong ridge developing that the Global models predicted. That would be the mechanism for turning this thing due west, and possibly why the models are backing off on the west track. Will be interesting to see what the UKMET run, and the next set of runs has on Floyd. Bet they move the track to the right (hope so) Anyone have any more recent data out there?
Floyd (#4)
Posted by: Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 02:12PM 11-Sep-1999 with id (RPWNVYNTTNSY*)

Examining the scenario with Floyd this afternoon, I see an increasing threat to the east of coast of Florida. Frankly, the situation looks scary. The future movement of Floyd is entirely dependent on the strength and timing of the trough that will be developing over the central and eastern U.S. The trough will turn Floyd northward, but when? Looking at all the computer models, there are generally two tracks:

1. Floyd directly/nearly strikes Florida

2. Floyd moves north before reaching Florida, thus threatening the Carolinas.

I'll pick apart some of the models now:

The MRF moves Floyd directly into south Florida, then curving the storm north across the interior of the state. This track is scary to say the least. The AVN is scary as well, bringing Floyd due west through 72 hours with no signs of turning. The Canadian SEF is very interesting. It has Floyd paralleling the east coast of Florida in about 96 hours. The UKMET moves Floyd due west like the AVN. The GFDL turns Floyd west and then northwest, possibly threatening the Carolinas. BAMM and BAMD bring Floyd west-northwest potentially threatening Florida. The LBAR moves Floyd a tad more north than the BAMM and BAMD, likely moving the storm north of Florida. The A90E turns Floyd a little farther north and quicker than the LBAR. The ECMWF threatens the southeast coast from Georgia to North Carolina over time. The NOGAPS moves Floyd similar to Dennis's track before he turned, hence not landfalling the storm at all.

In my opinion, the NOGAPS is the most errant of the models. I don't see the trough developing quick enough for this track to take place. All the other models are legitimate, however.

The forecast for Floyd is an extremely tough one to make, thus I will not predict an exact landfall yet. I warn you, however, that Floyd may have the edge on the trough. This means that Floyd could make landfall in Florida before the trough turns him north. Again, I am not making any forecasts.

As for intensity, Floyd will maintain his strength for the next 24 hours with only small strengthening as he passes through a region of shear associated with an upper level trough. Once the shear diminishes, Floyd should continue to strengthen, very possibily to Category 4 strength before landfall.

God Bless You,
Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.
Floyd Models and comments (#5)
Posted by: Bill
Posted On 02:26PM 11-Sep-1999 with id (SXNSPNQVWNQUP*)

Ron,

Agree with you 100%! Good analysis. Think this is a Florida threat, I'll go for a hybrid between a Fl coast skimmer and up the middle (of Fl)..somewhere in that range.

IHS,

Bill-Fl
Thanks for all the help (#6)
Posted by: Mary-(Not Nary) Location: Lakeland
Posted On 02:43PM 11-Sep-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVRNRQ*)

I want to thank all of you for your insights whether they are perfect or not. I remember Andrew and I want to be prepared, but dont have a lot of money. I live in a crackerbox subdivision that is adequate for thunderstorms but if I understand what I have heard from the huricane sites my roof and garage doors will be the first to go in a sustained storm. By the time the media is sure enough of its call, there will not be time enough to evacuate and it will take me 8 hours to drive to what might not be a safe place after I get there. I feel you are doing a fantastic service to those of us who are lucky enough to have found this site. Thanks again. I am calm, and will be reading every word you print.
Vortex message (#7)
Posted by: Rob
Posted On 02:56PM 11-Sep-1999 with id (QYYNRRWNQWSNRPV*)


Hi i was just reading the latest RECONNAISSANCE
message and they are reporting a closed eye wall
now and a pressure of 966 millibars Up 4 millibars scence the 11:00am advisory
FLOYD TURNS TO THE WEST NORTH WEST!! (#8)
Posted by: Rob
Posted On 04:56PM 11-Sep-1999 with id (QYYNRRWNQWSNRPV*)


I just got 5:00 oclock advisory Floyd turns to the WEST NORTH WEST.
What does this mean for south florida will it come close like some models were sujesting earlyer or will it turn north and affect the carolinas?. only time will tell only time will tell.
New Websight (#9)
Posted by: Rob
Posted On 05:03PM 11-Sep-1999 with id (QYYNRRWNQWSNRPV*)


I went to the new websight and went on the live chat and knowone was there i was very upset it seemed pretty cool.

In other words i like the new websight but we shouldent forget this oneit has been with us a long time.
West Palm Beach has made the 10 percent (#10)
Posted by: Mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 05:56PM 11-Sep-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVRNUU*)

The newest probabilities out gives WestPB 10 Percent/11 percent probability for strike by Tues. night will this get greater with time?
Floyd and Models (#11)
Posted by: Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Forida
Posted On 06:00PM 11-Sep-1999 with id (RPWNVYNTTNRRR*)

The forecast models have been highly divergent as of late. The UKMET has entirely changed from previous runs and re-curves Floyd before it even makes landfall. I have a hard time accepting this forecast which is now even farther east than the NOGAPS which shifted slightly west during the latest run. Regardless, Florida is under no less of a threat. Both the AVN and MRF models bring Floyd directly into Florida. Furthermore, the BAMM and BAMD have Floyd coming very close to east-central Florida in 72 hours. Most of the other models have Floyd threatening primarily the Carolinas.

Basically, the door is wide open for Floyd to go virtually anywhere from west to north. Because of the considerable uncertainty of Floyd's future movement, I am still holding off on a landfall forecast. However, in any case, I believe that the east coast of Florida will see some fairly significant impact from Floyd even if the storm remains offshore.

God Bless You,
Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.
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